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Dear Fellow Traveler: Another tie… The Blue Jays had their third tie in lacrosse this year. And my daughter is starting to like this sport. Two things happened… one good and one worrisome… The latter was that my daughter played goalie a second time, let up a few goals, and made a terrific save. Now, she wants the pads, the backyard goal, and me to shoot on her because she thinks it’s fun… And with that… I have resigned, and we are (for now) raising a lacrosse goalie, a trait she has inherited from her father. For a moment, lightning hit my brain, and I thought… This will be an experience... But then, right after the game, we ran into the family of a girl who is in her class. And the girl was at her brother’s game AFTER her travel lacrosse game. And with an 8 or 9 years old, I couldn’t help but think of anything that I didn’t want to do less than attend travel lacrosse games - 20 or 25 minutes away from home … on a Monday night, and two 90-minute (yes… 90-minute) practices a week… I could see how tired these parents were… I remembered that being a goalie requires little running… it requires little travel… so we can and should just remain in the local rec league and let her continue to play goalie - right where she is… Everyone maximizes their time. Plus I avoid the travel parents… The lacrosse goalie position shaped the way I think… the way I approach the world… and the way that I view markets… I hope it does the same for her in the future. Let’s get to the charts… Chart 1: Momentum Is Strong, Breadth is WeakOver at MoneyPrinterPro.com, our S&P 500 signal remains very strong, but you’ll notice a red flag. The Equal Weight figure sits at 41, while the Cap Weight is at 118.6. This is broader market momentum anchored by deep concerns about breadth.
If that cap weight starts to drop fast - that’s a sign of unsustainability at the top of the S&P 500 food chain, and would signal a higher probability of a coming reversal. The Cap weight turned positive before the Equal weight did on April 7, and the markets have been screaming higher since. The Russell reading turned positive on April 6, despite all my concerns about Iran, and the never-ending chorus of bearish sentiment. CTAs started buying… momentum was real… Access to the reading (which turned negative on January 28 before the gold/silver crash and broader market selloff) is part of the paid subscription to this Substack. Subscribe now and add it to your arsenal… Chart 2: The Cantillon Effect in Yet Another ChartWe start this week with the post-2008 world we live in. Here’s the chart that lays out the impact of the Cantillon Effect and monetary expansion in the post-GFC era.
The printer goes BRRRR…. the top 0.1% has seen a similar expansion in “wealth.” I know that a lot of us were told that the gains were because they were creating jobs and building businesses… But that was just a throwback to our 1980s standard. 
Today, monetary expansion is a core driver of the issue. And they live in the pipes. It’s only going to accelerate… Chart 3: Maybe We Should Follow the MoneyIt wasn’t long ago that people were shaking their fists at the sky after the White House announced it was taking a strategic interest in Intel Corporation (INTC). That investment was in 10% of the company, valued at a little less than $9 billion, at under $20 a share. Well, in the wake of that investment, Intel has surged and has now gotten back above its Dot-Com highs. All the clues were there… but the bias among many was strong…
It’s a reminder that public policies can be massive tailwinds. The Trump administration’s silent Chip War with China and the prioritization of Intel’s Foundry business were supportive. This is a reminder why it’s so important to watch policy… and to listen to what is happening on K Street down in Washington D.C. Recall that we made a similar call on ASML in 2024 due to the Trump administration. Shares are now up more than 70% since we gave away that report. Chart 4: The Dollar Isn’t DeadThis is a big one… turns out that the de-dollarization movement has hit a snag… Yesterday, I wrote a lengthy piece on the subject and how it relates to stablecoins, but this is quite a data point. The dollar’s use in trade has hit new highs during this war, according to data from Swift
Not just up during this war… but also up after we shut down Russia’s reserves… Chart 5: They’re Doing The Thing…Recently, I explained the importance of watching Treasury auctions… they buy back longer duration, illiquid bonds, and then shift the lending to the front of the curve…
If the Treasury Department feels like it’s an actively managed hedge fund… it’s because a hedge fund manager is running it… I went to TreasuryDirect yesterday to see what’s going on… but it seems that no one was at the door when I knocked…
So the solution was to just create a portat that we’ll add soon to Money Printer Pro…
The Treasury General Account, by the way, is starting to drop… Chart No. 6: Well… That’s Not GoodRecently, I wrote a piece about Seigniorage at the Federal Reserve. The Fed made money for years and years just creating money because there’s a big gap between the cost of printing a dollar bill and the “market value” of the bill. But for the last few years, with rising rates and other hindrances, the Fed has been LOSING money… almost like they’re trying to win a competition…
As I’ll explain in Postcards tonight, that Seigniorage will be shifting toward the stablecoin operators... That comes with risks… but it’s very significant. Chart 7: And The Second Worst Momentum Stock Is…We slapped a ranking on all 502 stocks in the S&P 500 by weighting them against six academic momentum studies, added a fragility index and a liquidity measure… and brought it all down to one number… The second worst momentum name in the S&P 500 according to our Elite Screener…
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) That’s something a week ahead of its earnings report on May 1 and shareholder meeting next Saturday… Here’s just how ugly it’s been in recent weeks.
This is drastically underperforming the S&P 500 since last May… when Warren Buffett announced his retirement… Um… it’s not like Buffett sold his Berkshire stock… right? Chart 8: Oil We Have a ProblemPresented with limited commentary… Goldman Sachs projects that oil inventories will push to record lows… We’re in the early innings here…
I highly recommend that you keep an eye on the OILU for upstream oil and gas - as there will likely be a number of momentum breakouts and breakdowns. We recently saw a push down to oversold levels and key technical levels…
The MACD sits at -1 right now… I expect to see speculators pile in if that turns positive and we have a solid move above the 20-day moving average… Chart 9: Follow the MoneyThis is from Illiquid Insights. The private markets are moving away from direct lending… and turning toward distressed-debt opportunities and infrastructure. This suggests we’re moving into the later stages of our capital cycle.
Chart 10: This Isn’t Nam, There Are RulesIf you make something small, snackable, and vaguely whimsical… eventually someone turns it into a fish. But there are rules about combining fish and the workplace.
Do not put ANYTHING with the word fish in it… in an office microwave… Finally…I’m pleased to announce today’s Chart Party will be my 2,000th post on Substack.
All I have to do in a few minutes is hit the Publish button, and this will go to 2,000…
This is just the start of a much longer, independent career. As always, it’s a pleasure to get to write about the markets for a living… They tell the story of the world… In the coming weeks, please pay attention to a few things… First, I’ll be appearing on Tuesday. at the ATOMIQ LEVEL Livestream with Chris Snook. It’ll be a two-hour deep dive into markets… and I’m not pushing anything. Second, I’ll be launching a podcast in a few weeks that combines the worlds of Postcards and Money Printer, but works with other writers in this space - some people you’ve never heard of… others you may know… And the goal is to introduce you to new ideas, new strategies, and ways to grow and protect your money. I’ll also have a few other announcements coming in May. I hope you enjoy your weekend. Stay positive, Garrett Baldwin About Me and the Money Printer Me and the Money Printer is a daily publication covering the financial markets through three critical equations. We track liquidity (money in the financial system), momentum (where money is moving in the system), and insider buying (where Smart Money at companies is moving their money). Combining these elements with a deep understanding of central banking and how the global system works has allowed us to navigate financial cycles and boost our probability of success as investors and traders. This insight is based on roughly 17 years of intensive academic work at four universities, extensive collaboration with market experts, and the joy of trial and error in research. You can take a free look at our worldview and thesis right here. Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.
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