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More Reading from MarketBeat
Wall Street Loves TJX, But Is the Stock Still a Good Deal for Investors?Reported by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Published: 5/3/2026. 
Key Points
- TJX’s stock has been on a strong run for years, driven by steady demand for its off-price brands, bringing consumers into stores even as online retail dominates.
- The company has consistently delivered earnings beats, and the most recent quarter was another example, with both earnings and revenue coming in ahead of expectations.
- While the outlook remains positive, guidance points to a more measured pace of growth, which, with the stock already near highs, may mean more moderate gains from here.
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TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE: TJX) has continued to deliver standout performance, fueling a powerful rally and cementing its reputation as a Wall Street favorite. Still, after a strong run and a more cautious outlook from management, investors are asking how much upside remains. In an era dominated by online shopping, TJX has bucked the trend: its off-price brands — T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods — have continued to attract shoppers. That resilience is notable given weak consumer sentiment and spending pressure among lower- and middle-income households.
That steady demand has helped drive a long-term rise in the stock. Since early 2009, when shares traded in the low single digits, TJX has trended higher. It is now trading around $156, up roughly 120% over the past five years and more than 20% over the past 12 months. A Strong Quarter Caps Off Another Impressive YearTJX has consistently delivered strong results, with earnings per share often beating expectations. Its latest quarter continued that pattern. In its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report on Feb. 25, TJX posted earnings of $1.43 per share, up from $1.23 a year earlier and $0.05 above analysts’ estimates. Revenue rose nearly 9% year over year to $17.74 billion, roughly $383 million ahead of forecasts. The company recorded gains across both home and apparel, driven by a higher average basket and more customer transactions. Consolidated comparable sales increased 5% — matching the prior-year rate and exceeding the company’s plan. Adjusted pre-tax profit margin improved to 12.2%, up 60 basis points versus the prior year. Company Issues More Cautious 2027 GuidanceDespite the strong quarter, TJX shares dipped about 1% after the report, largely on guidance that signals a more measured pace of growth. CEO Ernie Herrman said on the earnings call that “Q1 is off to a strong start,” but management’s outlook for fiscal 2027 was conservative. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, TJX expects consolidated comparable sales to rise 2% to 3%, a pretax profit margin of 10.3% to 10.4%, and diluted EPS of $0.97 to $0.99. For the full fiscal year, the company projects consolidated comparable sales up 2% to 3%, a pretax profit margin of 11.7% to 11.8%, and diluted EPS of $4.93 to $5.02. Wall Street Remains Bullish on TJXAnalysts largely shrugged off the cautious guidance. Following the report, two analysts upgraded TJX, two reiterated Buy ratings, and two raised price targets. Of the 25 analysts covering the stock, all rate it a Buy, including four Strong Buys. Price targets indicate more modest upside from current levels. The average 12-month price target is $167.55, implying under 10% upside from today’s price. Among 17 analysts with price targets, five expect the stock to decline over the next year (the lowest target is $133). The remaining targets range from $162 to $188, with the highest implying about 19% upside. Where Does Valuation Stand After the Run?After a long run higher, valuation is getting attention. TJX trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 32X, above the broader retail industry average near 25X, but roughly in line with direct peers such as Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) and Burlington Stores Inc. (NYSE: BURL), which trade near 34X. Those competitors have also posted strong stock gains: Ross is up more than 60% over the past year and Burlington has gained over 40%, underscoring strength across the off-price retail space. On a price-to-sales basis, TJX trades around 2.9X, versus roughly 3.2X for Ross and about 1.7X for Burlington. TJX’s Story Remains Strong, But Growth Could ModerateThe company’s model continues to resonate with shoppers, supporting steady traffic and consistent results. Yet guidance points to a slower growth rate than recent years, so investors will be watching the first-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report on May 20 for indications of how the year may unfold. Given TJX’s track record of beating estimates and the broadly bullish analyst sentiment, there may still be upside. However, after the stock’s strong run, future gains may arrive at a more moderate pace than investors have become accustomed to. |
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