Tuesday, January 7, 2025

Biden rushes to clinch Gitmo legacy

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Jan 07, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Robbie Gramer and Connor O’Brien

A humvee passes the guard tower at the entrance of the U.S. prison at Guantanamo Bay.

Guantanamo Bay has long been a subject of criticism from human rights groups and legal scholars and a symbol of America’s war on terror days for its prolonged detention of terror suspects. | John Moore/Getty Images

By Robbie Gramer and Connor O’Brien

With help from John Sakellariadis, Joe Gould and Daniel Lippman

Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric

President JOE BIDEN’s team is touting one potential victory for his foreign policy in his final days — getting the Guantanamo Bay prison as close to empty as possible.

The Biden administration released nearly a dozen detainees in its latest move, bringing the facility’s population to its lowest level ever.

But it’s a complicated victory, as no one expects the prison to entirely empty out amid a thicket of thorny complicated and legal questions — even after early pledges by Biden to close the facility.

Some detainees have been charged or convicted of war crimes. Biden’s own Defense secretary, LLOYD AUSTIN, even overrode plea agreements for Sept. 11, 2001 terror attack masterminds detained in Gitmo, though a court later overruled Austin. Transferring other detainees requires complex diplomatic negotiations with their home countries or other countries open to receiving them.

One high-profile detainee is also reportedly caught up as a bargaining chip in sensitive U.S. negotiations with the Taliban to free U.S. citizens detained in Afghanistan — though two administration officials said these negotiations were more about the desire to free detained Americans abroad than the goal of zeroing out Gitmo’s population. The officials were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive government deliberations.

Still, Biden has transferred 11 detainees from Gitmo to Oman to begin new lives just days before leaving office, bringing the detention center’s total population down to just 15 prisoners — from 40 when Biden took office. The latest deal came about through months of behind-the-scenes negotiations with Oman as part of the goal to reduce the prison population as much as possible before Biden leaves office, according to two administration officials. The officials were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive government deliberations.

Gitmo has long been a subject of criticism from human rights groups and legal scholars and a symbol of America’s war on terror days for its prolonged detention of terror suspects, some of whom were detained without facing formal criminal charges for decades. At its height in 2003, Gitmo had some 680 prisoners.

None of the newly released men have been charged with crimes. The U.S. government says all were former members of al Qaeda — charges they deny — but deemed that they were no longer national security threats. Of the 15 remaining in the facility, three have been approved of being transferred but are still in detention.

The National Security Council said that Biden remains committed to protecting Americans while also providing safe and humane treatment for detainees at Guantanamo.

But not everyone’s on board with this so-called victory lap. Republicans on Capitol Hill slammed the move, some of whom have long criticized Democratic administrations’ attempts to close the detention center or winnow down the number of detainees.

"The Biden Administration has yet again lied to Congress & released 11 terrorists from Guantanamo Bay in the dark of night," the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Republicans posted on X. "This is unspeakably dangerous as terror threats are on the rise. This shameful action by Biden brings more danger to the American people."

Efforts to close the prison — the official position of the Biden and Obama administrations — have long been stymied by Congress, even when fellow Democrats have held power. Defense policy legislation signed by Biden in December includes language blocking Pentagon funding from being used to transfer detainees to the U.S. or to build facilities in the U.S. to hold prisoners currently at Gitmo — key steps the administration would likely need to take to shutter the prison. It also bars the Pentagon from transferring or releasing detainees to Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen or Afghanistan.

Though Biden signed the bill into law, he nonetheless dinged Congress for tying his hands, arguing restrictions on detainee transfers "unduly impair" the process. "I urge the Congress to eliminate these restrictions as soon as possible," Biden said in a signing statement last month.

The Inbox

A LAST-MINUTE DECLARATION: The Biden administration accused a militia in Sudan of perpetrating genocide today. The declaration, coupled with a raft of new sanctions on the Rapid Support Forces militia and its leader, Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, represents an 11th hour effort by the outgoing administration to ratchet up pressure on warring parties in Sudan’s devastating civil war before leaving office.

