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Thursday's Bonus Content
Tesla: Why Things Could Get Worse Before They Get BetterAuthored by Sam Quirke. First Published: 4/13/2026. 
Key Points
- Tesla shares have had a rough first quarter and remain under pressure after this week’s weak delivery data.
- Analyst opinion is sharply divided, with recent price action pointing to further downside risk in the near-term.
- However, with earnings approaching and sentiment close to rock bottom, the setup could still favor a sharp rebound if the report is strong enough.
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Shares of automotive giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) are trading around $345, down roughly 30% from their December highs and caught in a grinding downtrend that shows little sign of reversing. What looked like a healthy January pullback has increasingly resembled something longer-term, with each rally being sold into and lower lows being set. At the start of the year, there was a clear narrative shift underway. Investors were beginning to buy into Tesla’s positioning as a robotics and automation company rather than just an electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. That reframing helped support the company’s triple-digit valuation and resilient bullish sentiment, but in recent weeks that optimism has started to fade. Weak delivery data released this week has refocused attention on the core business. Without meaningful evidence that the pivot to automation is delivering, bulls have little to hold onto. With just under two weeks until the next earnings report, things could get worse before they get better. Here’s what’s going on. Weak Deliveries Bring Focus Back to the Core Business
In the next 3 minutes…
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This week’s delivery report was a setback for Tesla investors, arriving after an already brutal first quarter. Expectations weren’t particularly high, but the numbers disappointed, reinforcing concerns about slowing demand and rising competition in the EV market. When Wall Street was backing Tesla’s longer-term autonomy and AI narrative, short-term delivery fluctuations were easier to overlook. Now that narrative has lost momentum, and investors are once again anchoring expectations to the company’s core automotive business. A Premium Valuation Means Even Less Room for ErrorEven after the recent pullback, Tesla’s valuation remains relatively frothy. With a price-to-earnings ratio well above 300, the stock prices in significant future growth, leaving little room for disappointing updates like this week’s delivery figures or renewed doubts about the path to profitability for its autonomy and robotics plans. That said, some analysts still back the company’s upside. This week Deutsche Bank reiterated its Buy rating, calling the current weakness an opportunity rather than a warning sign. By contrast, JPMorgan reiterated its Sell rating this week, echoing BNP Paribas’s move last month. Price Action Suggests More Pain Could Be ComingBears point to the combination of weakening fundamentals and a premium valuation as a poor mix. The chart’s ongoing downtrend, which saw fresh lows this week, supports that view. Technically, the stock has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows since December, and until that trend shows signs of reversing it’s hard to be bullish. Sentiment has turned increasingly negative, with the stock’s relative strength index flirting with deeply oversold levels. That creates an interesting setup for sidelined investors. On one hand, Tesla’s fundamentals and price action point to further downside risk. On the other, you could argue the worst-case scenario is getting priced in. Historically, those moments have sometimes rewarded Tesla bulls, as the company has a track record of surprising skeptics when bearish conviction peaks. Earnings Will Be KeyThat makes the company’s upcoming earnings report, due on 22 April, particularly important. With expectations lowered and sentiment weak, the potential for an upside surprise isn’t huge. Investors will watch for signs that the company’s longer-term strategy around autonomy, robotics, and AI is translating into tangible progress. Updates on margins and EV demand trends will also be critical to assessing whether the core business is stabilizing. If Tesla posts even modestly better-than-expected results and provides a clearer path forward, the stock could find renewed demand. Conversely, if the report reinforces current concerns, the downtrend could easily extend to fresh lows. With the stock still trading at a premium multiple, the market may be unforgiving. |
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