| Good morning. Nothing more to say up here other than this week will be one for the history books, and we're grateful you've chosen to spend part of your mornings with us. | | | |  | NASDAQ | 10,911.59 | + 21.61% | | | | S&P | 3,269.96 | + 1.21% | |  | DJIA | 26,501.60 | - 7.14% | | | | GOLD | 1,878.80 | + 23.61% | | | | 10-YR | 0.879% | - 104.10 bps | | | | OIL | 35.72 | - 41.64% | | | *As of market close | - 2020: In the final NBC News/WSJ poll, Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally by 10 points. The race in certain states is closer, which is why both Trump and Biden were crisscrossing battleground areas like Pennsylvania and Michigan this weekend.
| |  Wallpaper Flare | Last week, the S&P 500 fell nearly 6%, its worst week since the coronavirus rudely entered our lives in March. Investors wish they could take a long weekend in Aruba, but in 2020 there's no such thing: Tomorrow is Election Day, which will determine what party holds power in D.C. for the next few years. What does that mean for stocks? Bank of America Global Research analyzed historic S&P performance under presidents from both parties. The takeaways: - The market's average return has been higher under Democratic presidents than it's been under Republicans.
- Regardless of party, the S&P performs better in a president's first term than in the second.
- Finally, stocks have performed better when leadership changes from one political party to the other.
Now do Congress The White House is just one branch of government that's up for grabs on Tuesday. Voters will choose new members of Congress, the body tasked with checking the power of the presidency, passing laws that shape economic policy, and controlling spending. The state of those races: Democrats are expected to expand their majority in the House of Representatives, while the Senate, which is currently led by Republicans, could flip to blue. What does BofA say about historic stock market performance with different parties in charge of Capitol Hill? - Stocks have typically gained more when either party holds a simple majority in the Senate—not more than 60 of the 100 seats. It doesn't really matter the party.
But read these numbers with a kernel of NaCl. BofA reminds us that a limited dataset, wide standard deviations, and the fact that political parties change over time mean this analysis may not win the Nobel Prize in Economics. And this is all long-term perspective. In the near term, President Trump or potentially President Biden will be confronting a volatile market that's most sensitive to developments related to the pandemic. | |  Aimee Dilger/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images | Late Friday, Inspire Brands said it was taking Dunkin' private in a deal worth about $8.8 billion—$11.3 billion with debt included. The deal represents a nearly 20% premium over Dunkin's most recent closing price. What's Inspire Brands? Backed by private-equity firm Roark Capital, Inspire specializes in restaurants with menus that could be described as "chaotic": Arby's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sonic, and Jimmy John's are all in its portfolio. The Dunkquisition will nearly triple Inspire's store footprint, bringing both Dunkin' Donuts and Baskin Robbins into the fold. What Dunkin' brings to the counter: The breakfast market, which was one of the only growing sectors in the restaurant biz before Covid-19 arrived and commutes went kaput. Dunkin' struggled under that shift in Q2, but recovered somewhat in Q3. - Dunkin' has worked to keep up with consumer trends, including more Starbucks-y coffee offerings, afternoon snacks for WFH-ers, and a partnership with TikTok star Charli D'Amelio.
