Saturday, July 2, 2022

Growing doubts about Trump and Biden in ’24

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

CASPER, WY - MAY 28: Former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally on May 28, 2022 in Casper, Wyoming. The rally is being held to support Harriet Hageman, Rep. Liz Cheney's primary challenger in Wyoming.

The Jan. 6 committee's work is sowing doubts about Donald Trump on the right. | Chet Strange/Getty Images

DRIVING THE DAY

SOME GOOD FOURTH OF JULY NEWS — N.Y. Mag: "Someone Finally Turned Nathan's Hot Dogs Into Ice Cream"

SOME BAD FOURTH OF JULY NEWS — WSJ: "The average cost of a summer cookout rose 17% from last year."

MORE DOUBTS ABOUT THE FRONTRUNNERS — It's going to take a long time to process the events of June 2022. Two monumental storylines unfurled last month that will shape politics for the foreseeable future: the Supreme Court's transformational decisions on guns, climate regulation and abortion and the Jan. 6 committee's evidence of potential criminality by DONALD TRUMP.

On Friday, we looked at how the Supreme Court's flurry of decisions pushing the country rightward is sowing doubts about Biden on the left.

For more on that, check out these two numbers in the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll:

— 64% of registered voters "think Joe Biden is showing he is too old to be President."

— 71% of registered voters say Biden should "not run for a second term."

But today we want to look closer at how the Jan. 6 committee's work is sowing doubts about Trump on the right. The same poll reports:

— 61% of registered voters say Trump should not run for president.

The reasons?

— He's erratic: 36%

— He will divide America: 33%

— He's responsible for Jan. 6: 30%

Two must-read pieces are chock-full of on-the-record quotes from Republicans who want to move on from the former president:

Via AP's Steve Peoples and Thomas Beaumont:

— "You'd be hard-pressed to find people in this area who support the idea that people aren't looking for someone else," said DAVE VAN WYK, a transportation company owner. "To presume that conservative America is 100% behind Donald Trump is simply not the case."

— "People are concerned that we could lose the election in '24 and want to make sure that we don't nominate someone who would be seriously flawed," CHRIS CHRISTIE said.

— "His approval among Republican primary voters has already been somewhat diminished," Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN said in an interview. "Trump was the least popular president in American history until Joe Biden."

— "Republican activists believed Donald Trump was the only candidate who could beat Hillary," MARC SHORT said. "Now, the dynamic is reversed. He is the only one who has lost to Joe Biden."

— "If it looks like there's a place for me next year, I've never lost a race, I'm not going to start now," NIKKI HALEY told reporters. "I'll put 1,000% in and I'll finish it. And if there's not a place for me, I will fight for this country until my last breath."

— "I just don't know if [Trump's] electable anymore," [KATHY DE KONING of Iowa] said.

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Via NYT's Michael Bender, Reid Epstein and Maggie Haberman:

— "Republicans want to win badly in 2022, and it is dawning on many of them that relitigating the 2020 election with Trump's daily conspiracy diatribes are sure losers," said DICK WADHAMS, a Republican strategist and former chairman of the Colorado Republican Party.

— "There's some evidence that some Republican voters are trying to slow-walk from Donald Trump," said SCOTT JENNINGS , a Republican strategist. Jennings said he was not surprised by Mr. Trump's eagerness to jump into the presidential race. "If you're in his shoes, you have to try to put that fire out. Because the more it burns, the more it burns."

— "Ms. Hutchinson would be the star member of a women's Republican club — a committed conservative, no reason to say anything but the truth," said Senator BILL CASSIDY of Louisiana, who voted to convict in Mr. Trump's second impeachment and has been a target of Mr. Trump's since. He was one of the few lawmakers who spoke on the record. "It gives power to a testimony that allows Americans to judge for themselves."

— "There will be a number of Republicans who many Republicans feel cannot only unite the party but would govern with strong, conservative policies," said JASON SHEPHERD, a former NEWT GINGRICH aide who is a Georgia Republican Party state committeeman.

— "There's just too many people who don't really like him," [NICOLE] WOLTER said. "We want everyone to kind of rally around him and be able to get the independents, and I just think that if he ran, he wouldn't be able to pull that off."

Wishful thinking by the usual GOP suspects? Or evidence that something has really changed?

More: NBC's Marc Caputo on how "Trump's 'fear factor' shows signs of waning as 2024 Republican hopefuls jockey."