Analysts and human rights groups have been calling on the administration to make such a move for months as Sudan’s civil war spirals into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Some view the new declaration, just 13 days before Biden leaves office, as an effort to compel Trump to take tougher action on Sudan. It also may be too late.

“This feels like a salve on this administration’s conscience — a vain attempt to position itself on the right side of history as they depart,” said Cameron Hudson, a former State Department official and analyst on U.S. Africa policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

PARTING SHOT: Biden’s late flurry of foreign policy moves also includes Hungary. The State Department announced today it is sanctioning a senior Hungarian official, ANTAL ROGAN, over his role in corruption.

And the sanctions announcement for Rogan had a bit more spice than the usual bland and buttoned-up diplomatic statements: “Rogan’s activity is emblematic of the broader climate of impunity in Hungary where key elements of the state have been captured by oligarchs and undemocratic actors.” (By State Department standards, that’s actually pretty spicy.)

The United States and other European countries have accused fellow NATO ally Hungary of backsliding from democracy under Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBAN. We’ll watch to see if Trump lifts those when he takes office, given how Orban has become something of an icon in some national conservative circles in the United States.

AN INAUGURAL STANDOFF: EDMUNDO GONZALEZ URRUTIA, the opposition candidate recognized by the U.S. as Venezuela’s president-elect, faces steep odds in a quest to return to the country and be sworn in on Friday instead of strongman NICOLAS MADURO. How high are the stakes? On Tuesday morning, his son-in-law was abducted by hooded men, González wrote on social media.

In an interview with our own NAHAL TOOSI on Monday, though, González was upbeat. He even pointed to the downfall of Syria’s dictator BASHAR AL-ASSAD as an example of why pro-democracy forces should never give up. That said, Gonzalez was in Washington seeking support from everyone from President JOE BIDEN to aides of President-elect DONALD TRUMP, hoping U.S. pressure will help push Maduro out.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.

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Transition 2024

GREENLAND JITTERS: The president-elect issued a fresh and provocative warning about his plans to acquire the Panama canal and Greenland, the strategically important Arctic territory. When asked in a press conference whether he would rule out military or economic coercion to take control of these areas, Trump said: “No, I’m not going to commit to that. It might be that you'll have to do something.”

And out in the Arctic, DONALD TRUMP JR. arrived in Greenland today in another sign of Trump’s fixation on acquiring the Arctic territory — though the junior Trump had no meetings with Greenland officials.

As your lead NatSec Daily author reported Monday, acquiring Greenland from Denmark appears to be a major foreign policy goal for the incoming president, angering both the Danes and some Greenland officials who reiterate that the territory is not for sale. However, it offers a preview of the rocky and raucous path that Trump may head down with NATO ally Denmark once he takes office. Many Trump critics agree that Greenland represents an important strategic island for future competition in the Arctic with rivals such as Russia and China — even if they disagree with Trump’s, err, very Trumpian approach to it.

Danish Prime Minister METTE FREDERIKSEN had a blunt reaction to Trump’s push on Tuesday (prior to his press conference), as our colleagues SEB STARCEVIC and JAKOB WEIZMAN report: “Greenland is not for sale and will not be in the future either.”

Keystrokes

TRUST LAUNCH: The White House formally launched a new consumer labeling program Tuesday to beef up the security of “smart” devices — internet-connected hardware that is now ubiquitous in Americans’ homes, as JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!).

The program, known as the U.S. Cyber Trust Mark, aims to nudge manufactures of everything from refrigerators and security cameras to baby monitors to build stronger protections against hacking into their products. It comes as foreign state hackers and cybercriminals have increasingly exploited basic vulnerabilities in those devices to spy on Americans or stage cyberattacks.

“Each one of these devices presents a digital door that motivated cyber attackers are eager to enter,” ANNE NEUBERGER, the White House’s top cybersecurity official, told reporters Tuesday. “Companies need to have an incentive to bake security into products.”

