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Source: The Economic Times |
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Why these cables matter? |
Undersea cables are thin fiber-optic lines that lie on the seabed. They send information as pulses of light across thousands of miles. There are about 600 cables across the globe. More than 95% of global internet traffic moves through them. Satellites only play a small role now. Cables are much faster and can carry more data. A single cable can transmit terabits of information every second. |
States’ entities, businesses and individuals depends on them. Indeed, these cables allow many daily actions to take place. This includes: |
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The spread of AI and other technological advances led to an even growing demand. |
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Overview for the Middle East region |
As can be seen from the map below, the Straits of Bab El-Mandeb (BAM) and Ormuz are digital bottlenecks in the Middle East. Active cables in Ormuz include: |
AAE-1 (Asia to Africa to Europe), FALCON (India and Sri Lanka to Europe), GBICS (Gulf states), SEA-ME-WE 5 (Southeast Asia to Middle East to Western Europe).
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Some of these cables go all the way to the Red Sea like AAE-1 and SEA-ME-WE 5. The BAM strait also host other cables. These include: |
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Cables in the BAM and Red Sea are crucial. They represent over 17% of global traffic. They also allow 80 to 90% of communications between Europe and Asia. |
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Source: UN International Telecommunication Union) |
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Challenges |
Incidents. Incidents on cables are very common. There are about 200 incidents per year worldwide. They are mostly due to fishing and anchors. Most of the time they are unvoluntary. But in some cases, they are the result of sabotage. A few years ago, cables near Norway and the Shetland Islands were damaged. This raised fears of sabotage linked to great-power rivalry. |
Repair. In some areas, repair is difficult. Special ships are required. They must receive permits to enter a state’s waters. Then they must remain stationary during the repair. This makes them vulnerable in hostile places. Plus, there are solely 5 vessels in the region. Only one is currently in the Gulf. Repairs usually take around 40 days. But in some cases, it took months, like in the Red Sea. |
Threats from Iran and its proxies. Iran already used the Strait of Ormuz to disrupt shipping, trade, and energy. It is now turning to the digital sphere. Lawmakers are discussing a plan to charge tech companies annual fees for cables that run beneath the strait. The companies include Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. They also require them to operate under Iran’s laws and give local companies exclusive rights to maintenance and repair. Emboldened by its blockade of the strait, Iran keeps pushing for greater leverage. State-linked media suggested that damages to the cables could cost the global economy millions of dollars per day is fees were not paid. There are now worries that Iran could damage the cables in Ormuz, or in the BAM strait. Alongside the direct threat to the cables, attacks on vessels can also lead to damages. This is part of the Houthis’ tactics in the Red Sea. Two years ago, Houthis attacked a ship in the Red Sea. The ship’s anchor damaged 3 cables. It took 6 months to repair them. Plus, instability in the region delayed installation of cable systems. |
What could happen? |
First, it seems very unlikely that tech companies, or the U.S., will concede to Iran’s will. Plus, any sabotage on the cables will cause an escalation in that war. But also, these cables, in Ormuz and in the BAM, are crucial for Asia’s connectivity with the Gulf and Europe. If Iran does not care so much about the EU, it does care about China. Damaging these cables will inevitably impact China. Connections with the Gulf and Europe would be slower, and it could impact trade and data flow. That’s a bet Iran is likely not willing to make with its number one customer. |
For Gulf states, there will be impacts. None of them rely a 100% on submarine cables for their international connectivity requirements. As can be seen on the map below, most of them also have terrestrial networks. This provides some sort of redundancy. But the resilience it brings is mostly regional. International connectivity still overwhelmingly depends on submarine cable routes. Plus, terrestrial networks might not be sufficient to handle a complete rerouting of traffic. These latter can also be subject to attacks. |
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Source: UN International Telecommunication Union |
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The threat on data centers is also a reality. Amazon Web Services data centers were struck by Iran in the UAE and Bahrain. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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