 

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Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. If you try "hot-dog ice cream" this weekend, drop us a line and tell us about it: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

WEEKEND LISTEN: TIM MILLER and ALYSSA FARAH GRIFFIN sat down with Ryan this week to discuss their respective journeys navigating Trumpism and what CASSIDY HUTCHINSON's testimony could mean for the future of Trump's grip on the Republican Party.

"Why is MIKE PENCE letting Cassidy testify? Mike Pence knows about all this stuff better than anybody," Miller said. "And he's not going to be the president. If anybody knows how derelict Donald Trump was on that day, it's Pence." Listen to Playbook Deep Dive

BIDEN'S SATURDAY: The president has nothing on his public schedule.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' SATURDAY (all times Eastern):

— 12:10 p.m.: The vice president will depart Los Angeles en route to New Orleans.

— 5:15 p.m.: Harris will attend the 28th ESSENCE Festival of Culture, where she will participate in a fireside conversation with KEKE PALMER.

— 8 p.m.: Harris will depart New Orleans to return to Los Angeles.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

WNBA star and two-time Olympic gold medalist Brittney Griner is escorted to a courtroom for a hearing, in Khimki, just outside Moscow, Russia, Friday, July 1, 2022. Griner went on trial Friday, 4 1/2 months after her arrest on charges of possessing cannabis oil while returning to play for a Russian team.

WNBA star Brittney Griner is escorted to a courtroom for a hearing in Khimki, just outside of Moscow, Russia, on Friday, July 1. | Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

TRUMP VS. HOGAN — "Dems meddle in Trump-Hogan proxy war in Maryland," by Zach Montellaro: "DAN COX's campaign for governor of Maryland got an early endorsement from Donald Trump last fall. And now, Democrats want Republican primary voters to know all about it.

"The Democratic Governors Association launched a new ad Friday blasting Cox, a state lawmaker, for his ties to Trump, for being '100 percent pro-life' and for 'refusing to support any federal restrictions' on guns. … But the end goal of the ad is not to sink Cox. Instead, Democrats are hoping to boost him in the July 19 Republican primary for governor, which has turned into a tight battle for the nomination with former state Commerce Secretary KELLY SCHULZ — term-limited GOP Gov. LARRY HOGAN's preferred successor."

KNOWING MARKWAYNE MULLIN — "He was prepared to kill Jan. 6 rioters. Now MAGA voters may give him a Senate seat," by WaPo's Paul Kane in an analysis piece on the Oklahoma GOP representative.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

THE NOT-SO SECRET SERVICE — "Jan. 6 inquiry thrusts Secret Service back into center of controversy," by WaPo's Carol Leonnig: "The new depiction of the Secret Service — which has endured a decade of controversy from a prostitution scandal and White House security missteps during the Obama years to allegations of politicization under Trump — has cast new doubt on the independence and credibility of the legendary presidential protective agency."

"Accounts of Trump angrily demanding to go to Capitol on January 6 circulated in Secret Service over past year," by CNN's Noah Gray and Zachary Cohen

ABORTION FALLOUT 

HEADS UP — "Texas Supreme Court blocks order that resumed abortions," by AP's Paul Weber, Anthony Izaguirre and Stephen Groves: "It was not immediately clear whether Texas clinics that had resumed seeing patients this week would halt services again. A hearing is scheduled for later this month."

SOMETHING TO WATCH — "House GOP women are a crucial piece to party's next move on abortion," by WaPo's Marianna Sotomayor: "There are 32 women in the House GOP conference, the largest number in history. And their ranks are expected to grow in a midterm year."

THE DEM DONOR REACTION — "Democrats swiftly raised $80M after court overturned Roe," by AP's Brian Slodysko

IN THE STATES — "As Ohio restricts abortions, 10-year-old girl travels to Indiana for procedure," by the Indianapolis Star's Shari Rudavsky and Rachel Fradette

TRUMP CARDS

FOR YOUR RADAR — "Trump hires former 9th Circuit judge Kozinski for Twitter court fight," by Reuters' Jacqueline Thomsen and Mike Scarcella

WHERE ARE THEY NOW — "She helped get Trump elected. Now she's raising crypto for Ukraine," by WaPo's Steven Zeitchik: "BRITTANY KAISER, the provocative Cambridge Analytica veteran, has become critical to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky. Not everyone is enthusiastic."

