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Lowe's Finds Support at $215 After Q1 Earnings Sell-Off
By Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 5/22/2026.
Key Points
- Lowe's stock price decline is over; what comes next includes capital returns and eventual price recovery.
- Cash flow enables balance sheet improvements and capital returns in 2026: share buybacks are a catalyst for future quarters.
- Analysts set the floor for this market and indicate a 20% upside potential.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
While Lowe’s Corporation (NYSE: LOW) and competitors like Home Depot (NYSE: HD) face headwinds and hurdles in 2026, the technical setup is shaping up for a rebound in the back half of the year. Although Q1 earnings results were solid, soft guidance led to post-release market weakness, which is the more important factor right now.
The post-release weakness in LOW shares pushed the stock below $215 and triggered a strong response: buying. Whether the buyers were bottom-fishers, value hunters, or income investors does not really matter. What matters is that support was confirmed at a level that has been in play for years.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidFirst reached in the wake of the COVID-19 scare and the subsequent market surge, $215 is now a critical pivot point for this market. The question is whether Lowe’s can sustain and grow its business from 2026 levels, or whether it is facing a contraction. Based on store-count growth and positive Q1 comps, the likely outcome is that Lowe’s can continue to grow from this level, generating ample cash flow and paying investors along the way. Growth is unlikely to be robust, but there is still hope that the housing market eventually thaws. As it stands, Lowe’s growth is centered on market share gains, digital initiatives, and its pro segment.
Lowe’s Outperforms in Q1: Cautious Guidance Overshadowed Financial Strength
Lowe’s had a decent Q1, with revenue of $23.10 billion, up 10.4%. The growth was driven in large part by the FBM acquisition, but underlying organic strength was also present. Comparable sales increased by 0.6%, supported by growth pillars including Home Services, Pro, and appliances. Digital was another key driver, rising 15.5% as consumers continued to lean into same-day delivery and pickup. The company’s efforts to improve fulfillment, marketing, and customer experience are paying off.
Margin news was also encouraging. The company experienced margin pressure, but less than expected, leaving gross, operating, and net profit above consensus forecasts. Adjusted earnings outpaced consensus by approximately 200 bps, outpacing the top-line strength by 100 bps, and led to accelerated balance sheet improvement. Balance sheet highlights continue to reflect a high-debt position resulting from aggressive share count reduction, but improvements were logged, including increases in retained earnings and equity.
Catalysts for the share price include the company’s cash flow and its potential to reduce debt in the coming quarters. The downside is that share buybacks have been put on hold; the upside is that debt reduction will enable future, sustainable buybacks and improve shareholder leverage. Until then, the dividend remains reliable. Lowe’s is a Dividend King, has increased its payout for more than 60 years, and pays out less than 40% of its annualized earnings forecast. Dividend growth may moderate in the coming years, but increases are not expected to end anytime soon.
Analysts Set Floor for Lowe’s Stock: Aligns With Technical Support
Analyst trends have contributed to Lowe’s stock price decline in 2025 and 2026, as price targets have steadily moved lower over that period. However, the post-release activity suggests that trend may be ending. Early revisions include reaffirmed ratings and price targets that align with a bullish consensus.
MarketBeat tracks 35 analysts rating Lowe’s as a consensus Moderate Buy. Analysts have a 63% Buy-side bias and see the stock advancing 20% from the critical support target. Looking ahead, forward earnings forecasts suggest this stock can rise by 100% within the next five to 10 years.
Institutional ownership presents a risk, but that risk may be fading given the stock’s price action. Institutions own 75% of Lowe’s stock and were net sellers in early Q2. If that continues, Lowe’s will struggle to recover from its floor. The offsetting factor is the trailing 12-month balance, which is more than 2-to-1 in favor of bulls. With that in play, the likely outcome is that early Q2 sellers eventually return to buying, and institutional activity supports the late-May price action.
Late-May price action is more bullish than it first appears. The guidance update triggered a sell-off, but the floor held, an intraday rebound followed, and a doji candle formed. The doji is a sign of indecision and, in this case, marks the end of the downtrend, though not necessarily an immediate rebound.
The market is still below its moving averages, which remain the first hurdle for price action. No sustained rally is likely until those levels are crossed and confirmed as support.
Peloton Stock Gives Back Gains After Upbeat Earnings Report
By Jennifer Ryan Woods. Article Published: 5/16/2026.
