After hitting multi-year lows, Nike's earnings beat and tariff strategy sparked a 16.5% surge. Technical gaps may create new trading opportunities.
| After hitting multi-year lows, Nike's earnings beat and tariff strategy sparked a 16.5% surge. Technical gaps may create new trading opportunities. | MARKET SNAPSHOT | 🕒 Market Overview: Nike jumps after earnings beat, proving oversold conditions create explosive upside potential | 🔄 Sector Insight: Consumer discretionary names finding bottoms while defensive positioning proved costly for put buyers | 💰 Today's Trade Idea: Bear Put Spread on NKE targeting technical gap fill at lower levels | |
|
| | MARKET BREAKDOWN | Macro Lens – Big Picture Market Forces | The Federal Reserve's continued restrictive monetary policy maintains pressure on consumer discretionary companies through elevated borrowing costs. Despite this challenging environment, Nike's ability to exceed expectations while addressing tariff concerns demonstrates how operational excellence can overcome macro headwinds. The current administration's trade policies continue creating uncertainty for companies with significant overseas manufacturing exposure, making credible adaptation strategies essential for investor confidence. | Options markets reflected heightened uncertainty heading into earnings season, with implied volatility levels in the top quartile of annual ranges. This elevated volatility environment creates both risk and opportunity for traders positioning around company-specific catalysts. | Sector and Stock Watch – Identifying Key Movers | Nike's transformation from the most oversold Dow component to a breakout performer illustrates the power of severely depressed expectations. The stock had declined significantly year-to-date, reaching multi-year lows that attracted contrarian interest. Institutional positioning data showed balanced buying and selling activity—a classic setup for potential reversals. | The athletic apparel sector faces headwinds from tariff policies and consumer spending concerns, yet Nike's supply chain diversification strategy and operational efficiency improvements provide a roadmap for navigating trade tensions. This positions Nike differently from competitors who lack concrete mitigation plans. | Trading Strategy in Focus – How to Play the Market | Technical analysis suggests potential gap-fill opportunities following Nike's post-earnings surge. The stock gapped from $62.54 to $69.69, creating a technical void that price action historically tends to revisit. This presents defined-risk trading opportunities for traders expecting some retracement from current levels. | Bear put spreads offer attractive risk-reward profiles when targeting technical gap areas, providing limited downside exposure while capitalizing on potential mean reversion. The strategy works particularly well when targeting recent gap levels with sufficient time for the technical pattern to develop. |
|
| | SMART TRADE IDEA | Bear Put Spread on NKE | Trade Setup: Buy $72.50 Put / Sell $67.50 Put, August 15, 2026 expiration | | Management Plan - Example: | | | While the market welcomed NKE's earnings and plans, as well as its strategies for addressing the administration's tariffs and potential speed bumps in the U.S. economy, the gap on the daily chart could cause NKE shares to retrace and fill the technical gap. | | | NOTE: Remember, options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Consider your investment objectives, financial resources, and experience level before implementing this or any options strategy.
DISCLOSURE: Trade recommendations may have changed since publication. Evaluate current market prices and risk/reward before acting. Trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for everyone. This is not personalized investment advice. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Publisher and contributors may hold positions in recommended securities. Readers assume full responsibility for their trading decisions. Consult a financial professional before investing. |
|
| | | Andy Hecht | Second Take | Wall Street veteran and analyst covering technical and fundamental factors in markets across all asset classes for over four decades. |
|
| Nike's better-than-expected earnings and plans to address the Trump administration's tariffs led to a 16.5% jump in shares from the June 26 closing level to the June 27 high of $72.84 per share. | | The daily chart highlights the gap higher from $62.54 to $69.69 per share. | | The long-term chart shows a 70.8% decline from the November 2021 high of $179.20 to the most recent April 2025 low of $52.28 per share. While the earnings and tariff plans provided investors and traders with some degree of confidence, from a purely technical perspective, price action tends to fill gaps on charts. At $72.42 per share, the August 15, 2026, $72.50-$67.50 vertical bear put spread at $1.90 ($190 per spread) has a better than 1:1.6 risk-reward ratio. |
|
| | TRADE SMARTER WITH TRADIER | A Brokerage Built for Options Traders | Tradier offers fast execution, direct API access, and seamless platform integrations—all with a flat-rate subscription model that eliminates per-contract commissions. Trade on your terms with a brokerage designed for serious traders. | |
|
| | LATEST MARKET BREAKDOWN | Watch on Youtube |  | Trader's Workshop | The Brew Ep. 319 |
|
|
|
| | | | That's it for today!Before you go we'd love to know what you thought of today's newsletter to help us improve the experience for you. | |
|
|
|
| | All opinions expressed by Tradier HUB contributors are solely the Contributors' opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Tradier nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Hub contributors as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or to follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of their opinion. The Contributors' opinions are based on their own personal research but neither Tradier nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrants its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Any trades or positions discussed or referred to by Contributor(s) may or may NOT be actual live trades or positions. Such information is not intended to be financial or investment advice. | Securities products are offered through Tradier Brokerage Inc. Member FINRA/ SIPC - Not FDIC Insured - No Bank Guarantee - May Lose Value. Commodity interest products, including futures and forex, are offered by Tradier Futures (DBA of Lazzara Consulting Inc). Member NFA/CFTC. Tradier Futures does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Tradier Futures Risk Disclosure. | Tradier and its subsidiaries are not affiliated with and do not endorse any third-party platforms, methodologies, newsletters, or similar services which are not solely produced by Tradier. Systems response and account access times may vary due to a variety of factors, including trading volumes, market conditions, and system performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Use of these systems is at your own risk. Please visit Tradier Disclosures/Policies for a full list of policies and disclosures. | The information and content provided herein is general in nature and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended, and should not be construed, as a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Before making any investment decision, discuss the risks associated with your investment, tax, and legal professionals. |
|
| Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2025 Tradier Hub 3420 Toringdon Way, Suite 300
Charlotte, North Carolina 28277, United States of America | | Terms of Service |
|
|
|
|
|
Post a Comment
0Comments