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Source: CSO Online |
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Cybercrime is an illegal act that uses computers, networks, or the internet. It aims to steal data, money or to disrupt systems. Our digital era gives more options to criminals. This is a threat for states, businesses, and individuals. This year’s Global Cybersecurity Outlook report states worrying facts. It warns that cybercrime is expanding at a pace never seen before. It is fueled by advances in AI. But also, by geopolitics and weaknesses in supply chains. CEO’s said ransomware, cyberfraud and supply chain disruptions were their top cyber risk worries. More than two third also said geopolitics made them change their strategies. |
Indeed, cybercrime is no longer just a criminal issue. It is also a geopolitical one. It reflects power competition. It also allows some states to make a strategic use of it. |
Let’s explore this subject matter. |
Types of crimes |
Cybercrimes cover a wide range of illegal acts. It is not one single kind of crime. They can affect business activities, national and even human security. Here are some examples. |
Fake business emails. Fraudsters pretend to an executive or supplier. Then they trick someone into making a fund transfer. Few years ago, fraudsters pretended to be a Toyota business partner. They requested a legitimate looking transfer. A subsidiary lost about 37 million dollars. This method causes losses. But it also hurts the reputation. Plus, it can cause supply chain payment troubles. Speaking of supply chains, these are also targets. |
Attacks on supply chains. Hackers attack a supplier. But the real targets are the supplier’s customers. An example is the SolarWinds attack. SolarWinds supplies software to thousands of companies. It also supplies some US federal agencies. Hackers attacked a software update. This method creates espionage opportunities. Whether on government systems or companies’ R&D for example. It also leads to trust crisis in the supply chain. |
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Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS). These attacks overwhelm servers to shut down websites or services. This happened in Estonia. Government institutions, banks, and media were attacked. This attack followed a dispute with Russia. |
Ransomware attacks on critical infrastructures. Criminals encrypt an entity’s data. Then they demand payment to restore access. These attacks can paralyze crucial services. In Europe and the U.S. some attacks on hospitals delayed operations. In the U.S., this type of attack forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down operations. This led to fuel shortages. |
Other types include large-scale theft of personal and financial data. But also attacks on banks, crypto exchanges hacks, romance fraud, and many more. |
Common targets are the following sectors: |
Energy Finance Healthcare Governments IT Supply chains Telecoms Defense industry
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Who’s behind the screen? |
As there are many types of cybercrimes, there are also many types of cybercriminals. They go from individual hackers to very structured organizations. There are also some state-linked groups. Four global types can be identified. |
Individuals. These are individual hackers. They operate alone, or sometimes in very small informal groups. They usually do not have an ideology or political goal. They mostly seek money. Sometimes they look for a challenge like hacking a government. Their methods are often e-mail phishing, credit card fraud or small ransomware attacks. |
Organized crime groups. These groups are very well structured. They almost operate like companies. They have a hierarchy, recruitment services, and specializations. These include malware developers, access brokers, negotiators, money launderers, etc. They operate from areas where law enforcement has little to no reach. They are mostly driven by profit. |
State-linked/tolerated criminals. This is a grey zone where some states enter. They look away and let the groups operate as long as they do not target domestic interests. If the groups attack strategic rivals, the state turns even more a blind eye as it can benefit from the attack. On some occasion, the state’s intel services can even collaborate with the groups. These latter can provide strategic capabilities when needed. Russia, North Korea, China, and Iran are often said to be using this method. In North Korea, cybercrime funds the regime and allows to bypass sanctions. In the Ronin Network attack, over 600 million dollars were stolen in crypto. The attacked was linked to North Korea. |
Forced labor. This is not often heard of. But in part of Southeast Asia, criminal networks operate scam compounds where workers do not act willingly. Workers are trafficked, passports are taken. They are forced to run scams and are subject to violence if they fail. |
These criminals’ motivations usually fall under 3 drivers. Most of them seek money. But as we’ll see, more and more now also follow political and strategic goals. |
How are cybercrimes and geopolitics linked? |
As seen with state-linked groups, cybercrime has become a tool of hybrid conflicts. Some groups act in ways that overlap with states’ interests. It allows the latter to benefit from these acts. But without being directly responsible and liable for them. Attacks can also be used for espionage or influence purposes. |
Also, these attacks can affect crucial sectors. States view digital resilience as a key part of sovereignty. Cybersecurity is also therefore a part of national security strategies. It also is a huge concern for entities like NATO or the EU. |
These threats also push states to work together. Law enforcement responses require more and more cross-border intel sharing, extradition agreements, and joint operations. But the global response is usually weakened by geopolitical rivalries. This creates tensions with states suspected of “subcontracting” attacks to hackers. But also, with states that look away, knowing these groups operate from their country. Indeed, the recruitment of young and skilled hackers happens a lot in region with limited economic prospects. Victims, on the other hand, often live in wealthier states with high digital exposure. This leads to a global redistribution effect. Money flows illegally from developed economies to criminal networks in emerging or fragile states. This creates tensions. Governments pressure states seen as cybercrime sources to strengthen enforcement. |
As both digital dependance and threats grow, the ability of states and companies to protect their digital resources is crucial. This will be an important measure of stability and influence. Especially with AI making frauds even more convincing now. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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