Key Points
- Peloton reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter revenue, returned to profitability, and raised its free cash flow outlook as the company continues working through its long-running turnaround effort.
- Peloton’s commercial business was a strong performer during the quarter, with revenue rising 14% year over year, and could become a significant long-term growth opportunity for the company.
- Although shares initially rallied following earnings, the stock later gave back most of those gains, suggesting Wall Street may be waiting for more consistent signs that Peloton’s turnaround can drive sustainable growth.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Shares of Peloton Interactive Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) have been trying to stage a comeback after hitting a 52-week low in mid-March.
The stock has climbed more than 40% since then, as the market has seemingly begun to buy into the idea that the company’s long-running turnaround effort may finally be gaining traction.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidPeloton’s latest earnings report added to that optimism, with shares rallying after the company reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on May 7. However, the stock has since given back most of those gains, leaving some investors wondering whether it’s actually time to get back on the bike.
Peloton Delivers Encouraging Earnings
Peloton’s Q3 results for fiscal year 2026 (FY2026) offered some encouraging signs for investors. The company reported revenue of roughly $631 million, up 1% year over year and topping Wall Street expectations by nearly $13 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $126 million, up 41% from the previous year, while net debt declined 70% year over year.
The company also returned to profitability, reporting net income of $26 million. Earnings per share of 6 cents improved from a loss of 12 cents in the year-ago quarter, though results came in a penny below expectations. Gross margin rose 90 basis points year over year to 52%, but came in below the company’s guidance because of promotions on its connected fitness equipment.
Commercial Business and Spotify Partnership Offer Growth Opportunities
The commercial business unit was a strong performer during the quarter, with revenue rising 14% year over year. The company is looking to build on that momentum with the release of new commercial products, including a bike and a treadmill, expected in the second quarter.
In the company’s earnings call, Chief Executive Peter Stern addressed the opportunity in the commercial space, saying, “We see tremendous upside in this category as we estimate that we have only a 3% share of the more than $10 billion and growing global commercial fitness equipment market segment.”
Peloton also announced a partnership with Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT), which will bring more than 1,400 classes to Spotify Premium users worldwide.
Guidance Offers a Mixed Picture
Peloton updated its 2026 outlook as well, increasing the midpoint of its 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $2.42 billion to $2.44 billion and raising its free cash flow outlook to around $350 million, up $75 million from its prior minimum target.
On the flip side, the company lowered its total gross margin outlook by 50 basis points from earlier guidance to 52.5%. The adjusted EBITDA outlook remained in line with earlier guidance at $470 million to $480 million. The company said it expects ending paid connected fitness subscriptions to decline 8.6% year over year at the midpoint, to a range of 2.55 million to 2.57 million.
Wall Street Remains Cautiously Optimistic
Investors initially cheered the report, with shares rising more than 16% at one point during the session before closing up nearly 9% for the day. In the sessions that followed, however, optimism appeared to fade as shares fell in three of the next five trading days, giving back nearly 11%. Currently, shares are trading roughly where the stock closed before the earnings report.
Following the earnings release, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. increased its price target on Peloton to $8 from $7, while Weiss Ratings modestly upgraded the stock from Sell (D) to Sell (E+), suggesting some improvement in the company’s outlook even though the firm maintained a bearish stance on the stock.
The current consensus rating on the stock is a Hold, with eight Hold ratings, five Buy ratings, and one Sell rating.
On average, Wall Street still sees meaningful upside for the stock over the next 12 months. The average price target of $8.25 is roughly 55% above the current share price.
Based on price targets issued or updated over the last year, analyst targets range from $5 to $12, though most targets imply upside from current levels.
Short Interest Has Improved, But Skepticism Remains
Short interest in Peloton shares has declined over the last few months, suggesting at least some investors may be becoming less bearish on the stock.
Total shares sold short fell from around 67 million shares in mid-February to about 54.5 million shares at the end of April. The percentage of float sold short declined from 16% to 13% during that period.
Peloton is still working through several challenges, including declining subscriptions and margin pressure. However, the company’s latest earnings report suggested its turnaround efforts may be gaining traction, as growth in the commercial business, improved profitability, and stronger free cash flow guidance offered encouraging signs.
Still, the stock’s inability to hold onto its post-earnings gains suggests investors may be waiting for more consistent evidence that the turnaround can translate into sustainable long-term growth.
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