 

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CLICKER — "The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics," edited by Matt Wuerker — 15 funnies

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

"How Do You Prepare for a School Shooting?" by NYT's C.J. Chivers, with photos and captions by Lindsay Morris and Jake Nevins: "In a gruesome new American ritual, 'mass casualty' simulations confront first responders with agonizing choices they would face in a real attack."

"The Other Cancel Culture: How a Public University Is Bowing to a Conservative Crusade," by ProPublica's Daniel Golden and Kirsten Berg: "With a rising national profile and donor base and relatively little state funding, Boise State University should be able to resist pressure by the Idaho Legislature. Instead the university, led by a liberal transplant, has repeatedly capitulated."

"Did This Trump-Loving, Leopard-Hunting Dentist Kill His Wife?" by Rolling Stone's Matt Sullivan: "Larry Rudolph built an empire in strip-mall suburbia, and a reputation as a gun-culture hero. Then came the love triangle, the allegations of fraud, and a mysterious death in Africa. Was it a tragic accident? Or murder?"

"Unsettled," by The Verge's Makena Kelly: "The Afghan refugee crisis collides with the American housing disaster."

"He was acting strangely. Then he vanished into the Virginia wilderness," by WaPo's Lizzie Johnson: "The disappearance of 18-year-old Ty Sauer set off a frantic search in a densely wooded area of Shenandoah National Park."

"Leonard Cohen's 'Hallelujah' Belongs to Everyone," by The Atlantic's Kevin Dettmar: "What is it about the once virtually unknown song that inspires so many musicians to make it their own?"

"Jason Brassard Spent His Lifetime Collecting the Rarest Video Games. Until the Heist," by Vanity Fair's Justin Heckert: "The porn trilogy for Nintendos. Atari games from the 1980s. Pristine nostalgia, potentially worth millions, gone in a night."

 

INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Pete Buttigieg educated his Twitter followers about flight cancellations.

Elon Musk broke his Twitter silence on Friday, posting a photo with Pope Francis.

Jerry Hall has filed for divorce from Rupert Murdoch.

Enda O'Dowd, an Irish Times video journalist, documented the lowlights from the Arizona GOP gubernatorial debate.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner of Echelon Insights and a CNN contributor, and Chris Anderson, software engineering manager at Sweetgreen, on Tuesday welcomed Eliana Christine Anderson. Pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook's own Setota Hailemariam Jonathan Capehart … Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and Randy Weber (R-Texas) … Eric Fanning of the Aerospace Industries Association … Brad Todd of On Message … POLITICO's Cristina Rivero … The Verge's Brooke Minters Scott McGee of Kelley Drye … Derek Gianino of Wells Fargo … Matthew Dybwad of Xandr … Jenny Beth Martin of Tea Party Patriots … Courtney Geduldig of Micron Technology … Matthew L. Schwartz … Snap's Gina Woodworth Arkadi Gerney ... Sam Nitz ... Emily StanitzReed Howard … former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu … former Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) … Luci Baines Johnson Jeremy Garlington (53) … NBC's Tom Llamas and Keith MorrisonAbbey Rogers of Rokk Solutions … Billy Constangy of Rep. Richard Hudson's (R-N.C.) office … Collin Davenport of Rep. Gerry Connolly's (D-Va.) office … TikTok's Brooke Oberwetter

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

ABC "This Week," anchored by Martha Raddatz: Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.). Panel: Alex Burns, Molly Ball, Mary Bruce and Brittany Shepherd.

FOX "Fox News Sunday": Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves … John Kirby. Panel: Marc Thiessen, Mollie Hemingway, Howard Kurtz and Juan Williams.

CBS "Face the Nation": DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas … Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Henning Tiemeier … German Chancellor Olaf Scholz … Jan Crawford … Debora Patta.

CNN "State of the Union": South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem … Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.). Panel: Bakari Sellers, Linda Chavez, Jess McIntosh and Scott Brown.

CNN "Inside Politics": Jill Dougherty. Panel: Jonathan Swan, Jackie Kucinich, Laura Barrón-López, Christopher Cadelago, Camila DeChalus and Ariane de Vogue.

NBC "Meet the Press": Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.) … HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra … Danny Cevallos. Panel: Matthew Continetti, Jeh Johnson, Marianna Sotomayor and Ali Vitali.

MSNBC "The Sunday Show": Linda Villarosa … Deborah Watts … Kurt Bardella … Judith Browne Dianis.

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