| | | | |  | | By Nahal Toosi, Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends a joint press conference with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot after their meeting at the Quai d'Orsay in Paris on Jan. 8, 2025. | Pool photo by Ludovic Marin | With help from Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric For many months, reporters have asked the State Department what its assessment is on whether Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza. The department has responded with some version of “we’re checking into it.” Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN muddied things further when he recently told The New York Times: “We, as you know, have looked and continue to look at that in depth, and we’ve put out our own reports on this with our own assessments.” Except the Biden administration has never released a clear, meaningful conclusion about Israeli actions, a reality that has infuriated everyone from senators to aid workers. “We have seen the administration take virtually no action — and come to no conclusions — in response to the [Israeli] government’s conduct and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza,” said Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) “They seem to keep kicking the can down the road, saying, ‘Yeah, we’re still looking into it, we’re still looking into it, we’re still looking into it,’ and that lets them off the hook from ever having to reach a conclusion,” said BRIAN FINUCANE, a former State Department lawyer now with the International Crisis Group. There are two key areas U.S. officials examine when evaluating the battlefield conduct of a country that receives U.S. military support. One covers humanitarian aid; the other involves the use of U.S.-origin weapons. Israel has been accused numerous times of barring aid to Palestinians in Gaza and unlawfully attacking civilians. It usually denies wrongdoing. In May, under pressure from lawmakers, State released a report expressing concern about Israeli actions on both fronts. (The report’s conclusions mattered because if the U.S. determined that Israel violated the rules of war, it may have had to limit its delivery of weapons.) The report said it was “reasonable to assess” that Israel may have used U.S. weapons in ways “inconsistent” with international humanitarian law. But the department stopped short of saying that was its conclusion. The report also states, as part of a paragraph in the Israel section, “We do not currently assess that the Israeli government is prohibiting or otherwise restricting the transport or delivery of U.S. humanitarian assistance.” Many interpreted this to mean Israel wasn’t violating laws on aid, at least not in whatever period “currently” covered. But the language is squishy. It doesn’t directly say Israel is following the rules of war. It doesn’t directly say Israel is violating the rules. In any case, it’s now eight months later than “currently,” so the statement is irrelevant. One problem is that journalists and others rely on the word “assessment,” possibly because that’s the term most often used in the legal memo that led to the May report. But the department seems to take advantage of that word’s flexible meaning in its public comments — using it when it could use “monitoring,” for instance — adding to the confusion. News outlets have chronicled how U.S. diplomats have reviewed hundreds of incidents of civilian harm potentially involving U.S. weapons in Gaza, but the administration has not taken any action in response to the cases. Blinken has also reportedly ignored the findings of some of the experts reporting to him. We asked the State Department for the latest, if unofficial, internal assessment on any single case in Gaza and got nothing. We asked whether there’s a formula or an algorithm the department uses to reach broader conclusions about Israel’s overall pattern. Nothing. Department spokespersons’ excuses for producing no clear answers boil down to: The conflict isn’t over, so the department can’t reach a conclusion on everything it’s monitoring; and individual cases are complicated, so the department can’t really say anything about those. It’s about logistics, not politics, spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said. But it can be difficult to accept these arguments after so much time and so many incidents, even if the situation involves an ally whose treatment is highly sensitive. “The confusion is the point,” said one Democratic congressional aide, who was granted anonymity to speak on the matter candidly. “They just seem to be trying to run out the clock and leave office without actually making conclusions on what Israel has done.”
