Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Is Retail Giant Walmart Poised for Potential Breakout?

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"With its fresh squeeze and strong fundamentals, I believe Walmart has the potential to break out to new highs."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

The markets are showing impressive resilience as we approach the end of 2024. Goldman Sachs has recently boosted its year-end target for the S&P 500, projecting further gains into 2025.

This bullish sentiment is supported by solid economic growth, anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and expanding corporate earnings.

The S&P 500 closed the third quarter at an all-time high and has continued its upward trajectory, rising for four consecutive weeks. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20.5%, the market's momentum seems poised to continue.

That said, I want to continue to look at plays in stocks that have a strong chart with the potential for more upside.

That's why I want to bring your attention to a retail giant that's showing some very interesting signals: Walmart (WMT).

 

While most know Walmart as the world's largest retailer, there's more to this retail giant:

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  • E-commerce Powerhouse: Walmart has significantly expanded its digital presence, with e-commerce sales growing 24% year-over-year in Q2 2025.
  • Walmart+: The company's membership program, launched in 2020, offers benefits like free shipping, fuel discounts, and early access to deals. It's becoming a strong competitor to Amazon Prime.
  • Advertising Business: Walmart Connect, the company's advertising arm, saw a 35% increase in revenue in Q2 2025.
  • International Expansion: Walmart International net sales increased 11.5% in Q2, with particular strength in Mexico and China.
  • Healthcare Initiatives: Walmart Health is expanding, offering affordable healthcare services in select locations.

Why I like Walmart right now:

  1. Strong Year-to-Date Performance: Walmart has been crushing it this year, up an impressive 51% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the broader market.
  2. Earnings Winner: On August 15, Walmart delivered strong second-quarter fiscal 2025 results, beating both top and bottom line estimates. The stock surged over 7% following the earnings release.
  3. Holiday Season Boost: As we approach the crucial holiday shopping season, Walmart is well-positioned to capitalize on consumer spending. The company's diverse offerings, from groceries to electronics, make it a one-stop shop for holiday shoppers. Its expanded e-commerce capabilities and efficient supply chain management should help it meet increased demand.
  4. Fresh Daily Squeeze: Walmart got a fresh daily squeeze yesterday. The Squeeze is a powerful momentum indicator that helps identify potential breakouts. It measures the relationship between Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels to detect periods of consolidation (squeeze) before explosive moves.
  5. Stacked EMAs: Walmart is currently showing stacked Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This is bullish because it indicates strong upward momentum across multiple timeframes. When shorter-term EMAs are above longer-term EMAs, it suggests that recent price action is outperforming historical trends.
  6. Consolidation Near Highs: After its post-earnings jump, the stock has held onto its gains and is now trading in a tight range near its 52-week high of $81.80. This consolidation near recent highs can often precede a breakout.

Your Action Plan:

  • Watch for a breakout above the recent high of $81.80.
  • Consider entering on a break above this level with a stop loss below the consolidation range.
  • Target new all-time highs beyond $81.80 for potential profits.

While a move to new highs might sound like small potatoes, let me tell you— when you're trading options like how I do, the potential returns can be amplified.

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