| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | PARTING SHOTS — President JOE BIDEN will block Japanese-owned Nippon Steel from purchasing U.S. Steel, WaPo’s Jeff Stein and David Lynch report. … He will separately “permanently ban new oil and gas drilling in large sections of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, as well as other federal waters, in a way that could be difficult for the Trump administration to unwind,” per NYT’s Lisa Friedman.
|  Speaker Mike Johnson has significant cover from President-elect Donald Trump as he prepares for another term. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | THE BIG DAY IS HERE — At noon, the 119th Congress will meet for the first time. In the House, they’ll start with the pledge, a prayer and a quorum call before turning to the real business of the day: (1) electing a new speaker and (2) swearing in the new members — in that order. This used to be a fairly rote proceeding — more celebratory pomp and circumstance than political maneuvering. Those days are gone. The facts are pretty simple: House Republicans will choose the speaker. They will do so with the second smallest majority in American history and despite unanimous Democratic support for HAKEEM JEFFRIES. Barring any absences or votes of “present,” Speaker MIKE JOHNSON can only afford to have one Republican vote against him. (Speakers need to win a majority of the ballots cast; a simple plurality will not do.) At this moment, Johnson is the only person who has a logical chance of becoming speaker. And it’s unclear if he has the votes. Johnson’s allies are cautiously optimistic. In calls and texts last night and this morning, several of them repeated Johnson’s prediction that he will win the gavel in “the first round” of voting. But even if he doesn’t win it immediately, they’re confident Johnson will prevail. Why? Four words: President-elect DONALD TRUMP. The president-elect has already endorsed Johnson, and we’re told he’s ready to defend his endorsement. Trump is prepared to make calls to get any stragglers in line if Johnson doesn’t win on the first ballot, our Rachael Bade has learned — provided that it’s not an especially large number of House Republicans voting against Johnson. “Trump has a lot of capital on the line, so he’s gonna have to lean in for Johnson,” one Republican told Rachael. “The president correctly feels like [the] hurdles to Mike becoming the speaker are not as high as the saber-rattlers would have you think,” a Trump world insider told Rachael. “It is clear that he’s got a little bit of work to do now within his caucus to make everyone feel confident in his leadership. But fundamentally, he's pretty close. … I think the plane can be landed.” To any conservative holdouts, Johnson’s pitch is twofold and Trump-centric: Vote for me so we can (1) immediately get to work on Trump’s agenda and (2) there’s not a chaotic start to this new unified GOP control of Washington. And it’s probably the most effective argument in his arsenal. There doesn’t seem to be anything akin to 2023, when KEVIN McCARTHY endured 15 rounds of ballots over four days. For starters, the opposition to Johnson is less widespread and there are fewer blocs upset with him. Then there’s the Trump factor: In 2023, he endorsed McCarthy only after the Californian had lost the first three rounds. Between Trump’s early endorsement of Johnson and the fact that he will return to the White House in 17 days, the once and future president has real skin in the game this time. But that’s not to say there aren’t troublemakers in Johnson’s midst. Who we’re keeping our eyes on … In short, the entire House Freedom Caucus. Johnson already lost the vote of Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.), who last night told OAN host MATT GAETZ (yes, that is a sentence that now exists): “You can pull all my fingernails out, you can shove bamboo up in them. You can start cutting off my fingers, I am not voting for Mike Johnson tomorrow.” That’s one Republican vote against Johnson. If there is a second, who might it be? Two names loom largest