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More Reading from MarketBeat.com
Apple's Foldable iPhone Foray: A Real Needle Mover or Hype Train?Author: Leo Miller. First Published: 4/15/2026. 
Key Points
- After seeing record-breaking demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, Apple is gearing up to release its first foldable phone
- Analysts expect Apple to take significant foldable market share during 2026
- However, the size of the foldable market raises questions about how impactful this endeavor could be
- Special Report: Have $500? Invest in Elon’s AI Masterplan
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit it out of the park with its iPhone 17 lineup. The new family of flagship devices helped the company post its highest iPhone sales ever in Q4 2025 and record its highest total revenue. Despite market concerns about Apple's unclear artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, excitement around the iPhone 17 pushed the stock to all-time highs in December 2025. Now, the Magnificent Seven company is moving into a high-tech segment it has long been absent from: foldable phones.
According to Bloomberg Technology, the company is set to debut its first foldable phone, reportedly dubbed the “iPhone Ultra," in September 2026. (However, there are also reports that manufacturing issues could delay the device’s release.) For investors, the question is whether the iPhone Ultra can move the needle for the tech giant rather than be just a fancy new device. Here’s what the data says. Apple Projected to Reaccelerate Foldable Market Growth to 30%Foldable phones got off to a fast start during their first few years on the market. Research firm Omdia notes the first foldables arrived in 2019, and by 2021 annual shipments had skyrocketed—rising 309% year over year (YOY) to 9 million units. Growth has since tapered. IDC estimates foldable shipments will reach about 20.6 million units in 2025, or roughly 10% YOY. That implies an approximate 23% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025—well below the initial surge but notable given overall smartphone shipments declined considerably over the same period, and rose just 2% YOY in 2025, according to Omdia. Now that Apple is entering the foldable market, researchers expect growth to reaccelerate. IDC projects foldable shipments will rise by 30% in 2026 and that Apple will take a meaningful share—about 22% of shipments and 34% of sales value. IDC estimates the iPhone Ultra could have an average price near $2,400, roughly double the $1,199 base price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max (the base, lowest-storage model). Overall, analysts appear optimistic about Apple’s ability to make headway in this high-growth segment. Whether that translates into a significant impact on Apple’s share price is less certain. Low Foldable Penetration Likely Limits Near-Term ImpactsDespite enthusiasm, foldables still represent a very small portion of the overall smartphone market. Counterpoint Research reports foldables made up just 1.6% of the smartphone market in 2025. That low penetration is the biggest factor limiting the iPhone Ultra’s potential to move Apple shares in the near term. Apple could change consumer perception and drive adoption—especially in the U.S., where it held roughly 50% market share as of Q3 2025. The absence of an Apple foldable likely restrained adoption to date. Even in the largest foldable market, China, penetration remained modest: Omdia estimates foldables accounted for just 3.2% of the Chinese market in H1 2025. After six years of availability, that prompts questions about how large the market can become. Looking further ahead, IDC expects foldable growth to slow after a 30% jump in 2026, decelerating to about 9.3% by 2029. Still, that’s faster than projected growth for non-foldable smartphones, which IDC expects will not exceed 3% in any year from 2026 to 2029. IDC also sees Apple continuing to gain share, with shipment market share potentially rising to 34% by 2029. 2026: A Test Run for Apple’s Foldable AmbitionsThe data present an interesting picture: foldables may grow much faster than the broader market, but from a very small base. If consumers respond positively to the iPhone Ultra and Apple captures a sizable share, the stock could see an incremental uplift in late 2026. Longer term, impacts could be more meaningful if foldables become a sustainable, high-growth business for Apple. The company could also benefit from higher margins if iPhone Ultra prices are as elevated as IDC suggests. Sustainable is the key word—a 2023 report from Kantar found that 55% of consumers who bought foldables later switched back to conventional smartphones. Overall, foldables remain a niche market today, and the iPhone Ultra alone is not a primary reason to own Apple stock. Still, shares could see meaningful upside over a multi-year period if Apple’s foldable foray proves successful and it convinces customers to stick with the products beyond 2026. |
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