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This Month's Exclusive News
Tesla: Why Things Could Get Worse Before They Get BetterBy Sam Quirke. Publication Date: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Tesla shares have had a rough first quarter and remain under pressure after this week’s weak delivery data.
- Analyst opinion is sharply divided, with recent price action pointing to further downside risk in the near-term.
- However, with earnings approaching and sentiment close to rock bottom, the setup could still favor a sharp rebound if the report is strong enough.
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Shares of automotive giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are trading around $345, down roughly 30% from their December high and caught in a grinding downtrend that shows little sign of reversing. What looked like a healthy pullback in January has increasingly taken on a more persistent tone, with each rally attempt being sold into and lower lows being established. At the start of the year there was a clear narrative shift underway. Investors began valuing Tesla more as a robotics and automation company than solely as an electric vehicle (EV) maker. That reframing supported the company’s triple‑digit valuation and resilient bullish sentiment, but in recent weeks that optimism has started to fade. Weak delivery data released this week has refocused attention on the core automotive business, and a lack of meaningful results from the pivot to automation gives bulls little to cling to. With less than two weeks until its next earnings report, things could get worse for Tesla before they get better. Here’s a closer look at what’s driving the action. Weak Deliveries Bring Focus Back to the Core Business
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This week’s delivery report was another blow for Tesla investors, arriving after an already difficult first quarter. Expectations weren’t high, but the numbers were disappointing nonetheless, reinforcing concerns about slowing demand and rising competition in the EV market. When Wall Street was backing Tesla’s autonomy and AI narrative, short-term delivery fluctuations were easier to overlook. Now, with that momentum waning, investors are reanchoring their expectations to the company’s core automotive results. A Premium Valuation Means Even Less Room for ErrorEven after the recent pullback, Tesla’s valuation remains elevated. With a price‑to‑earnings ratio well above 300, the stock is priced for significant future growth, leaving little margin for disappointing updates like this week’s delivery report or continued uncertainty about the path to profitability for its autonomy and robotics initiatives. Some analysts still back the company. Just this week, Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, arguing that current weakness is an opportunity. That must be weighed against JPMorgan’s recent reiteration of a Sell rating and BNP Paribas’ similar stance last month. Price Action Suggests More Pain Could Be ComingBears argue that weakening fundamentals combined with a premium multiple are a dangerous mix. The chart’s downtrend, which saw fresh lows this week, supports that view. Technically, the stock has been forming lower highs and lower lows since December, and until that pattern changes, it’s hard to make a bullish case. At the same time, sentiment has soured: the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) is flirting with extremely oversold levels. That creates an intriguing setup for sidelined investors. On one hand, Tesla’s fundamentals and price action point to further downside risk. On the other, you could argue that much of the worst case is already priced in — and historically, those conditions have sometimes rewarded Tesla bulls as the company has a track record of defying pessimism. Earnings Will Be KeyThe company’s upcoming earnings report, due on 22 April, takes on added importance. With expectations lowered and sentiment subdued, the potential for a positive surprise exists but appears limited. Investors will watch for signs that autonomy, robotics and AI efforts are translating into tangible progress, as well as updates on margins and EV demand trends to gauge whether the core business is stabilizing. If Tesla posts modestly better‑than‑expected results and outlines a clearer path forward, the stock could attract buyers. Conversely, if the report disappoints or reinforces current concerns, the downtrend could easily extend to fresh lows. Given the company’s elevated multiple, the market may be unforgiving. |
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