in that conversation: Reps. CHIP ROY (R-Texas) and VICTORIA SPARTZ (R-Ind.). But neither has said anything as Shermanesque as Massie’s declaration; they’re open to supporting Johnson, but looking for some assurances first. The really good news for Johnson is that no one is jumping in to go up against him, or seeing their name floated as a serious compromise candidate — at least not yet. OK, but: What if Johnson loses? Who steps up then? There are three members who would seemingly have the best shot at becoming speaker: Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE, Majority Whip TOM EMMER and Rep. JIM JORDAN, as Olivia Beavers detailed for Inside Congress. But all three have their own GOP holdouts and vote counts that seem harder to overcome than Johnson’s. One thing to watch: “Some GOP lawmakers are worried that a drawn-out speakership fight will force Johnson to cave and agree to hawkish fiscal policies that would make it harder for the GOP to pass priorities on the border, energy and taxes,” Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers write this morning. If this isn’t over by Monday … One reason Republicans are so keen to avoid a repeat of the 2023 speakership standoff is that a new speaker must be elected before the House can take up official business — and one of its first pieces of official business (certifying Trump’s 2024 victory) is scheduled for a joint session on Monday. There is no appetite for delaying that further; you can expect Congress to stick around through the weekend if need be. If, on the other hand, Republicans can’t get their act together — and if Trump gets angry about that and lashes out at those he deems responsible — gird your loins. The House curtain-raisers: WSJ … NYT … WaPo … USA Today And in the Senate: “John Thune Takes Charge in the Senate, Ushering in a New Leadership Era,” by NYT’s Carl Hulse Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop me a line: edaniels@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to make housing more available.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy. Addressing housing availability through tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unlock supply, and solve a national crisis. | | | TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest: “‘Dark Money’ Is Tainting Washington Think Tanks. A New Report Shows It’s Worse Than You Think.” TRANSITION LENSES — In Trump’s second go-around, the transition effort is proceeding much differently than his first term in the Oval Office, former and current officials tell NOTUS’ Jasmine Wright, with one admin alum describing it as “night and day.” The main reason for the shift? Incoming chief of staff SUSIE WILES. “Some Republicans describe a corporate-style pyramid structure with Wiles at the top instead of the horizontal organization that existed in 2016. Wiles’ former Florida aides — like incoming deputies TAYLOR BUDOWICH and JAMES BLAIR — along with longtime Trump aides STEPHEN MILLER and DAN SCAVINO, will have a sizable power they can wield in her name. One former official jokingly likened them to her ‘Four Horsemen.’” (We bet that nickname will stick.) “It will be a more ‘senior hierarchy,’ they said, comparing it to 2016, where all ranks had relatively easy access to the president and could walk into the Oval Office mostly unrestricted — sparking jokes among officials that any badge could get you access to POTUS. Those who are involved or aware of transition movements say the staffing work is happening at a more glacial pace than last time around, with more deliberate and cautious searching for agency staff and undersecretaries.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   The pathway to more housing availability runs through the tax code. See our blueprint to unlock supply. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief. Biden will host a Medal of Valor ceremony at 12:20 p.m. and deliver remarks at a Medal of Honor ceremony at 5 p.m. (More on the MOH recipients, via ABC’s Luis Martinez and Stacey Dec). Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:15 p.m.