Bottom line: This is the second-largest acquisition of a North American restaurant chain in at least a decade, per Dealogic. | | | Retailers from New York to LA are boarding up storefronts in case of any civil unrest following the election.  David Dee Delgado/Getty Images  ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images Related: Walmart removed—and then returned—ammunition and guns from its sales floors in the U.S. And last week Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said his company needs to go "well beyond what we've done before" to ensure stability if the race can't be called on Election Night. | | SPONSORED BY POLICYGENIUS | | If you don't associate the word "insurance" with CAPS LOCK and "!!!!!!!", we don't blame you. You just clearly have never used Policygenius. If you have home and auto insurance, Policygenius could save you up to $1,055 per year compared to what you're currently paying. ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS!!!!! If that's not worthy of all-caps and exclamation points, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IS! Start by answering a few quick questions about yourself and your property. Then let the Policygenius team do the legwork to compare your existing rates against options from over 30 top insurers. If their experts find a better rate than what you're paying, you'll get switched for free. FOR FREE!!!! Home and auto customers have saved an average of 27% per year by switching with Policygenius. Check them out today to see how much you can SAVE!!!!!! | | | With polls closing for the 2020 election tomorrow night, TV networks are preparing to cope with a grab bag of prickly challenges. Challenges like... Confusing numbers. In previous elections, networks have measured vote totals based on "precincts reporting," which includes only in-person votes on Election Day. Because of pandemic-era changes in voting procedures, the yardstick this year will be the total expected vote: absentee and mail-in votes included. A mudslide of early votes. That complicates the count because different states have different policies around early votes. Some tally them as they arrive, but others don't even start until after polls close. A prolonged outcome. Political wonks agree that it's possible we won't know the outcome Tuesday night or even Wednesday. TV networks are warning there may not be a decisive result for days or even weeks—and that's not cause for panic. Bottom line: Don't tell these networks traditional TV is dead. NBC News has a plan to stay on-air for days if necessary, CBS will broadcast from the former Total Request Live studio, and Fox News tapped Fortnite creator Epic Games to make flashy graphics. | |  Giphy | What Chris Farley said. Monday: Germany enters its four-week partial lockdown; earnings (Clorox, PayPal) Tuesday: Election Day Wednesday: Oh boy Thursday: Fed announcement on interest rates; Ant Group is expected to begin trading publicly; earnings (Square, Uber, Roku, Electronic Arts, Zillow, Alibaba, General Motors, Papa John's) Friday: October jobs report | |  | This investing thing is hard. Let's talk it out. Fresh Invest is a limited podcast series created with our friends at Fidelity and hosted by our very own Alex Lieberman, CEO of Morning Brew. Each week, they'll be answering some of the biggest questions on the minds of young investors today. In our premiere episode, Alex and Sam Shore, a trading strategy desk representative for Fidelity, break down the IPO rush and what you need to look out for. Tune in right here. | | | A tradition unlike any other: Japan's mundane Halloween costumes of 2020, like "an interviewer who's a little too extra with the pens." They're hilarious. Peak sandwich: Sure, you can go through the motions with some turkey, a slice of Swiss, and two pieces of white bread. Or, you can elevate your sandwich game with these 20 recipes. Help us help you: Take our quick reader survey to help make this product better for you. We appreciate it. New tech term: Algorithm audits are surging in popularity. Learn what they are and why they matter from Emerging Tech Brew. | |  Francis Scialabba | So the news cycle at this particular point in time is a bit...much. If you wanted a little break from politics, we'd forgive you. And we'd humbly suggest an episode of our podcast, Business Casual, that only relates to politics in that it was recorded in the United States, where politics also occurs. How about… How Netflix won streaming, and what comes next. Here's CEO Reed Hastings's take, while preeminent Netflix reporter Peter Kafka's is over here. In the opposite mindset? Want to get a stronger grip around this thing called electoral politics? The Brew's podcast sommelier recommends… A two-part rundown on campaign finance. Business Casual host Kinsey Grant got an informative earful on PACs and Citizens Uniteds from the Center for Responsive Politics Executive Director Sheila Krumholz and Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Lessig. | | |  First of all, check out our snazzy new crossword graphic. #Majorleagues. Next, we've got a few announcements about the Brew Crossword: - It's moving to Saturday. Why? Because on the weekend you'll be able to spend some quality time with it, rather than on Monday when the hectic work week begins.
- You should try to make one. When you check out the submission guidelines, you'll see...it's not rocket science. Plus, it's a fantastic brain workout and we'll send you a Brew sweatshirt if we feature your puzzle.
Okay, logistics discussion over. Now, try this week's election-themed crossword written with love by the Brew's managing editor, Neal Freyman. Play it here. | | | You only need 5 more referrals to receive Morning Brew stickers. If there's one thing we know about laptops, it's that they hate being naked. Get your comp some fresh Morning Brew stickers. 
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morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=8386977e | | | ** A Note From Fidelity Morning Brew and Fidelity Investments are independent entities and are not legally affiliated. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917 | | | Written by Neal Freyman and Eliza Carter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. | ADVERTISE // CAREERS // SHOP
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