Friday, November 1, 2024

Advice for watching House results: Pack your patience

Presented by BAE Systems: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead
Nov 01, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nicholas Wu

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With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

From right, Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., Rep. Salud Carbajal, D-Calif., and Rep. Jake Auchincloss, D-Mass., listen during a news conference on national security legislation on Capitol Hill Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Hill offices can still function normally while they wait to know who won, though candidates might have to delay their staffing and transition plans. | AP

DON’T PANIC OVER HOUSE RESULTS

It took us a little more than a week last cycle to learn who controlled the House. And with both parties expecting a close election across dozens of battleground districts this year, get ready to wait on news about who holds the majority. Again. 

“As a candidate, you're sitting there in limbo,” said Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.), whose safely Democratic district still took a full week for The Associated Press to call last cycle.

Rep. Salud Carbjal (D-Calif.), who was driving to campaign in California swing districts with Bera, said voters, staffers (and, let’s be honest, journalists) need to trust the process: “It's worth the wait to make sure that every vote gets counted and that we are hopefully more successful at the ballot. Yes, the wait can be a little bit anxiety-driving, but at the end of the day, the benefit is great.”

Hill offices can still function normally while they wait to know who won, though candidates might have to delay their staffing and transition plans. Democrats are also particularly worried about what a protracted battle over House control could mean for the spread of election disinformation, like in 2020.

And awkward situations could arise during the lame-duck period.

Take the new member orientation, which is scheduled for the two weeks Congress is in session before Thanksgiving. Candidates on both sides of an uncalled race might both show up.

A spokesperson for the House Administration Committee’s Republicans said, per their standard practice for previous Congresses, both candidates would be invited to attend New Member Orientation if their race is still uncalled by the start of the program. But, according to the spokesperson: “If the race is called during New Member Orientation, the prevailing candidate will continue programming through completion and the unsuccessful candidate will immediately return home.”

A senior Democratic committee aide said they were prepping for “multiple scenarios as it relates to federal elections, voting rights, and House of Representatives operations and continue to be in constant communication with those institutional House partners” like the Architect of the Capitol and the Chief Administrative Officer.

Another potential wrinkle: House leadership elections. House Republicans have scheduled their leadership contests for Nov. 13, when the House election results could possibly still be unclear. House Democrats are expected to hold their elections the week after, though they have not officially put them on the calendar.

House Republicans are currently sticking to their plan to hold leadership elections the week after the election. But some Republicans are already privately questioning that timeline, since there will be races in key districts likely still pending at that point, and the battle for control of the majority is expected to go down to the last few calls. Leadership slots on both sides of the aisle also hinge on knowing who will actually control the House.

On the Democratic side : Most of the current leadership structure is expected to move up a rung if they take the majority, though there’s already been some quiet maneuvering by Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) and Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) for the vice chair position that could be vacated by Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.).

House Democratic leaders told lawmakers on a campaign call earlier this week that they should be prepared to sit tight and wait for the election to be decided.

“They're just reminding everybody that it could take a few days to call it, and everybody needs to be vigilant and diligent in making sure that all the T's are crossed, all the dots are dotted, that we have monitors to make sure that there's no foul play by anyone, and that we continue to make sure there's fidelity in our elections,” Carbajal said.

— Nicholas Wu, with an assist from Katherine Tully-McManus and Jordain Carney 

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Friday, Nov. 1, where we’re looking at Election Day baking.

 

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DEMS CLAIM REGISTRATION EDGE 

House Democrats are touting a voter registration edge in battleground districts heading into Election Day.

Among 66 purple districts identified by the DCCC, more than 1.4 million people registered to vote between July and September, according to the party campaign arm, of which 376,000 were Democrats, outpacing the 304,871 Republican registrations. It was equal to the total number of people who registered in the previous six months in those districts (though we would expect voter registrations to pick up as we got closer to Election Day).

668,000 women, younger women in particular, registered in the battleground districts during the same timeframe, and in July alone, women were 52.1% of new registrations. The DCCC said that more women registered compared to men in competitive districts like Pennsylavnia’s 10th and 7th, New York’s 22nd, and Iowa’s 1st Congressional.