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|  An investigator photographs a Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside the lobby of the Trump Hotel in Las Vegas on Jan. 1. | Wade Vandervort/AFP via Getty Images | 1. CYBERTRUCK EXPLOSION LATEST: Tesla chief ELON MUSK is “directly assisting investigators in the New Year’s Day Cybertruck explosion outside of the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, highlighting both the trove of information the company has on its customers and Musk’s ability to access and share it at his own discretion,” WaPo’s Trisha Thadani and Shannon Najmabadi report. “Musk sent a team to Las Vegas to help investigators extract data and video from the charred remains of the car on Thursday and provided footage from Tesla’s charging stations that tracked the suspect as he drove from Colorado to Las Vegas, officials said.” The driver: Authorities investigating the incident said yesterday that MATTHEW LIVELSBERGER, the 37-year-old Green Beret who allegedly perpetrated the explosion, “shot himself in the head just before detonation” and “likely planned a more damaging attack but the steel-sided vehicle absorbed much of the force from the crudely built explosive,” per the AP’s Tara Copp, Alanna Durkin Richer, Colleen Long and Ty O’Neil. Officials are still working to determine a motive. Related reads: “From Bronze Star to Baffling End: Green Beret Named in Vegas Tesla Explosion Stuns Army,” by WSJ’s Joshua Chaffin and Sadie Gurman … “How Elon Musk Made the Las Vegas Bombing About His ‘Badass Truck,’” by WSJ’s Tim Higgins … “Musk warns of lawsuits over media coverage of Tesla Cybertruck explosion,” by Katherine Long 2. NEW ORLEANS LATEST: “Could Better Security Have Stopped the New Orleans Terror Attack?” by NYT’s Adam Nossiter, Mattathias Schwartz, Julie Bosman, Maria Cramer and Jack Healy: “Five years before a man in a pickup mowed down dozens of New Year’s revelers in New Orleans, a confidential security report warned that the iconic Bourbon Street tourist strip was vulnerable to a ‘vehicular ramming’ attack. The assessment, prepared by a security firm in November 2019 for the group that manages the city’s French Quarter, warned that the bollards designed to block vehicles from entering Bourbon Street did ‘not appear to work.’ “The New York security firm recommended fixing the barriers immediately, and said that ‘the two modes of terror attack likely to be used are vehicular ramming and active shooting.’ The attack early Wednesday, which killed 14 people and injured dozens more, has now forced officials in New Orleans to confront whether they did enough to protect one of the country’s most famed tourist spots against an attack foreseen years earlier.” Related reads: “What we know about the victims in the Bourbon Street attack,” by WaPo … “Recordings by New Orleans attack suspect express extreme religious views,” by The Guardian’s Ramon Antonio Vargas 3. MOVE FAST AND BREAK THINGS: In a major shift heralding the return of Trump and a GOP trifecta, MARK ZUCKERBERG’s Meta is “revamping its global policy team, with President NICK CLEGG stepping down and being replaced by JOEL KAPLAN, his deputy and the company’s most prominent Republican,” Semafor’s Liz Hoffman, Reed Albergotti and Gina Chon scoop. “Kaplan, who was White House Deputy Chief of Staff under GEORGE W. BUSH, has been one of the most forceful voices inside Meta against restrictions on political speech, arguing internally that such policies would disproportionately mute conservative voices.” More names to know: “Meta’s political operation is now well placed for a Republican-dominated Washington: It’s just-elevated vice president of global public policy, KEVIN MARTIN, was appointed to the Federal Communications Commission by President George W. Bush, and its general counsel, JENNIFER NEWSTEAD, was the top legal adviser to the Trump State Department from 2017 until joining Meta in 2019.” 4. NOTHING BUT NET: “Net Neutrality Rules Struck Down by Appeals Court,” by NYT’s Cecilia Kang: “The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, in Cincinnati, said the F.C.C. lacked the authority to reinstate rules that prevented broadband providers from slowing or blocking access to internet content. In its opinion, a three-judge panel pointed to a Supreme Court decision in June, known as Loper Bright, that overturned a 1984 legal precedent that gave deference to government agencies on regulations. … The court’s decision put an end to the Biden administration’s hallmark tech policy, which had drawn impassioned support from consumer groups and tech giants like Google and fierce protests from telecommunications giants like Comcast and AT&T.”
