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More Reading from MarketBeat
Apple's Foldable iPhone Foray: A Real Needle Mover or Hype Train?Submitted by Leo Miller. Posted: 4/15/2026. 
Key Points
- After seeing record-breaking demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, Apple is gearing up to release its first foldable phone
- Analysts expect Apple to take significant foldable market share during 2026
- However, the size of the foldable market raises questions about how impactful this endeavor could be
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit it out of the park with its iPhone 17 lineup. The new family of flagship devices helped the firm post its highest iPhone sales ever in Q4 2025 and its highest total revenue. Despite headwinds from the market's view that Apple lacks a clear artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, iPhone 17 excitement helped push the stock to all-time highs in December 2025. Now, the Magnificent Seven company is entering a high-tech market it has long been absent from: foldable phones.
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According to Bloomberg Technology, the company is set to debut its first foldable phone, reportedly dubbed the “iPhone Ultra,” in September 2026. (However, there are also reports that manufacturing issues could delay the device’s release.) For investors, the question is whether the iPhone Ultra can be a needle mover for the tech stock rather than just a fancy new device. Here’s what the data says. Apple Projected to Reaccelerate Foldable Market Growth to 30%Foldable phones got off to a fast start during their first few years on the market. Research firm Omdia says the first foldables became available in 2019. By 2021, sales had skyrocketed: annual foldable smartphone shipments rose 309% year over year (YOY) to 9 million. The market is still growing, but growth has tapered significantly. IDC estimates that foldable phone sales will increase to around 20.6 million units in 2025, or roughly 10% YOY. That represents approximately a 23% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2021 to 2025. While clearly a major slowdown from the early years’ triple-digit gains, this is meaningful given that overall smartphone shipments declined considerably from 2021 to 2025; overall shipments rose just 2% YOY in 2025, according to Omdia. Now that Apple is entering the foldable segment, researchers expect a reacceleration in growth. IDC projects foldable shipments will rise by 30% in 2026 and that Apple will capture a substantial share of the market—about 22% of shipments and 34% of sales value. IDC estimates the iPhone Ultra could carry an average price around $2,400, roughly double the $1,199 base price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max (the base, lowest-storage version). Overall, analysts appear optimistic about Apple’s ability to make headway in this higher-growth segment of the smartphone market. Whether that translates into a meaningful impact on Apple’s share price, though, is less certain. Low Foldable Penetration Likely Limits Near-Term ImpactsDespite enthusiasm, foldables still represent a tiny slice of the overall smartphone market. Counterpoint Research notes foldables accounted for just 1.6% of the smartphone market in 2025. That low penetration is the biggest factor limiting the iPhone Ultra’s ability to move Apple’s stock in the near term. Apple could change consumer perceptions and drive higher adoption—particularly in the U.S., where it is the dominant smartphone maker with roughly 50% market share as of Q3 2025. The absence of an Apple foldable option so far has likely weighed on overall foldable adoption. Even in the largest foldable market, China, penetration remains modest: Omdia estimates foldables accounted for just 3.2% of the Chinese market in H1 2025. After six years of availability, that raises legitimate questions about how big the foldable market can ultimately become. Looking further ahead, IDC expects foldable sales to rise sharply in 2026 and then gradually decelerate to about 9.3% annual growth by 2029. That would still outpace non-foldable smartphone growth, which IDC projects will not exceed 3% in any year from 2026 to 2029. IDC also sees Apple continuing to gain share over that period, with shipment market share rising to 34% by 2029. 2026: A Test Run for Apple’s Foldable AmbitionsThe data on foldables paints an interesting picture: sales could grow much faster than the overall market, but they are starting from a very small base. If consumers respond positively to the iPhone Ultra and Apple captures significant share, Apple’s stock could see an incremental uplift in late 2026. The long-term impact could be larger if foldables become a sustainable, high-growth business for Apple. The company could also realize margin benefits if iPhone Ultra pricing is as elevated as IDC suggests. However, sustainable is the key word: a 2023 Kantar report found that 55% of consumers who bought foldables later switched back to conventional smartphones. Overall, foldables remain a niche market today, and the iPhone Ultra alone is not a primary reason to own the stock. Still, shares could see meaningful upside over a multi-year period if Apple’s foldable foray proves successful and it convinces customers to stick with the product beyond 2026. |
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