Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Drilling ban? Trump has bigger oil problems

Presented by Edison Electric Institute: Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation
Jan 07, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Arianna Skibell

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Edison Electric Institute

An offshore oil platform is pictured.

A 2011 picture of the Perdido oil platform located about 200 miles south of Galveston, Texas, in the Gulf of Mexico. | Jon Fahey/AP

President Joe Biden’s under-the-wire move to protect most of the U.S. coast from fossil fuel development has ignited a GOP firestorm on Capitol Hill — but all that sound and fury may ultimately be for naught.

Even if President-elect Donald Trump manages to overturn Biden’s sweeping ban on new offshore drilling — which seems doubtful despite his promises — it likely won’t bring a massive boost to U.S. oil production, write Ben Lefebvre and Zack Colman.

That’s because the country is already producing more oil and exporting more natural gas than any other nation. Drilling for more fossil fuels than the world’s markets could absorb would be bad business, leading to potential price dips, economic instability and financial losses for oil producers.

That hasn’t quelled Republican lawmakers’ pledges to douse the globe in American fuel, writes Timothy Cama.

“Republicans will reverse this outrageous decision and unleash America’s energy resources,” said John Barrasso of Wyoming, the Senate’s No. 2 Republican.

Biden’s move to shield 625 million acres of federal waters — even if it is largely a symbolic one — could prove difficult to reverse. Trump would need Congress’ sign-off, and it’s unclear whether he has the votes. The GOP’s majority is slim, and blocking offshore drilling in places that rely on coastal tourism, like Florida, is popular with both parties in those states.

A reversal of Biden’s ban is also unlikely to survive a court challenge, writes Niina H. Farah. During Trump’s first term in the White House, he unsuccessfully attempted to reverse an Obama-era ban on new offshore drilling leases in areas off the Alaskan coast and in the Atlantic Ocean.

Still, Trump reiterated his determination at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago today, where he also promised to ban the development of new windmills and to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”

Biden’s offshore drilling ban is unlikely to immediately affect the oil industry, which still holds thousands of unused leases to drill on federal land and waters. But Trump’s immigration policies and looming trade war could send energy prices through the roof — threatening his pledge to cut them in half.

Trump’s mass deportation plans could decimate a labor pool the oil industry has already complained is too shallow. The president-elect has also promised a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, which includes the more than 3 million barrels of heavy crude a day that the countries send to the U.S.

Of course, Trump has also threatened to annex Canada, which … is certainly one way to secure its oil without tariffs.

 

It's Tuesday  thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net.

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Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Ben Lefebvre takes a deeper dive into how Biden's offshore drilling ban will affect America’s energy outlook and the incoming Trump administration’s policy agenda.

Power Centers

Donald Trump speaks at a lectern.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Tuesday. | Evan Vucci/AP

Trump rails against ‘quagmire’ of enviro rules
Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago resort today, Trump declared the “beginning of a great, beautiful, golden age of business” as he ticked off grievances about the environmental review process, electric heaters, water-conserving faucets and wind turbines, writes Robin Bravender.

The president-elect's wide-ranging energy remarks come as he prepares to eliminate the Biden administration’s environmental policies, expand domestic fossil fuel production and broadly slash government regulations.

Why Jay Inslee isn’t worried about Trump
On the same day Trump won reelection to the White House, Washington state voters delivered a resounding endorsement of the state’s cap-and-invest system, arguably the strongest climate law in the country, writes Adam Aton.

The split-screen was cold comfort to most U.S. climate hawks, but Washington Gov. Jay Inslee saw something more hopeful: a model for entrenching climate action in the states — proving itself just in time.

Energy panel's newest member spurs angst
A decision to add Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and about half a dozen other members to the House Energy and Commerce Committee is causing some angst among House Democrats, write Nicholas Wu and Ben Leonard.

In an unusual move, the Steering and Policy panel filled six out of the seven open slots and left the last position open for a 10-way race. Some lawmakers are questioning why certain members like Ocasio-Cortez were selected while others were left to compete for the last open spot.

In Other News

From Trump to 'game-changing' lawsuits: Seven big climate and nature moments coming in 2025.

The Panama Canal’s newest voyagers: Fishy intruders from two oceans.

 

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Houses stand as icebergs drift by in Disko Bay in Ilulissat, Greenland

Houses stand as icebergs drift by in Disko Bay on July 15, 2024, in Ilulissat, Greenland. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Trump is lobbying to build up the U.S. presence in Greenland, an under-the-radar but strategic location that would allow the U.S. to counter Russia and dip into highly sought-after resources.

Research indicates that bouts of extreme cold and snow events may be happening more often in some parts of the U.S., potentially driven by atmospheric changes linked to global warming.

Exxon Mobil has sued California Attorney General Rob Bonta, accusing him of engaging in a “false media campaign” and “reverse greenwashing” in his rhetoric targeting the oil major.

That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.

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Across the country, we’re leading the way and working hard to meet today’s energy challenges. We’re strengthening and securing the grid to meet growing demand and to reduce outages and recover faster when they happen. We’re using a diverse, balanced, and domestic energy mix that is increasingly clean and helps ensure reliability. And, we’re advancing energy innovation while working to keep customer bills as low as possible and to meet the needs of our communities.

America needs a modern energy system for our modern age. Together, we can deliver an energy grid—and an energy future—that is reliable, weather-resilient, responsive, and ready for the demand arriving now.

 
 

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