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Source: Illinois State University |
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Few facts on nukes |
The first nuclear weapons were developed by the U.S. during WWII. At the time, the U.S. worked with the UK and Canada on the Manhattan Project. These weapons have been used twice in wars. This was for the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This marked the start of the nuclear age. During the Cold War, the U.S. and USSR rapidly expanded their arsenals. This led to a global arms race. More powerful and advanced weapons were developed. But also, more states acquired nukes. International agreements (like the TNP) sought to limit their spread and reduce the risk of nuclear conflict. But this did not stop some states. |
Today, nine states possess nukes: |
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Nukes doctrines rely on core principles: deterrence and mutually assured destruction (MAD). This is supposed to prevent attacks and keep a balance in the use of force. But whenever nukes are mentioned, worries emerge. The world order and geopolitical dynamics across the globe are unstable. So, nukes are gaining even more importance in states’ strategies. This reverses decades of efforts to reduce arsenals. |
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Upgrades in capacities |
Nuclear powers are upgrading and expanding their arsenals. New weapons are deployed faster than old ones are dismantled. Global arms control treaties are weakened or expired. All these elements signal the start of a new era of nuclear competition. |
The U.S. and Russia are still the dominating nuclear powers. Together, they possess about 86% of all nuclear weapons globally. Their stockpiles stayed stable last year. They also faced technical delays and rising costs in their upgrade programs. But their arsenals’ size and diversity are expected to increase in the coming years. Plus, the New START treaty that limited their capacities has expired. The U.S. and Russia did not renew it. |
China comes third after the U.S. and Russia. It is expanding its arsenal faster than any other country. It showed new systems during a military parade last year. The U.S. even wanted to include China in any new control treaty with Russia. |
The UK and France seek to boost their arsenals. But they also said they will no longer communicate on the number of warheads they possess. Recently, the UK confirmed it will pour more than 84 billion USD into its nukes over the next four years. It also reaffirmed its plans to buy U.S. jets and rejoin NATO’s Dual Capable Aircraft nuclear-sharing mission. This would be a first since the Cold War. With this move, American bombs could be based on UK’s soil and be delivered by British aircrafts if the U.S. president authorized a strike. France said it has plans to establish a new nuclear airbase in the eastern part of the state equipped with next-generation hypersonic missiles. It is also modernizing and upgrading its naval nukes capacities. |
India and Pakistan are both working on new types of systems. They are also expected to increase their arsenals in coming years. India is also more and more focusing on long-range capacities capable of reaching targets throughout China. |
North Korea continues to develop its nukes. It accelerates its production of fissile material needed to produce more warheads. It continues to test new missile systems and to show the world its growing capacities. |
Unlike North Korea, Israel is way more discreet. It has not confirmed or denied having nukes. But it is believed to be modernizing its arsenal as well. If the outcomes of ongoing talks on Iran’s nuclear programs are not positive, Israel might also further boost its capacities. |
France’s nukes to cover other European states |
Earlier this year, France said that it could extend its nuclear umbrella to cover other European states. This is a shift in its nuclear defense policy. This shift is driven by the ongoing idea in Europe that Russia could attack the eastern flank by 2030. But what does it really mean? |
France and eight other European states agreed to participate in a new advanced deterrence strategy. These states include: |
UK Germany Poland The Netherlands Belgium Greece Sweden Denmark
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The states could take part in France’s nuclear exercises and host air bases where France’s bombers could be stationed. But there are no security guarantees for these partners. The UK owns its own nukes so that’s not a major issue for them. But the others hold no power on French nukes. The president of France retains the sole decision-making power over its use of nukes and on which conditions it will do so. |
What about non-nukes states? |
States that do not possess nukes are becoming increasingly involved too. |
In Europe, the U.S. already store short-range munitions in five countries (Italy, Germany, Belgium, Turkey, and the Netherlands). But other states have signaled interest in hosting this kind of armament too. They include the UK, Poland, Finland, and Sweden. Russia does the same in Belarus. |
Finland recently passed a bill to lift the total ban on nuclear weapons. It will permit nukes to be brought, transported, supplied, or possessed in Finland. The goal is for Finland to fully benefit from NATO’s deterrence for its protection against Russia. This is another shift in Finland’s policy. The first one was when Finland dropped decades of military non-alliance to join NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. |
In Asia, debates have grown in Japan and South Korea around the acquisition of nukes. These debates are mostly the results of the threat around China and North Korea. But also, the uncertainty around U.S. commitments to its allies. Surveys in both states show that elites are not in favor of possessing nukes. Regarding citizens, Japanese are not in favor as well. But over 70% of South Koreans want they state to possess nukes. Should they ever want the bomb, both states are enough advanced technologically to acquire it rapidly. |
In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia already said that it is opposed to having nukes. But it also warned that if Iran possessed them, the kingdom would seek to acquire them too. Without a regime change and after the Israel-US strikes, it is likely that Iran will push further to acquire them. Some in the regime already argue that Iran should acquire the bomb to prevent these strikes from happening again. If Iran got the bomb, there could be a wave of proliferation in the region. |
Indeed, the ongoing instability might push some states to believe that nukes are the best guarantee of security. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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