 |
Source: Qazinform |
|
The U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a nuclear deal. It allows the U.S. to develop a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia. This is not illegal under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Indeed, nuclear powers can help non-nuclear ones develop a civilian program. The goal is to produce power. But they cannot help them develop bombs. Non-nuclear states must comply to inspections and monitoring. It aims to check that their program remains peaceful. |
So why is this deal between the US and Saudi Arabia so controversial then? Let’s take a closer look. |
U.S. – Saudi relations |
This relation is based on a mix of security, energy, trade, and regional diplomacy. The U.S. sees Saudi Arabia as a key non-NATO ally. But also, as a long-term partner in the Middle East. They have deepened ties on many sectors such as: |
|
|
They both seek stability in the region. They also stand against Iran’s regime. Plus, Saudi Arabia has been bolstering Trump’s image of a dealmaker by playing a mediator role. Indeed, it played a diplomatic role in the Russia-Ukraine and Sudan’s civil war. It also helped broker a thaw in Syria. |
This position helps Saudi Arabia build its influence as a regional power. But it also ensures the kingdom keeps a careful balance in its relations. It wants to keep freedom on its domestic and foreign policies. Indeed, Saudi Arabia also has ties with other great powers which it can leverage. |
|
|
Strange Elon Crates Spotted Near the Hoover Dam |
Tesla is shipping thousands of strange white crates to critical locations across America. |
And Adam O'Dell, the analyst who recommended Palantir before it became the top performer in the S&P 500, has the scoop… |
He says they are part of a new "super startup" that has nothing to do with electric vehicles, space, social media, crypto, biotech, robots or AI… |
But it could go down as Elon's greatest ever disruption… |
Go here now for the story — and get the name and ticker of one of Adam's top picks to play it completely free. |
|
|
Terms and gains |
The deal creates the framework for civilian nuclear cooperation between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. They will cooperate on: |
Building civilian nuclear power plants Exporting US nuclear technology and expertise Opening Saudi’s nuclear market to American companies
|
For the U.S. it is a way to keep influence in the Gulf and counter Russia and China’s moves. Indeed, the latter both submitted bids to build nuclear plants in Saudi Arabia. This deal will also bring U.S. firms new contracts worth billions of dollars. |
Saudi Arabia seeks nuclear power to meet its growing electricity demand and diversify its energy mix. It supports its Vision 2030 plan. It would also allow the kingdom to export more oil. Indeed, part of the local consumption would then be replaced by nuclear power. |
But when the deal was announced, it came with criticisms and worries. |
Controversies |
Abraham Accords. Saudi Arabia has been working on this deal with the US for years now. But under Biden, the condition was that Saudi Arabia normalized its relations with Israel. Since the war in Gaza, Saudis demand a greater engagement by Israel. They will not change their mind until there is a clear path for Palestinian statehood. |
At first, it was not mentioned that Saudis had to make an effort towards Israel with this deal. This lack of conditions was very criticized. But Trump later said that Saudis must join the Abraham Accords to ensure the deal. This seems very unlikely with Israel’s current policy on Palestine. |
Uranium enrichment. The deal reportedly paves the way for a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia. At that stage, the Energy Department did not provide details on that part. But this is a very sensitive aspect. This would represent a key change in policy. The U.S. already helped states with civilian nuclear power. But they kept the enrichment part in their own hands. The U.S. exports the reactor fuel. States do not enrich uranium on their soils. Again, Trump later said on his social media that enrichment may be off the table. |
Lack of control measures. U.S. officials say the deal includes bilateral safeguards and peaceful use commitments. Plus, it ensures IAEA inspections under existing obligations. But not under the Additional Protocol. Yet, this protocol is the most intrusive and effective against covert nuclear activities. It was part of previous negotiations between the US and Saudis. But it is not part of current deal. This shows looser conditions for Saudi Arabia compared to other states. Indeed, the deal with the UAE included all necessary provisions to prevent proliferation. The UAE should not enrich uranium or reprocess spent fuel. Plus, it must accept extensive international safeguards. |
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves… for now |
The deal has just been submitted to Congress. At this stage there is still a blur on the precise terms. The conditions for Saudi Arabia, controls, and enrichment are uncertain. It seems unlikely that the U.S. will shift policy and allow looser conditions to one state compared to all the others. It could open the door to proliferation, which is not something the US wants. |
Saudi Arabia always said it did not seek to acquire nukes. But it also said that if Iran got nukes, the kingdom would follow as soon as possible. So, with an enrichment capacity on its soil and little inspections, it would have the means to do so. This would worsen instability in the Middle East. For now, Israel is the only one to possess nukes, though not officially declared. If Saudi Arabia had nukes too, it would change the balance of power. Plus, it could lead to an arms race with other states seeking to acquire them, like the UAE. More nukes also mean more risks of escalation or miscalculation. This is not in the U.S. interest at all. |
But if the U.S. and Saudi Arabia cannot reach an understanding on the conditions of the deal, others might step in. Russia and China already made a move. Let’s also not forget about Pakistan. Pakistan owns nukes and did not sign the NPT. Plus, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan extended their ties. They signed a defense deal last year. It included mutual defense with blurry terms around nuclear deterrence. |
Trump is known for his businessman’s “deal-diplomacy” approach. It is unsure if he will let billion-dollars contracts pass by in favor of competitors. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
|
|
|
|
|
Post a Comment
0Comments