THE BUZZ: DOWN TO THE WIRE — San Francisco Mayor London Breed sounds awfully upbeat for an incumbent who, polls suggest, could soon be ousted by an heir to the billion-dollar Levi Strauss fortune. Much of the city’s political establishment, including some longtime Breed allies, have been skeptical about her chances to shake up the trajectory of the race amid signs that Daniel Lurie, the jeans fortune heir and a nonprofit founder, is surging as he pours millions of his wealth into TV ads. But for all the headwinds she’s facing, Breed’s closing argument to voters is an optimistic counterpunch to the doom-loop narrative that has haunted her time in office: Look how the city has bounced back after she led through perilous times. “I came up out of the concrete, the dirt of San Francisco. I am the change,” Breed told Playbook earlier this week as she campaigned in the city’s Sunset District, a residential area home to one of the country’s most concentrated Asian-American communities. “This is what I do best. When the battle is coming, I don't run away from it like others.” Breed was all smiles as she sat down for an interview during a break while she went door-to-door visiting small business owners along Taraval Street, a commercial corridor lined with shops catering to Asian-American residents. Lurie and her other opponents have tried to siphon her support among Chinese-speaking voters in particular — one of the city’s most powerful voting blocs where Breed has lost support due to frustrations over crime and the city’s ailing school system. The incumbent mayor faces a crowded field of Democratic challengers, who’ve all blamed her for the trifecta of post-pandemic crises — widespread homelessness, a fentanyl overdose epidemic and brazen theft — that have made San Francisco a butt of jokes nationally. Breed, a moderate Democrat, has tried to counter negative narratives with statistics about how the city’s response in the last few years has improved street conditions: Property and violent crime rates have decreased dramatically. Drug overdose deaths are down sharply after a record peak last year. There are fewer tent encampments on the streets (though more homeless people overall, counting those in shelters). But many voters in the city are frustrated and don’t appear to have been swayed by improving stats. That’s where Lurie’s camp has seized on his pitch as a first-time candidate, a change agent. Max Szabo, Lurie’s spokesperson, said Breed’s message isn’t connecting with voters who wanted results years ago. “People have their personal experiences and London Breed is throwing statistics at them,” Szabo said. Lurie and Breed have topped the polls, but the race is hardly a two-person affair. Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, the only progressive contender, has picked up steam in recent polls as liberal voters look for an alternative to the moderate Democrats in the race. Former interim Mayor Mark Farrell is also close to the front of the pack, and he has embraced the most tough-on-crime rhetoric. But Lurie’s financial war chest has been a formidable advantage. He and his immediate family members have spent roughly $10 million on the race, an unprecedented sum for the city that has given him more than a 3-1 spending edge over Breed and the other contenders. Farrell and Lurie have also been engaged in a bare-knuckle series of attacks, often focusing their firepower on each other more than the incumbent. Farrell argued that while the contest is a “change election,” voters also “don’t want a milquetoast trust fund kid who is trying to appeal to everyone by standing for nothing.” Breed’s advisers say the slugfest between Lurie and Farrell could help her break through in the final days as voters get sick of an endless stream of negative mailers and TV ads. Breed’s TV ads are focused on her results as mayor, as well as her difficult life story. She grew up in public housing in the city’s historically-Black Fillmore neighborhood, which faced a wave of gun violence and crack addiction at the time. Her mother was addicted to drugs, she lost her younger sister to a drug overdose and her older brother remains incarcerated on manslaughter charges. Breed said those experiences gave her Teflon skin to lead in tough times like a global pandemic or natural disaster. She said her main opponents, white men with various degrees of wealth, lack that perspective. Breed’s campaign is leaning into her strong support among Black and Latino voters, as a recent poll from the San Francisco Chronicle suggests. Her team is telling residents to vote for presidential nominee Kamala Harris first and Breed second — encouraging them to skip listing a second candidate on the city’s ranked-choice ballot. “I don't think any of these candidates have ever struggled with paying rent, or potentially being homeless or housing insecure,” Breed said. “There has never been a mayor of San Francisco like me.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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