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AST SpaceMobile’s Japan Catalyst Puts Its Rollout Story Back in Focus
Author: Jessica Mitacek. Publication Date: 7/3/2026.
Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile shares surged 21% on June 29 after Japan announced a roughly $912 million subsidy for a Rakuten-led satellite communications project.
- Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile plan a joint venture targeting regulatory approval for D2D operations in Japan, with initial commercial services expected in 2026.
- Despite the bullish catalyst, analysts maintain a consensus Reduce rating on ASTS.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
The roller-coaster ride continues for AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) shareholders.
After space stocks were battered in the wake of the SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) IPO in June, AST SpaceMobile rewarded patient investors with its best daily performance in two years.
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Discover the gold income fund before the next payout dateShares of the Midland, Texas-based space-based direct-to-device (D2D) cellular broadband provider surged 21% on Monday, June 29, to close out the second quarter on a strong note. It was a welcome reprieve after a month in which the market punished ASTS despite the successful launch of its low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites 8, 9, and 10.
The catalyst for this week’s big jump was Japan’s plan to grant up to 148 billion yen (approximately $912 million) to a satellite communications project led by Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY). That put AST SpaceMobile’s Rakuten partnership back into the spotlight while raising hopes for a major D2D rollout in Japan.
Japan Announces Massive Space-Based Telecom Subsidy
Motivated by concerns that critical communications infrastructure has become too dependent on foreign satellite networks such as SpaceX’s Starlink, Japan is using the Japan Low Earth Orbit Satellite Communications Project (J-LEO) to support a more resilient domestic alternative.
The program is expected to focus on satellite connectivity for remote areas, disaster response, and emergency communications, giving the Rakuten-led effort strategic value beyond a standard commercial telecom rollout.
According to the Japan Times, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications secured funding for the J-LEO in 2025, but the tender process didn’t conclude until last month. The plan calls for massive investment in the build-out of a homegrown D2D satellite network over the next three years.
Beyond the subsidy news, Rakuten announced plans for a joint venture with AST SpaceMobile that will secure full regulatory approval for D2D operations in Japan. Initial commercial services are expected to begin later in 2026, with a full rollout slated for 2027.
The move could become a boon for AST SpaceMobile. Having nearly $1 billion in sovereign-backed capital would give the company a clearer template for monetizing its technology through carrier- and government-backed international networks.
Launch Window Set for BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13
After the successful June launch of its latest three satellites, AST SpaceMobile says it intends to launch BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 from Cape Canaveral, Florida, in the first half of August. That would go a long way toward keeping the company on track to meet its goal of putting 45 LEO satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
“These next-generation satellites are expected to deliver nearly double the peak data speeds of AST SpaceMobile's initial Block 1 BlueBird satellites, which recently achieved peak download speeds of 98.9 Mbps directly to standard smartphones," according to a recent company press release.
Beyond 2026, the company is scaling toward a constellation of 45 to 60 satellites, which it will require to provide initial continuous coverage in the United States and Japan. That number will need to increase to provide continuous global coverage, with approximately 90 BlueBirds required.
Ultimately, AST SpaceMobile could have as many as 248 satellites deployed to expand its network, increase its data capacity, and support a massive global clientele. However, the company has discussed a long-term plan that could involve up to 540 dual-use satellites over the next decade.
Despite Catalysts, Wall Street Remains Tepid
Despite the news and the subsequent bullish price action, the jury is still out on AST SpaceMobile.
In Q2, the stock saw a series of less-than-inspiring ratings. On May 29, William Blair reissued a Market Perform rating on ASTS, while Wall Street Zen lowered its rating from Sell to Strong Sell on April 15.
On May 12, B. Riley Financial increased its ASTS price target from $75 to $85; however, the firm maintained a Neutral rating. Also on May 12, UBS Group lowered its price target from $85 to $80, while in a research note dated June 24, Weiss Ratings reiterated its Sell rating.
Based on the 10 analysts currently covering ASTS, the stock receives a consensus Reduce rating, with a 12-month price target implying around 4% upside from current levels. Meanwhile, current short interest stands at a worrisome 20.35% of the float, or nearly 62.5 million shares valued at $5.47 billion.
However, AST SpaceMobile has agreements with nearly 60 global mobile network providers, totaling more than 3 billion subscribers, and strategic partnerships in place with AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD), Rakuten, Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), and real estate investment trust American Tower (NYSE: AMT), among others.
