Friday, November 1, 2024

Is This Massive Retailer Back in "Buy" Territory?

Shield

AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

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Macy's Is Making Progress... Is It Back in "Buy" Territory?

Anthony Summers, Director of Trading, The Oxford Club

Anthony Summers

Macy's (NYSE: M) is one of America's most iconic retailers - and one of my favorite places to shop. But lately, it's been making headlines for its strategic transformation rather than its famous Thanksgiving Day parade.

The department store giant, which operates Macy's, Bloomingdale's, and Bluemercury stores nationwide, has seen its stock price bounce between $10 and $20 over the past year as it's worked to reinvent itself for the modern shopper.

Chart: Macy's (NYSE: M)
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Let's dig into the numbers to see whether (with apologies to Bob Barker) the price is right.

At first glance, Macy's might look cheap - much like the clothing rack in its stores' "Last Act" clearance section. Its enterprise value-to-net asset value (EV/NAV) ratio is 2.27, well below the average of 6.35 for companies with positive net assets. Put another way, you could theoretically buy all of Macy's assets at a significant discount to what similar companies are worth.

However, there's a reason for the steep discount: The company has posted negative free cash flow in three of the past four quarters.

When it does generate cash, though, it performs better than you might expect. Over the past four quarters, its quarterly free cash flow has averaged 4.01% of its net assets, compared with -9.05% for companies with similar cash flow patterns.

Furthermore, the numbers from Macy's most recent quarter are telling us an important story...

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