The Complex

ICEBREAKER PACT ON ICE: Trump announced he told Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU he doesn’t need partners to build ice-breaking vessels, throwing a U.S.-Canada-Finland collaboration into doubt, as Joe and Paul report (For Pros!).

The ICE Pact announced at July’s NATO summit, aimed to share supply chains and cut costs to shore up America’s lagging icebreaker know-how and fleet in the face of Arctic competition with China. But it was a casualty of Trump’s anger at Canada over trade and security burden-sharing questions. Trump, at a freewheeling press conference, didn’t rule out statehood for Canada.

“I called him, Gov. Trudeau, I said, ‘Listen, what would happen if we didn’t subsidize you?’ Because we give them a lot of money, we help them,” Trump said, repeating a jab in referring to the prime minister as a governor. “As an example, we’re buying icebreakers, and Canada wants to join us in the buying of icebreakers. I said, ‘We don’t really want to have a partner in the buying of icebreakers. We don’t need a partner.’”

MISSILE DEFENSE CONTRACTS: Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Patriot missile defense systems have been flying off the rack and in hot demand in Eastern Europe. The latest news on that: Raytheon this week announced it secured a nearly $1 billion contract for new Patriot systems.

NATO allies are increasingly bundling up their orders from U.S. defense primes for these types of systems in a bid to give defense industry larger and steadier contracts as TIM MARTIN reports for Breaking Defense.

ON THE HILL

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: RUBIO AND STEFANIK HEARINGS ON TRACK: Two of Trump’s picks for top administration posts are slated to have their confirmation hearings soon, as two Senate aides tell NatSec Daily.

Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fl.), Trump’s pick to be secretary of State, is expected to have his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 15. Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.), his pick to be U.N. ambassador, is tentatively set to face the Senate panel for her confirmation hearing on Jan. 16.

The aides were granted anonymity as they weren’t authorized to discuss these matters before they are public. Neither Rubio nor Stefanik face significant hurdles to confirmation, unlike some of Trump’s other more controversial nominees like DOD’s PETE HEGSETH and top intelligence chief pick TULSI GABBARD.

Broadsides

TRUMP BASHES CARTER OVER PANAMA: Trump slammed former President JIMMY CARTER over his agreement to transfer ownership of the Panama Canal to Panama just a day before the late former president lies in state at the U.S. Capitol, as our colleague IRIE SENTNER reports.

“Jimmy Carter gave it to them for $1 and they were supposed to treat us well. I thought it was a terrible thing to do,” Trump said today at a news conference at Mar-a-Lago. “Nobody wants to talk about the Panama Canal now, it’s inappropriate I guess, because it’s a bad part of the Carter legacy,” Trump added. He said Carter was “a good man” and “a very fine person,” but that “giving the Panama Canal to Panama was a very big mistake.”

Transitions

ROB JOYCE, former cybersecurity director at the National Security Agency and acting homeland security adviser in Trump’s first term, has joined the cyber-focused venture capital firm DataTribe as a venture partner.

MARK HANNAH has been named the new CEO of the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group. He currently is a senior fellow and interim executive director.

What to Read

KYLE CHENEY and NICHOLAS WU, POLITICO: Jan. 6, 2021 is in the rearview. The battle to define it for history is in full swing

LIAM DENNING, Bloomberg: Why would Trump buy Greenland when he can rent it?

TOQA EZZIDIN, New Lines Magazine: Assad’s fall sparks fear and reflection in Egypt

Tomorrow Today

Council on Foreign Relations, 11:45 a.m.: Distinguished Voices Series With H.R. McMaster

Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: How Putin’s Kremlingarchs have survived the war — and even prospered

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: The role of religion and spirituality in U.S. security assistance

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is detaining us without a warrant.

Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is working to transfer us to freedom.

 

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Eric Bazail-Eimil @ebazaileimil

 

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