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Just For You
Analysts See 100% Upside in Flutter Stock Despite Prediction-Market PressureSubmitted by Leo Miller. Date Posted: 4/9/2026. 
Key Points
- Flutter Entertainment shares have dropped sharply in 2026, but its scale and monetization advantages in U.S. sports betting remain meaningful.
- FanDuel’s strength is less about raw betting volume and more about revenue efficiency, while Flutter’s international business reduces reliance on the United States.
- Prediction markets are a growing competitive question, but parlays are structurally harder to replicate in peer-to-peer formats and lawmakers are moving to restrict sports-style contracts.
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Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), a dominant force in online sports betting, has been one of the market's worst-performing stocks recently. Shares of the consumer discretionary company are down more than 50% year-to-date in 2026 and have fallen over 60% from their 52-week high, according to the share chart. The most notable catalyst for Flutter’s decline has been competition from prediction-market platforms, including firms like Kalshi, which has a partnership with Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD).
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With the stock down so dramatically, investors may reasonably ask whether Flutter can mount a meaningful recovery. Several factors argue it can, including FanDuel’s strengths in monetization and a structural defense against prediction-market competitors. Flutter’s FanDuel Edge: Monetization Matters as Much as VolumeFlutter has several advantages in the online gambling industry, and it helps to distinguish “who gets the most bets” from “who makes the most money per bet.” Flutter’s U.S. sportsbook is FanDuel, which has long competed near the top of the U.S. market alongside DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG). Two key metrics highlight their relative positions. On handle—the total dollars wagered—DraftKings leads with about 37% market share versus FanDuel’s roughly 32.5% (handle data via industry data). But on gross gaming revenue (GGR)—the amount a sportsbook keeps after paying winners—the relationship flips. GGR reflects product mix and promotional intensity. A sportsbook that converts more wagering into revenue is often in a stronger position than one that posts higher betting volume but lower conversion. FanDuel holds about 39.6% of GGR versus DraftKings' roughly 35.3%. In short, DraftKings leads on raw betting volume, but FanDuel generates more revenue from its handle. That indicates FanDuel loses bets less often and converts a larger share of wagers into profit. This advantage stems from factors such as a higher percentage of hard-to-win parlay bets and a generally more conservative use of promotions. Put simply, FanDuel’s users are more valuable because the platform extracts more revenue per wager. Flutter also benefits from an international footprint that DraftKings largely lacks. In 2025, about 97% of DraftKings' revenue came from the U.S., compared with roughly 43% for Flutter. Flutter’s international revenue alone is near $9.4 billion—more than 50% higher than DraftKings' total revenue of $6.05 billion. Why Parlays Are a Critical Shield Against Prediction MarketsPrediction markets have been a significant headwind for Flutter shares, but their business model differs structurally from traditional sportsbooks like Flutter. Sportsbooks favor parlays—bets that require multiple outcomes to win—because the odds stack heavily in the house’s favor. If a bettor places a four-leg NFL parlay and only three selections win, the entire wager is lost. That math scales: parlays can make up a large portion of sportsbook revenue. For example, in September 2024 parlays accounted for 72.5% of sportsbook gross revenue in New Jersey. It would be difficult for prediction markets to replicate parlays at scale. Sportsbooks set prices and take the other side of bets, allowing them to offer highly customizable wagers to any customer at any time. Prediction markets are typically peer-to-peer: a buyer and a seller must match, so liquidity constraints make customized, low-volume combinations harder to support. The platform doesn’t assume the risk in the same way, and a large number of users must take the opposite sides for many parlay-style offerings to exist. That makes parlays—one of Flutter’s most important revenue streams—relatively insulated from prediction-market competition. Regulatory pressure also favors traditional sportsbooks. A recently introduced bipartisan Senate bill would limit prediction-market contracts that resemble sports betting, and the category has faced legal and regulatory challenges in multiple states. As Flutter’s Valuation Falls, Analysts See UpsideFlutter shares have dropped enough that investors might be overreacting. FLUT now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio near 16x—roughly half its two-year average of about 30x. Wall Street analysts see meaningful upside. The MarketBeat consensus price target sits near $223, implying more than 100% upside from current levels. Price targets revised after Flutter’s latest earnings report are lower, averaging around $178, but even that would imply a potential upside of more than 65%. |
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