| | BIDEN SCRAPS FINAL EUROPE VISIT: Wildfires in Los Angeles have scuttled Biden’s swan song international trip to Rome, our own ELI STOKOLS reports, leaving a few leaders with more free time on their hands after their meetings with Biden were canceled. Biden was slated to meet Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in Rome on Friday for a symbolic face-to-face as Ukraine looks toward an uncertain future ahead of the incoming Trump administration. The Ukrainian leader isn’t the only one with a bit more free time on their hands. Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI, who visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago last week, and POPE FRANCIS were also slated to meet with Biden during his Italian jaunt. THE COST OF NOT HELPING: Plenty of ink has been spilled over how much aid the United States has sent to Ukraine since the Russian invasion. But what would it cost to not help Ukraine? It’s difficult to crunch numbers on hypotheticals, but national security wonks at the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute have done just that. According to the new study, “a world in which Russia prevails would be more dangerous and more expensive for America — requiring an estimated increase of $808 billion in defense spending over five years,” as AEI scholars ELAINE McCUSKER, FREDERICK W. KAGAN and RICHARD SIMS conclude. MADURO NABS MACHADO: The Venezuelan opposition is alleging that government agents “violently intercepted” and detained opposition leader MARIA CORINA MACHADO ahead of tomorrow’s Venezuelan presidential inauguration. Hours after her convoy was attacked, Machado's team shared on social media that she was released from regime custody. But the detention in broad daylight follows the opposition’s vow to take to the streets if President NICOLÁS MADURO attempts to take office following an election international observers have rejected as rigged in favor of the government. As Reuters reports, nationwide protests are expected today and tomorrow in major Venezuelan cities and the Venezuelan government has pledged to respond forcefully to any showings of dissent. Security forces have extensively deployed in the country’s capital city Caracas. Ahead of the expected unrest in Caracas, a bipartisan group of senators reintroduced legislation outlining a pathway for a democratic transition in Venezuela and policy mechanisms the U.S. should pursue in support of that goal. In a statement, the National Security Council said it was "tracking" the arrest "very closely" and added: "We condemn such arrests, repression and intimidation, which cannot obscure the fact that EDMUNDO GONZALEZ URRUTIA is the true winner of the July 28 elections." It’s unclear if Latin American heads of state and top officials will still attend the inauguration. But allies of President-elect DONALD TRUMP are signaling that their presence in Caracas tomorrow would be perceived negatively, especially following Machado’s detention. “Any dipshit leader who goes to Maduro’s inauguration should be considered officially an enemy to democracy,” a former Trump official said in reaction to Machado’s detention. The former official was granted anonymity to discuss their views candidly. LEBANON DEADLOCK BREAKS: Lebanon elected a new president today, breaking a years-long political stalemate in Beirut over who will helm the country. Lebanon’s parliament elected its army chief, JOSEPH AOUN, as the country’s new head of state in a development that’s seen as a sign of Iran-backed group Hezbollah’s diminished influence in the country. "Today, a new phase in the history of Lebanon begins," he said in a speech before parliament, to applause from many lawmakers — except those who belong to Hezbollah. Washington had hoped that Israeli military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon last year would defang the militant group, which has long wielded considerable influence over the Middle Eastern country’s politics, and help stabilize its fractious politics. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily on Eric’s first day back! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130.
| | GREENLAND CLAPBACK: A senior Greenlandic politician has a message for President-elect DONALD TRUMP: get your own Arctic house in order before trying to take over the Arctic island. As our own SEB STARCEVIC, Eric and JACK DETSCH report, PIPALUK LYNGE, an MP from Greenland’s largest party and chair of the parliamentary foreign and security policy committee, slammed a visit from Trump’s son, DONALD TRUMP JR., as staged. He also argued the U.S. should consider how it treats indigenous people in the Arctic. “We know how they treat the Inuit in Alaska,” Lynge said. “Make that great before trying to invade us.” It’s a reference to the continued plight of Alaska Native communities, who despite enjoying some special land rights under federal law and burgeoning political influence in Alaska, face a wide range of economic, educational and health disparities. Lynge is just the latest Danish and Greenlandic figure to condemn Trump’s lately insistent vows to annex the Arctic nation, which is still administered by fellow NATO member Denmark.
