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Further Reading from MarketBeat
TPG Built a Record Year, Then Lost 40%—Is the Selloff Overdone?Written by Peter Frank. Publication Date: 4/16/2026. 
Key Points
- TPG delivered strong growth across AUM, earnings, and fundraising, highlighting durable business momentum.
- Market fears around rates, industry liquidity, and AI exposure drove a sharp stock decline despite solid fundamentals.
- The stock’s lower price and dividend yield near 6% may appeal to long-term investors.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
TPG Inc. (NASDAQ: TPG) built one of the most impressive track records in alternative asset management in 2025 — then saw its stock fall about 40% since the start of this year. The question is whether the selloff signals broader weakness in the economy and private markets or represents an unfair punishment that creates a buying opportunity. For investors confident in the future of alternatives and an AI-led economy, TPG could be a timely play. TPG’s Growth Story Remains Strong
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The company’s recent results are clear. Assets under management (AUM) grew 23% to just over $303 billion last year. The firm raised a record $51 billion in new capital, up 71% from 2024, and it deployed a record $52 billion across its platforms. Fee-related earnings surged 25% to roughly $953 million. The company’s fee margin expanded to 52% in the fourth quarter from 41% a year earlier as operations became more profitable with scale. As AUM has nearly tripled since the company went public four years ago, fee-related earnings have grown at about a 31% compound growth rate. The fourth quarter capped an extraordinary year. TPG reported adjusted earnings of $0.71 per share, well above analyst expectations. Net income attributable to the company was up nearly 500% from the prior-year period. The company’s shares hit a 52-week high at the start of the new year. Market Pressures Trigger a Sharp SelloffThen came the selloff. Like others in the alternatives industry, TPG was swept up in a challenging market environment. Geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and persistent interest-rate concerns pressured valuations. Worries about AI’s impact on software companies and private credit added another layer of anxiety and cooled sentiment. Major competitors such as Apollo (NYSE: APO) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) limited investor withdrawals from certain funds, raising industrywide liquidity concerns. That contagion affected TPG as well as peers including KKR (NYSE: KKR) and Blue Owl (NYSE: OWL). As a result, TPG shares that traded around $70 early in the year slid to the high $30s by spring, even as the underlying business continued to perform. Jon Winkelried, TPG’s CEO, sought to calm investors on the company’s first-quarter earnings call, noting that software made up only about 2% of the company’s credit AUM and about 18% of its private equity AUM. Strategic Moves Signal Continued MomentumEven as the stock fell, TPG continued to take strategic steps. In January, the firm closed a $500 million stake in Jackson Financial, effectively locking in $12 billion of fee-earning AUM over five years as part of a long-term partnership. In March, reports said OpenAI was in talks with TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM) for a roughly $10 billion agreement to distribute enterprise AI products across their portfolio companies. TPG management projected another strong year for 2026, guiding toward $50 billion in full-year fundraising. Most analysts are optimistic. With an overall Moderate Buy rating, the consensus price target is $64 per share. Twelve analysts rate the company a Buy and five rate it Hold, with targets ranging from $48 to $80 per share. Risks Remain Despite Positive OutlookInvestors should still be cautious. TPG’s earnings remain heavily dependent on deal activity, fundraising, and asset valuations. The dividend payout ratio sits well above 500% on trailing earnings — attractive, but a sign the yield may not be sustainable if realizations slow. With the lowest analyst target at $48 per share, upside from current levels could be limited if expectations adjust downward. Competition is intense. Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Apollo, and KKR manage hundreds of billions of dollars with deep institutional relationships and broader product lines. TPG is growing fast, but it’s competing for the same capital as much larger players. A Patient Investor’s OpportunityTPG isn’t a buy at any price, but the steep selloff has made it a more compelling opportunity for patient investors. The business fundamentals remain strong, and many of the current headwinds may be temporary. With the stock down sharply, TPG’s annualized dividend of $2.44 per share now implies a yield of roughly 5.5%, above most large-cap financials. For investors willing to tolerate rate uncertainty and deal-cycle volatility, the combination of a healthy dividend yield, projected 25% EPS growth, and analyst targets above current trading levels is attractive. Of course, if the macro environment deteriorates further, downside risks remain. Overall, TPG appears to be a high-quality business navigating a rough patch rather than a broken one — and it’s the sort of stock that tends to reward patience over urgency. |
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