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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com
These 3 Defense Giants Beat Q1 Estimates—So Why Did Their Stocks Still Fall?Author: Jessica Mitacek. Posted: 4/22/2026. 
Key Points
- Defense contractors saw strong earnings growth and rising demand tied to the Iran war, but stocks fell as investors focused on guidance and valuations.
- Despite post-earnings selloffs, GE Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, and RTX continue to benefit from long-term government contracts and growing defense spending, supporting steady revenue and earnings outlooks.
- Analysts still see upside in the sector, but a resolution to the conflict could weigh on sentiment, making current pullbacks a potential entry point for long-term investors.
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As the Iran conflict nears its ninth week, estimates put the cost at roughly $1 billion to $2 billion per day before the ceasefire announcement. While U.S. taxpayers shoulder much of the bill, a small group of companies has seen heightened demand for their defense equipment. This week, aerospace and defense contractors began reporting Q1 2026 results. The latest bout of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, which began on Feb. 28, has affected the revenue and profits of companies such as GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC), and RTX (NYSE: RTX).
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For investors assessing upside potential and how a quick, peaceful end to the conflict could affect these stocks, here are some clues. GE Aerospace: Double-Beat Included a 25% Increase in RevenueGE Aerospace supplies propulsion systems to commercial and defense customers. The U.S. military is a major customer and has awarded the company numerous multi-billion-dollar contracts. Recent agreements include a $5 billion contract for F110 engines in 2025, a $1.4 billion contract for CH-53K helicopter engines in January 2026, and a $14.16 million, four-year U.S. Air Force contract for fuel control systems that runs through June 2029. While those deals were on GE Aerospace’s books before the Iran war began, they contributed to Q1 revenue. When the company reported on Tuesday, April 21, it announced revenue of $11.61 billion, beating analyst estimates and marking a 24.6% year-over-year (YOY) increase. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.86, above the consensus of $1.81—GE’s 14th consecutive beat. In his earnings call comments, CEO Larry Culp opened by acknowledging the “dynamic geopolitical environment our industry is navigating,” which he said contributed to an 87% YOY increase in orders. Culp added that operating profit rose 18% YOY, EPS increased 25% YOY, free cash flow was up 14% YOY, and total engine deliveries climbed 43% YOY. Nonetheless, GE shares slid more than 5% on the day as the market reacted to management’s decision not to raise full-year guidance. Valuation concerns also weighed on the stock; its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) sits around 37x, which likely prompted some profit-taking after the Q1 results. Northrop Grumman: Top and Bottom Line Beats With B-21 Orders Nearing DeliveryNorthrop Grumman is building the B-21 Raider—a nuclear-capable, subsonic stealth strategic bomber—under a $4.5 billion production deal with the U.S. Air Force. As of April 2026, two B-21 Raiders are undergoing flight testing at Edwards Air Force Base, with additional aircraft in various production stages at Plant 42. Work on the B-21 program contributed to Q1 revenue for Northrop Grumman. On Tuesday, April 21, the company reported Q1 EPS of $6.14, beating analyst expectations of $6.03. Quarterly revenue of $9.88 billion also topped estimates, marking a 4.4% YOY increase. The earnings beat was Northrop Grumman’s 14th in the last 15 quarters. “As we are seeing in recent military operations, many of our systems are playing a critical role in successfully executing the mission,” CEO Kathy Warden said in her earnings call comments. Warden noted rising demand for the company’s offerings and that “in the last two years, [Northrop Grumman has] opened over 20 new facilities and added more than 2 million square feet of manufacturing space across the United States.” The stock, which has posted roughly a 3% year-to-date gain, sold off after the Q1 release, with shares sliding nearly 7% when management reaffirmed—rather than raised—full-year guidance. RTX: Shares Drop After a Double BeatRTX, created by the 2020 merger of Raytheon and United Technologies, impressed on Tuesday, April 21, with Q1 EPS of $1.78, above the consensus of $1.52 and up 21% YOY. Quarterly revenue of $22.08 billion was 8.7% higher YOY and topped analyst expectations of $21.38 billion. Notably, the company has beaten earnings estimates every quarter since Q4 2016. Adjusted sales came in at $22.1 billion, and management raised full-year sales and EPS guidance while maintaining free cash flow guidance. “Our backlog is a record $271 billion, up 25% year-over-year, with strong commercial and defense awards in the quarter,” CEO Chris Calio said in his earnings call comments, acknowledging the ongoing situation in Iran. “On the defense side of the business, we saw significant awards across all three segments, highlighting the strength of our product offerings. At Pratt, the military business was awarded over $3 billion for F-135 Lot 19 production,” Calio added. Still, RTX shares fell more than 4%, pushing the stock into negative territory for the year. How Much Upside Can Defense Contractors Still Deliver?Despite the market’s negative reactions, analysts remain favorable on all three companies—each carries a Moderate Buy rating. Consensus one-year price targets imply upside of more than 27% for GE, more than 22% for NOC, and more than 12% for RTX. A near-term resolution to the Iran war could temper investor sentiment, but long-term revenue streams from government contracts should persist. Analysts forecast EPS growth of more than 16% for GE Aerospace, nearly 8% for Northrop Grumman, and about 10% for RTX over the next year. For investors looking to use the post-earnings selloff as an entry point, NOC and RTX currently trade at more attractive forward P/E multiples—around 21 and 28, respectively. |
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