The party campaign arm is saying they also broke door-knocking records in these final months, with 1,343,980 doors knocked between Oct. 1-30, more than any other month this cycle and a 93 percent increase from September, when 8,340 volunteers knocked on 696,630 doors.

“Americans across the House battlefield are fired up and registering to vote to make their voices heard to reject House Republicans’ extremism,” said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton. “House Democrats are working tirelessly in the final days before Election Day to connect with and turn out every single voter, whether it’s their first time or tenth time at the ballot box.”

— Nicholas Wu

 

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ELECTION VIBE CHECK 

Election anxiety is running high across the country and inside the Senate Democratic Caucus, at least according to one of its members.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) told reporters Friday that he’s “nervous” because it’s a “nail-biter election, and there's a lot at stake.”

“Everybody is nervous, but I think Harris has run a really good campaign and I believe she has been strong. But the reality is that none of us know what’s going to happen, it’s so razor-thin in these battleground states,” Welch added about the presidential election.

Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) told reporters recently that after traveling to the Democratic convention earlier this year and watching the debate between Harris and Trump, he told his wife “I think it’s over” — an indication he believes Harris was a lock to win.

“But it isn’t over and it ain't over till it's over,” he added.

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: Carper said there was a good vibe in North Carolina (which he visited recently), Pennsylvania and Delaware. But what will the election come down to? “Ground game” and who can turn out more of their voters.

Some Dems are not embracing the national freak out: Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told reporters earlier this week that Democrats are “executing well and they’re not,” referring to Republicans.

“Just statistically speaking. You don't make your closing argument deeply offensive to a half a million people in a swing state and a million people in Florida. There's no universe in which this is a smart strategy,” Schatz said. (It’s worth noting: His remarks were before Biden’s “garbage” comments.)

— Jordain Carney, with an assist from Ursula Perano

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

 We also know a bagel hates to see Dan Goldman coming. (You’ll recall Goldman launched the Congressional Bagel Caucus.)

How does Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell try to (jokingly?) sway Sen. Lisa Murkowski ? What the Alaska Republican told Michael Tackett for his book “The Price of Power”: “Every now and again he’ll give me a call and he’ll say, ‘your spiritual adviser would like to have a few moments with you if you would agree.’”

Eric Schmitt flew with Trump and RFK Jr. to Michigan and Wisconsin.

A sitting member of Congress is on the cover of Maxim magazine.

Barbara Lee is looking for a post-Congress promotion.

 

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QUICK LINKS 

Dems say they will certify a Trump victory — even the ones who think the 14th Amendment disqualifies him, from Kyle and Nicholas

Some Virginia voters think Vindman’s brother is the one on the ballot, from Teo Armus at The Washington Post

Grijalva plans return, but succession fight looms, from Garrett Downs and Hannah Northey at E&E News

Schumer gives a Senate Democratic forecast — including a Nebraska independent from Jordain

Mitch McConnell: Electoral College protects against 'whims of the majority', Marina Johnson in the Louisville Courier Journal

Land of the million-dollar starter home could decide the fate of Congress, from Melanie Mason

I’ve Seen a Lot as a Political Journalist. I Didn’t Expect My Former Boss to Run for Office, from Ben Jacobs in Slate

As an OC supervisor, Michelle Steel awarded a $1.2M pandemic meals contract to her campaign mail printer from Nick Gerda and Josie Huang at LAist

Shadowy groups seek to hurt House GOP incumbent by boosting independent challenger, from Emily Brooks at the Hill

TRANSITIONS 

Lauren Camp is now account executive at Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies’ comms practice. She was most recently press secretary for the House Oversight Committee under Chair James Comer (R-Ky.).

Jamitress Bowden is now communications director for the House Administration Committee Democrats. She’s a House Oversight and Education and Workforce alum.

MONDAY IN CONGRESS

The House is not in session.

The Senate convenes at 11:00 a.m. for a pro forma session.

MONDAY AROUND THE HILL

Crickets.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY’S ANSWER: Christopher Casey was the first to correctly answer that Theodore Roosevelt was the U.S. president who set the world record for most handshakes in one day.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Christopher: Which speaker of the House, following an objection from a member to being counted as present during a quorum call, said: “The chair is making a statement of the fact that the gentleman from Kentucky is present. Does he deny it?”

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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