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Today's Bonus Story
Analysts See 100% Upside in Flutter Stock Despite Prediction-Market PressureBy Leo Miller. Posted: 4/9/2026. 
Key Points
- Flutter Entertainment shares have dropped sharply in 2026, but its scale and monetization advantages in U.S. sports betting remain meaningful.
- FanDuel’s strength is less about raw betting volume and more about revenue efficiency, while Flutter’s international business reduces reliance on the United States.
- Prediction markets are a growing competitive question, but parlays are structurally harder to replicate in peer-to-peer formats and lawmakers are moving to restrict sports-style contracts.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), a dominant force in online sports betting, has been among the market's hardest-hit stocks in recent months. Shares of the consumer-discretionary company are down more than 50% year-to-date in 2026 and have dropped over 60% from their 52-week high. A major driver of the decline is competition from prediction-market platforms, including firms like Kalshi, which partners with Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD).
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With the share price so depressed, investors are asking whether Flutter can stage a meaningful recovery. Several factors suggest it can: Flutter’s industry strengths and a notable defense against prediction markets. Flutter’s FanDuel Edge: Monetization Matters as Much as VolumeFlutter holds several important advantages in the online gambling industry. Two metrics are especially informative: handle — the total dollars wagered — and gross gaming revenue (GGR). DraftKings leads on handle, with a 37% market share versus FanDuel’s 32.5%, but the relationship flips on GGR. GGR is the amount a sportsbook retains after paying out winnings and is influenced by product mix and promotional intensity. A sportsbook that converts more handle into revenue is often in a stronger position than one with higher betting volume but lower conversion. FanDuel holds 39.6% of GGR versus DraftKings' 35.3%. Thus, although DraftKings attracts more dollars wagered, FanDuel generates more revenue per dollar wagered — indicating it loses less often or extracts more value per bet. FanDuel’s advantage stems from several factors, including a higher share of hard-to-win parlay bets and less reliance on heavy promotions. Overall, FanDuel’s users are more valuable because the platform extracts more revenue per user. Another important difference: Flutter has a sizable international footprint that DraftKings largely lacks. In 2025, about 97% of DraftKings' revenue came from the United States, compared with just 43% of Flutter’s revenue. Flutter’s international revenue alone was roughly $9.4 billion — more than 50% higher than DraftKings' total revenue of $6.05 billion. Why Parlays Are a Critical Shield Against Prediction MarketsPrediction markets have been a headwind for Flutter shares, but they face structural limits versus traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks favor parlays — bets that require multiple events to go the bettor’s way — because the odds stack heavily in the house’s favor. For example, a four-leg parlay pays only if all four teams win; if even one fails, the bettor loses the entire stake. That math adds up: parlays can account for a large share of revenue — in September 2024 they made up 72.5% of sportsbook GGR in New Jersey. Prediction markets would struggle to offer parlays at the same scale. Sportsbooks can create highly customized parlays because users bet against the operator, which can take any side and set odds. Prediction markets are generally peer-to-peer: a buyer and seller must agree, and liquidity constraints make highly customized, low-volume combinations harder to support. The platform facilitates trades rather than taking on risk, so many counterparties are needed to support complex bets. That structural difference means Flutter’s most important revenue stream — parlays — has a significant layer of protection against prediction-market competitors. Regulatory pushback also favors sportsbooks. A recently introduced bipartisan Senate bill would limit prediction-market contracts that resemble sports betting, and the category has faced legal and regulatory challenges in multiple states. As Flutter’s Valuation Falls, Analysts Eye Big GainsFlutter shares have fallen enough that it’s reasonable to question whether the market has overreacted. FLUT now trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 16x, nearly half its ~30x average over the past two years. Wall Street analysts see significant upside potential. The MarketBeat consensus price target is near $223, implying more than 100% upside. Analyst targets updated after Flutter’s latest earnings report average about $178, which still implies roughly 65% upside. |
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