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®:   Tax reform is the key to more housing supply. See our plan. | | | 5. FOR YOUR RADAR: “FBI releases new video of a suspect planting a pipe bomb near DNC offices on eve of the Capitol riot,” by AP’s Michael Kunzelman: “Hoping to generate new tips from the public, the FBI is releasing more information about its pipe bomb investigation, including an estimate that the unidentified suspect is about 5 feet 7 inches tall. The bureau also is posting previously unreleased video of the suspect placing one of the bombs. A host of basic questions remains unanswered four years later. For starters, investigators haven’t determined if the suspect is a man or a woman. Nor have they established a clear link between the pipe bombs and the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol by a mob of Donald Trump’s supporters.” 6. HOT ON THE RIGHT: With SARAH McBRIDE set to make history as the first openly transgender federal lawmaker in the nation’s history, trans rights are likely to become a focal point under Republicans’ rule in Washington. “Believing voters in the 2024 elections rejected Democrats’ more inclusive positions on transgender rights, Republicans appear ready in 2025 to double down in support of executive orders and provisions in spending bills that would make it harder for transgender individuals to get health care, serve in the military or participate in school activities,” Anthony Adragna reports. “The push on transgender rights is poised to be one of the marquee health policy and culture war battles that the House GOP takes on next year, with Republican lawmakers showing no sign of softening. Though some Democrats are questioning the party’s stance when it comes to transgender women participating in competitive sports, many are gearing up to fight back.” 7. DATA DEEP DIVE: “Economy in Counties Trump Won Points to Governing Challenges,” by Bloomberg’s Shawn Donnan, Nazmul Ahasan and Alexandre Tanzi: “Trump’s November election victory has often been explained as a reflection of anger about post-pandemic price increases for everything from groceries to housing. But inflation was only part of the economic story. Trump won in the places that have seen the slowest growth since the pandemic, according to county-level GDP data released in December by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The figures, which capture output for 2023, also point to some of the challenges that the president-elect will face as his administration takes over management of the economy and sets about rewriting government regulations, tariffs and tax policy.” 8. ZELENSKYY’S CHARM OFFENSIVE: “Trump’s strength and unpredictability can help end the war with Russia, Ukraine’s president says,” by AP’s Illia Novikov: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY “said it won’t be possible to end the almost three years of war in one day, as Trump claimed during his election campaign he could do. ‘The “hot” stage of the war can end quite quickly, if Trump is strong in his position,’ Zelensky said in a Ukrainian television interview late Thursday, referring to fighting on the battlefield. ‘I believe (Trump) is strong and unpredictable. I would very much like President Trump’s unpredictability to be directed primarily toward the Russian Federation,’ Zelenskyy said.” 9. JUST IN TIME FOR DRY JANUARY: “Surgeon General Calls for Cancer Warnings on Alcohol,” by NYT’s Roni Caryn Rabin: “It is the latest salvo in a fierce debate about the risks and benefits of moderate drinking as the influential U.S. Dietary Guidelines for Americans are about to be updated. For decades, moderate drinking was said to help prevent heart attacks and strokes. That perception has been embedded in the dietary advice given to Americans. But growing research has linked drinking, sometimes even within the recommended limits, to various types of cancer.” SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.) … Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Panel: Mary Katharine Ham, Marie Harf, Doug Heye and Mario Parker. NBC “Meet the Press”: Senate Majority Leader John Thune … Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer … Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.). Panel: Carol Lee, Jonathan Martin, Symone Sanders-Townsend and Marc Short. CBS “Face the Nation”: Tom Homan … Senate Majority Leader John Thune … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) … Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). CNN “State of the Union”: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D- Minn.) … Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). Panel: Reps. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) and Adam Gray (D-Calif.) . ABC “This Week”: Panel: Donna Brazile, Julie Pace, Astead Herndon, and Reihan Salam. MSNBC “Alex Witt Reports”: Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) ... Meghan Hays … Hugo Lowell … Omarosa Manigault Newman. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday,” with guest host Blake Burman: Molly Ball, Michael Warren, Jasmine Wright and Mychael Schnell.
| | | | POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Patrick Soon-Shiong is thinking about a conservative answer to “The View” with Cheryl Hines and Rob Schneider, Oliver Darcy reports. Josh Green is coming to DC to lobby against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s confirmation. Tim Scott became the longest-serving Black senator in American history today. Donald Trump will hold a big pre-inauguration rally at Capital One Arena on Jan. 19. Jill Biden received a $20,000 diamond from Narendra Modi — the most expensive gift the first family was given by a foreign leader in 2023. Rudy Giuliani’s legal woes are about to ramp up. BIG FOX TO THE HENHOUSE MOVE — Trump has selected Ken Kies to serve as assistant secretary for tax policy, per WSJ’s Richard Rubin. Kies, a “former JCT chief and veteran Republican tax lobbyist” will “have lots of input into designing this year’s tax bill and figuring out which Biden-era tax rules to keep or change.” MEDIA MOVES — Olivia Beavers, Meridith McGraw and Gavin Bade are joining the WSJ’s Washington bureau. Olivia will be joining the Congress team and currently is a Congress reporter at POLITICO. Meridith will be joining the White House team and currently is a national political correspondent at POLITICO. Gavin will be covering trade and currently is a trade and economics reporter at POLITICO. TRANSITIONS — Sam Somogye is now comms director for Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.). He previously was press secretary for Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) reelection campaign. … Tony Wen is now comms director for Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.). He most recently was on the Harris campaign’s Wisconsin comms team, and is a Henry Cuellar alum. … Jalelah Sofia Ahmed is now deputy comms director for Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) on the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. She previously was a speechwriter at the Ex-Im Bank and is a Donald Payne, Lucille Roybal-Allard and Sheila Jackson Lee alum. … … Calli Cooper is now comms director for Republican Study Committee, under Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas). She previously was at FlexPoint Media and is a Ron DeSantis alum. … Matt VanHyfte is now comms director for the House Energy and Commerce Committee under Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.). He most recently was comms director for the House Small Business Committee. … Ashley Jones will be chief of staff for Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.). She previously was deputy assistant to President Joe Biden and deputy director of the Office of Legislative Affairs and is a Ben Ray Luján alum. Jones takes over from current chief of staff Tracie Pough, who is leaving at the end of January after a 20-year career in Congress. WEDDING — Casey Nelson, comms director for House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), and Bryan Hood, director at Flexpoint Media, got married on Monday in an intimate San Francisco City Hall ceremony. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kaelan Dorr, a MAGA Inc., Trump White House and Treasury alum, and Carly Dorr welcomed Darling Dorr on Dec. 27. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Marc Veasey (D-Texas) and Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) … Brad Parscale … NYT’s David Fahrenthold and Marc Tracy … Greta Thunberg … Verizon’s Chris DeBosier … Tim Rieser … Igor Volsky of Volsky Ventures … Marcie Ridgway Kinzel ... David Margolick … Kaiser Health News’ Noam Levey ... Jenna Golden … Sarah Lenti … McKinsey’s Jonathan Spaner … L.D. Platt … Zach Gates of Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Mo.) office … National Education Association’s Conor Hurley … Carolyn Fiddler … “Chef” Geoff Tracy … James Hunter … POLITICO’s Matt Woelfel, Laura Kayali and Marc Heller … Al Cárdenas … former Treasury Secretary W. Michael Blumenthal … Richard Ben-Veniste … Nolan Brown of Rep. Greg Landsman’s (D-Ohio) office Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: The National Association of REALTORS® is leading the charge to update America’s tax law to promote homeownership and boost economic growth.
The U.S. still lacks 4.7 million homes, and middle-income buyers are feeling the inventory shortage the most. More than 375,000 listings in the $250,000 and under price range are missing from the market.
We’ve worked with Congress to endorse a package of bills with broad support that would unlock housing inventory.
Legislation like the More Homes on the Market Act would incentivize long-term homeowners to sell by increasing the amount of capital gains they can exclude from the sale of a principal residence.
Real estate makes up nearly one-fifth of the U.S. economy, and each home sale generates $125,000 in local economic activity and two jobs.
Addressing housing availability in tax reform is a smart way to create economic growth, unleash housing inventory, and solve a national crisis. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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