| | DC SQUADRON DRAMA: All politics are local — even the politics around national security. That’s the main takeaway from new grousing over a move to transfer a squadron of F-16s from the D.C. National Guard to the Maryland National Guard. As our own JOE GOULD, DANIEL LIPPMAN and CONNOR O’BRIEN wrote, the move was part of a legislative bargain that would allow D.C. to redevelop land for a new stadium for the Washington Commanders, green-lighting them to move back into the District from Northwest Stadium in suburban Maryland. But some military leaders aren’t thrilled, and argue that redeploying the planes puts the nation’s capital at risk. D.C. National Guard interim commander Maj. Gen. JOHN ANDONIE said it bypassed the normal decision-making process and would “unnecessarily” bifurcate control. “This relationship adds complexity and may result in an accumulation of risk,” he said in a letter to Air Force Secretary FRANK KENDALL. RAMSTEIN RALLYING CRY: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN used the bully pulpit of the chairmanship of his last meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany on Thursday to lay down some trolling of Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN, our own PAUL McLEARY writes in. In his speech wrapping up the 25th meeting of the group, Austin highlighted the massive Russian losses in the war in Ukraine and the effect they have had on Putin’s wider global ambitions. “All he could do was watch,” as longtime ally Bashar al-Assad’s army collapsed and he fled to Moscow late last year, Austin said, because ”Putin was so bogged down in Ukraine” there was little else he could do. The outgoing secretary made the case for the continued support for Ukraine under the Trump administration, telling the group of 50-plus allies that "Ukraine's survival is on the line.” It’s not clear what the Trump administration will do with the $3.8 billion left in presidential authority to draw down U.S. military stocks to send to Ukraine, but Austin called for Europeans to keep a stiff upper lip. Noting that this is his last meeting, “I'm leaving this contact group not with a farewell, but with a challenge,” he said. “Coalition to support Ukraine must not flinch. It must not falter, and it must not fail. Ukraine's survival is on the line, but so is all of our security. Putin wants to avenge a fallen empire and to rebuild it. The Kremlin's assault starts with Ukraine, but it will not end there.”
| | LAWMAKERS' NEW PLEA TO ICC: A group of 42 Democratic lawmakers are urging the International Criminal Court to rescind its arrest warrants for top Israeli leaders, warning about the fallout it could have on Ukraine investigations. “At a time when the Court’s efforts to hold Russia accountable for atrocities in Ukraine require global consensus, this decision diverts attention and resources from prosecuting genuine war criminals,” the lawmakers wrote to PÄIVI KAUKORANTA, president of the assembly of States Parties at the ICC. The letter was led by Reps. EUGENE VINDMAN (D-Va.) and BRAD SCHNEIDER (D-Ill.) The letter came on the heels of the House passing a bill on Thursday that would sanction the ICC for trying to arrest Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU.
| | GEORGIA’S ‘RUSSIAN DREAM': Georgia was on Washington’s mind — and not just because politicians gathered this morning to pay homage to the late former U.S. President JIMMY CARTER at the National Cathedral. Over at the Hudson Institute, Georgia’s outgoing President SALOME ZOURABICHVILI warned that what the ruling Georgian Dream party is pursuing is a “Russian dream” and that its policies are taking the country “away from its partners” and its “decades-long path of reforms.” In her remarks, delivered via video, she also argued that “independent institutions” have been eroded by Georgian Dream with the exception of her office. Zourabichivili’s comments follow weeks of worsening political tensions in the Caucasus country. The ruling Georgian Dream party, which had come under fire from the West for growing closer to Russia and cracking down on civil society, has moved to replace Zourabichivili, a pro-Western leader who has rallied protests against their policies.
| | | | — Incoming Senate Armed Services Defense Subcommittee Chair MITCH McCONNELL announced a series of staff moves after stepping down as Senate GOP leader. ROBERT KAREM, who was McConnell’s national security adviser, will be the chief clerk on the SAC-D panel. DYLAN VORBACH, most recently McConnell’s chief speechwriter, will serve as a senior adviser for defense and foreign policy. — AMANDA FARNAN has joined Rep. Vindman’s office as communications director, after most recently serving as digital director for Sen. MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.). ELYA TAICHMAN has also joined Vindman’s office as legislative director, after most recently serving at the State Department as a senior adviser. — CLAY SEIGLE has joined the Center for Strategic and International Studies as senior fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Change Program. He was previously director of global oil at Rapidan Energy Group.
| | — RYAN BERG, Foreign Policy: This Trump administration is shaping up to be Latin America-First — DANIEL DePETRIS, Los Angeles Times: Trump wants to rekindle his KIM JONG UN bromance, but North Korea has other suitors now — The Economist: Time is not on Russia’s side, argues Finland’s foreign minister — DAVID FRENCH, The New York Times: It’s September 2026, and the Pentagon is alarmed
| | — Brookings Institution, 8:30 a.m.: How will artificial intelligence impact security relations between the United States and China? U.S. and Chinese perspectives — National Institute for Deterrence Studies, 10 a.m.: The case for homeland missile defense — U.S. Naval War College, 10 a.m.: A virtual conference on "Critical Minerals and National Security." — Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: "2025 preview: What might be the big stories shaping the Americas?"
| | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment