Insights on their complex and cooling relation.
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Source: Kyiv Post |
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Quick historical background |
The two states have a long shared history. Some parts of western Ukraine formed part of the Polish state for several centuries. Parts of eastern Poland once had large native Ukrainian populations. |
Poland was the first state to recognize Ukraine’s independence after the USSR collapsed. In the 90’s, the states signed many partnership deals. Poland agreed to help Ukraine join NATO and the EU. It has backed the latter on that matter since the beginning. It also supported the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. |
Strong ties after Russia’s invasion |
Poland has been one of Ukraine’s closest allies since the invasion. |
Logistics support. The war had not even begun that Poland was already supporting Ukraine. When Russia built up its military at the border, Poland decided to supply Ukraine with weapons, ammo, and aid. In 2022, Poland became the second largest weapons supplier to Ukraine. It sent: |
Missiles Grenade launchers Rifles Drones Tanks RPGs
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Poland was also one of the first to call for sanctions against Russia. |
Refugees. Right after the invasion, Poland set up nine reception points to receive Ukraine’s refugees. Over a million refugees fled to Poland in the first months of the war. |
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Sources of tension |
Despite their ties, the states have faced sources of tension in the past couple of years. Since 2023-24, many issues emerged in their relation. |
Grains. Ukraine was supposed to export grains through Poland. But these grains ended up being sold on Polish markets, much cheaper. Poland’s farmers argued that Ukraine’s cheaper products were lowering local prices and hurting their income. Indeed, Ukraine is not bound by EU rules and constraints. This led to protests and calls for trade restrictions. Poland put an import ban on Ukraine’s food. Poland’s PM also said that his state will not supply other weapons to Ukraine other than those agreed on before as a result. Ukraine accused Poland of making a big deal out of grain. |
Transport. Polish truck drivers blocked border crossings. They protested what they viewed as unfair competition from Ukraine’s transport companies. They asked for a total ban on Ukraine’s exports. |
Refugees. Opinion polls still show broad support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia. But within Poland there has been growing tensions around the refugees. There are more and more worries about welfare benefits and access to public services. But also, about competition in the labor market. In March, Poland’s leaders proposed new rules to reduce some of the special support measures for refugees. The proposed changes would mainly affect non-working adults. It will limit their access to social benefits, healthcare support, and accommodation assistance. Plus, a shift has been seen in the latest polls in Poland. The idea of repatriating Ukrainian men refugees capable of fighting saw a nearly 90% popular support from Poles. This shift is also due to a recent controversy that broke out between Poland and Ukraine’s leaders. |
A crisis over historical memory |
Ukraine’s leader Zelensky signed a decree to name a unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). The UPA was a WWII nationalist formation. In Ukraine, it is seen as a symbol of anti-Soviet resistance and the struggle for statehood. But Poland has a completely different vision. In Poland, UPA is known for having worked with the Nazis and being involved in the Volhynia tragedy. Thousands of Polish civilians were killed by the UPA. Poland considers it as a genocide. |
In Ukraine, Zelensky’s decision was seen as an honor to resistance against Soviet dominance. But Poland did not see it that way at all. Its president announced he would strip Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle. This is Poland’s highest honor. He also said this was a warning signal. In turn, Zelensky posted on social media the medal ready to be shipped back to Poland. Other Ukrainian officials returned their decorations in solidarity. |
This crisis broke out before the Ukraine Recovery Conference that was to be held in Poland. This is a conference to bring together partners and businesses that could help rebuild Ukraine after the war. But Zelensky, despite being a co-host, decided not to attend. |
Following this crisis, the EU calls for unity. Indeed, these tensions serve Russia’s interests. Russia’s information operations have been using this longtime dispute to trouble Poland and Ukraine’s relation. It is now increasing its maneuvers by spreading fake videos to worsen the crisis. |
But this crisis will likely not be a total rupture. It has been an ongoing dispute for decades now and it has not prevented ties to develop. Indeed, there is a strategic logic binding Poland and Ukraine. Poland is a crucial logistics and military partner. Ukraine is a crucial buffer state for Poland’s own security. But also, for the wider eastern NATO flank. |
Decoding geopolitics isn’t a job. It’s survival. |
Joy |
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