Long term, the company should continue to enjoy top-line growth that translates into strong earnings for patient investors.
Lululemon’s China Backlash May Be Hiding a Bigger Valuation Story
Author: Sam Quirke. Publication Date: 6/22/2026.
Key Points
- A high-profile promotional gaffe on the Great Wall of China has piled fresh pressure on Lululemon, with the stock now trading near multi-year lows.
- Beneath the noise, however, the company continues to top earnings expectations and is trading at one of its cheapest valuations in over a decade.
- For investors with a long enough time horizon, the latest dip in sentiment may be remembered as the kind of opportunity that doesn't come around often.
- Special Report: Forget SpaceX. Buy the company Musk can't replace.
It’s not often that a yoga festival becomes a stock market story, but that’s exactly what’s happening with Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) right now. The activewear giant staged a large-scale promotional event on a section of the Great Wall of China near Beijing in late May, complete with thousands of attendees, Chinese celebrities, and what was intended to be a traditional drum performance. The problem is that the drum reportedly wasn’t Chinese at all. It was Japanese, and Chinese social media has not been kind.
The backlash on the Chinese social media platform Weibo has been substantial, with the related discussion drawing tens of millions of views, and the company was forced to issue an apology. Considering that China has been one of Lululemon’s most important growth markets over the past few years, this is the last thing the stock needed. The shares were already deep in the doghouse, and a public misstep like this only deepens the sense that everything that could be going wrong for Lululemon is.
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Watch Porter's full breakdown of Project Prophet and Emmet's systemHowever, for those who can step back and look at the bigger picture, this may be exactly the kind of moment that long-term bulls will one day view with a wry smile.
A Stock That's Been Badly Beaten Up
This latest gaffe in China didn’t cause the selloff in Lululemon, but it has added to one that’s been quietly grinding away since late 2023. Shares are down close to 50% year to date, hit a fresh low earlier this month, and are trading at roughly the same level they were eight years ago.
For a brand that was, not so long ago, one of the great growth stories in consumer retail, that’s a stunning reversal of fortune. The interesting part is that this collapse has not been driven by an underlying business that’s falling apart. Lululemon has continued to exceed analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue in recent quarterly reports, including its latest earlier this month.
The problem, instead, has been an overall deceleration in growth and consistently soft forward guidance. Each quarter has brought a slightly weaker outlook than the market wanted to hear, and that sense of slowing momentum has done the real damage. When a stock is priced like a growth name but stops growing like one, the re-rating can be brutal.
The Valuation Tells Its Own Story
But here’s where it gets interesting for those willing to look past the noise. Lululemon’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently below 10, the first time it has been at that level in more than a decade. For a profitable, cash-generative, globally recognized brand with a still-growing footprint in some of the world’s largest markets, that multiple is starting to look like a bargain.
Compared with Lululemon’s peak valuation, the current setup is almost unrecognizable. That’s not because the business has been structurally broken, but because the market has moved from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism. The truth, as is so often the case, is likely somewhere in the middle. And for patient investors, the middle is exactly where outsized opportunities tend to live.
Even the Cautious Voices Imply Upside
Arguably, the most striking point about Lululemon’s current setup is what the cautious analysts are saying. Sure, much of the recent commentary has been distinctly downbeat, with some calling the company a "rudderless ship in increasingly choppy seas," and there’s a sense that not much will change until the new CEO, Heidi O'Neill, takes the helm in September.
However, even with all of that skepticism baked in, Lululemon’s consensus rating of Reduce may not tell the full story. The recently refreshed price targets from the more cautious firms still imply upside from current levels. The likes of Daiwa Securities, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America, for example, each rate Lululemon a Hold or equivalent and set targets ranging from $120 to $140, comfortably above where the stock is currently trading at around $110. Add that to the rock-bottom valuation the stock is trading at, and you have a setup that’s hard to ignore.
A Risk-Reward That's Starting to Tilt
To be sure, this still isn’t a stock for the faint of heart. There’s a genuine possibility that things could get worse before they get better, particularly if the China headwinds intensify or if O'Neill’s arrival sparks further strategic changes that take time to settle in. The market will likely remain unforgiving until there is hard evidence that the deceleration story has finally hit a floor.
But patience here may eventually be rewarded handsomely. The China gaffe is the kind of headline that scares short-term traders out of a stock and allows long-term bulls to quietly begin building positions. While the rest of the market is busy pointing and laughing at a misplaced drum, the smarter money may be paying closer attention to what comes next.
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