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Source: Le Figaro |
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What is the Coalition of the Willing (CotW)? |
CotW is a group of states that support Ukraine. Unlike NATO, the coalition is not a formal alliance. Members are not required to support Ukraine during the war. It is more of a temporary partnership. Members gather during summits to discuss measures to be taken both now and when the war will end. NATO and the EU often attend these summits. |
Origins and goals |
The initiative was launched by France and the UK last year. It followed the uncertainties about future US support to Ukraine. |
CotW has many goals. The main one is to provide long-term security guarantees to Ukraine after the war. It aims to ensure Ukraine’s reconstruction and avoid another attack by Russia. Indeed, many leaders believe that without strong security guarantees, Russia will rebuild its forces and attack again. Other goals include the push for renewed peace talks and a ceasefire. Plus, members support Ukraine by supplying equipment, financial aid, and training. They also increase pressure on Russia by voting new sanctions. |
But CotW is not just about Ukraine’s sovereignty and security. It is also about Europe’s. Indeed, members believe that supporting Ukraine and joining forces is crucial to deter Russia from attacking further. With Trump pressuring Europe to take the matter of its security in its own hands, it has become essential for Europe to grow stronger. |
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Measures involved |
Reassurance force. The coalition prepares a multinational reassurance force. This force should operate on land, at sea and in the air. Its goal will be to ensure peacekeeping and help Ukraine rebuild. It could consist of between 10 to 30 thousand soldiers. But this force will not be deployed until a peace deal or durable ceasefire is signed. At the latest summit in Paris, the coalition said that exercises will be held in coming months. |
Military assistance. Members continue to provide supplies to Ukraine while preparing for the post-war period. They provide: |
Weapons |
Ammunition |
Financial aid |
Intelligence |
Training |
Some states are also increasing defense industrial cooperation with Ukraine. France said Ukraine is expected to acquire more French fighter jets, air defenses and radars. It also plans to support licensed production of bombs, munitions, and drones inside Ukraine. This aims to strengthen Ukraine’s long-term defense industry. |
Strengthened air defense. During the summit in Paris, some states agreed to build a share ballistic missile defense capability for Europe. The goal is to own an alternative system to the U.S. Patriot, which is expensive and creates dependence. There are 10 states involved in this project: |
Ukraine |
France |
UK |
Germany |
Spain |
Sweden |
The Netherlands |
Denmark |
Italy |
Norway |
Challenges and criticisms |
No peace deal in sight. The success of the coalition depends on a durable peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Without one, coalition troops cannot be deployed. For that reason, some in Ukraine say it is useless. They claim Ukraine needs allies on the ground now, not when the war ends. |
Disagreements on the level of engagement. Members do not all share the same level of commitment. Some remain cautious about sending troops. This is either due to domestic concerns or fear of escalation with Russia. Many states prefer to contribute only through logistics, training, or financial support. |
Disagreements on sanctions. During the vote for the 21st package of sanctions in the EU, Bulgaria and other states raised objections to the inclusion of several individuals. This weakens the sanctions impact. |
Members leaving. Right after the summit in Paris, Bulgaria announced it will no longer be part of the coalition. Indeed, for Bulgaria, continued financial and military assistance to Ukraine is not the appropriate way to end the war. It will just keep it going. It believes that the solution is diplomacy. |
Political changes. In recent votes, Bulgaria ended up with a Russia-friendly parliamentary majority. Plus, France and the UK are the coalition’s driving forces. They are founding members, they co-chair summits and jointly command the Multinational Force Ukraine. But both states face political changes. Keir Starmer resigned, and Andy Burnham takes the lead in the UK. Macron’s presidency is ending in less than a year. How their successors will deal with Ukraine might also shape the future of the coalition. |
Russia’s criticism. Russia sees CotW as a gathering of leaders who do not want peace. It calls it the “coalition of warmongers”. Russia often declares that it does not want to invade or engage in a war with the EU. It also says that the EU is actually the one seeking war by continuously presenting Russia as a threat and rearming for a potential conflict in the coming years. Indeed, there could be a risk of escalation. Russia said that any foreign forces engaging in this war would be legitimate targets. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
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