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Additional Reading from MarketBeat
Freeport-McMoRan: Grasberg Restarts, Now the Real Work BeginsAuthored by Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 4/24/2026. 
Key Points
- Freeport stock fell over 10% as Grasberg production targets were cut despite an earlier-than-expected restart.
- Strong copper and gold prices continue to support the company’s long-term earnings outlook.
- Analysts remain bullish, suggesting the pullback could present an opportunity for patient investors.
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Mining stocks can be complex investments. But the structural case for Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) heading into earnings was straightforward. Unfortunately, that’s why FCX plunged more than 12% after delivering its report. The trigger was the company’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, where a mud rush forced a suspension of operations.
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The good news in the report was that Freeport was able to commence initial mining in March, beating its prior estimate for a restart sometime in the quarter. The bad news is that production is down. In January the company targeted 100,000 tons per day (t/d) by the second half of the year; that target has since been reduced to about 60,000 t/d for the same period, with a revised goal of roughly 90,000 t/d by the second quarter of 2027. The culprit is an increase in “wet drawpoints,” which will require modifications that are expected to run through March 2027. Copper and Gold Prices Strengthen the Long-Term Bull CaseThe Grasberg ramp-up is an issue investors should watch closely. But is it a reason for a 12% sell-off? One reason to think the stock could rebound is the strong outlook for copper. Demand for copper is at record levels and is expected to increase over the next few years. That’s lifting the price of copper, which jumped to an average of $5.78 per pound in Q1 2026 from $4.44 in Q1 2025 — roughly a 30% increase. However, Freeport is more than a copper story. The company also mines gold, which is trading at $4,889 an ounce as of this writing, up from $3,072 an ounce in April 2025. By 2030, Freeport projects Grasberg could produce up to 1.7 billion pounds of copper along with approximately 1.2 million ounces of gold. If current prices hold (and many forecasts call for further increases), gold helps cover costs while copper production should bolster earnings. Freeport’s Earnings Show Strength Beyond GrasbergFreeport’s Q1 2026 earnings report was solid but mixed. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.57 beat expectations of $0.47, while revenue came in light at $6.23 billion versus forecasts near $6.4 billion. The revenue picture looks stronger on a year-over-year basis: the $6.2 billion represented a meaningful increase from $5.7 billion in Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA also rose year over year, from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion. For investors, that indicates that while Grasberg still matters, the rest of Freeport’s portfolio remains resilient. That suggests Grasberg’s recovery is likely to contribute incremental earnings rather than being the sole driver of growth already priced into FCX. Indonesia Agreement Removes a Key OverhangAdding to the long-term bull case is reduced friction with the Indonesian government. Freeport signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Indonesia in February that extends operating clarity in the Grasberg district beyond the 2041 expiration. Under the agreement, Freeport retains its current 48.76% stake in PT Freeport Indonesia through 2041, then transfers an additional 12% to the government at no cost, leaving it with roughly 37% from 2042 onward. That longstanding overhang has been eased, which strengthens the long-term production story. Is the Post-Earnings Sell-Off a Buying Opportunity?In the weeks leading up to earnings, analysts were mostly bullish on FCX. Many new price targets sit above the consensus target of $65.66, and 18 of the 22 analysts on MarketBeat rate the stock a Buy. Institutional investors also continue to add to positions, and analysts are forecasting earnings growth of about 35% over the next 12 months. That makes the company’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 24X look more attractive. In short, FCX has a history of dipping after earnings, so this may be a case of history repeating itself — especially for a stock that is still up more than 64% in the past 12 months even after this pullback. That said, the sell-off appears overdone. It may simply be a case of a good-but-not-great report arriving on a day when the broader market was weak, which can create buying opportunities for patient investors. The downside risk: FCX could test a level near $52, roughly its 150-day simple moving average. The post-earnings decline occurred on high volume, indicating conviction behind the selling. FCX followed a similar path in September/October 2025, crossing below the 150-day SMA before recovering. Repeating that pattern would imply another roughly 15% decline — not unusual for commodity-levered names. However, the 150-day SMA is still sloping upward, suggesting the underlying trend remains bullish, as do copper prices. If FCX can hold support around its 50-day SMA, the stock could test the current consensus price target. |
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