| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  In a bonus scene from her “60 Minutes” interview with CBS’ Bill Whitaker, Kamala Harris was asked who she considers to be the nation's “greatest adversary,” to which she responded: “Iran has American blood on their hands.” | Kent Nishimura/Getty Images | With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Vice President KAMALA HARRIS has a hot geopolitical take: Iran, not China, is the United States’ biggest threat. But some in the Washington national security world and across the political spectrum strongly disagree. In a bonus scene from her “60 Minutes” interview with CBS’ BILL WHITAKER, the vice president was asked who she considers to be the nation's “greatest adversary,” to which she responded: “Iran has American blood on their hands.” Harris also pointed to Tehran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel last week as evidence of Iran’s capabilities, saying “What we need to do to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power, that is one of my highest priorities.” Her comments left those in the NatSec world wondering — what about China? “I actually don’t know anybody who works in national security who would be asked this and say Iran,” said REBECCAH HEINRICHS of the Hudson Institute think tank. “Iran is decidedly a rogue state problem, a serious threat, but not the same type as an actual peer adversary like China.” Heinrichs and other national security analysts we spoke to listed off some reasons why: China has the most advanced economy and advanced military to rival the United States, the largest spying operations in the United States (based on publicly available information), a growing naval force that rivals the power of the U.S. navy, and a rapidly expanding nuclear weapons program that is on track to compete with U.S. stockpiles in the coming decades. Harris’ assertion even runs counter to the Biden-Harris administration’s 2022 national security strategy, which labels China as “America’s most consequential geopolitical challenge.” That strategy mentions China over 50 times and Iran just eight times — though it was also published a year before the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel that put Iran and its proxy network in the spotlight and plunged the Middle East into crisis. Harris campaign spokesperson MORGAN FINKELSTEIN declined to offer additional comment when reached by NatSec Daily. Even Middle East experts agree with the consensus that China, not Iran, poses the top threat to Washington. DAVID SCHENKER, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs during the Trump administration, told NatSec Daily that Iran is a “significant threat” but added, “There’s little debate that China, Russia and North Korea rank higher on the list of threats.” That thinking also extends to the left end of the political spectrum. The trouble with Harris’ comments, argues SINA TOOSSI, a fellow with the progressive Center for International Policy, is that they misrepresent Iran’s capabilities and exaggerate Iran’s “power and influence” in the region. It could also raise the prospects of further conflict between the U.S. and Iran. “While Iran has some advanced missiles and drones, these are no match for the military power of the U.S. or even Israel,” he said. “If we continue down this path of reflexively demonizing Iran, we are doomed to repeat the mistakes of Iraq — locking ourselves into a cycle of endless conflict with no clear benefit to U.S. security or stability in the region.”
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The U.S. Army’s new Sentinel A4 radar—a revolutionary leap from the legacy Sentinel A3—will counter cruise missiles, unmanned aerial systems, rotary wing and fixed wing threats, offering flexible mission performance and growth potential. Learn more. | | | | | HEZBOLLAH LEADER TAKEN OUT: Israel has killed yet another leader of the militant group Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU announced today that airstrikes took out HASHEM SAFIEDDINE, the successor to deceased Hezbollah leader HASSAN NASRALLAH, who was killed last month in an Israeli strike in Lebanon. It’s the latest shock to the Iran-backed proxy’s leadership structure, which has been virtually decimated amid Israel’s strikes against the group’s positions in Beirut and southern Lebanon. BLINKEN’S BURMA PUSH: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is headed to Asia for a gathering of ASEAN countries, and Myanmar is at the top of his agenda, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Blinken will push ASEAN to “keep up the pressure” on Myanmar’s military rulers to negotiate an end to the country’s conflict in a meeting of the group’s leaders in Vientiane, Laos later this week. And Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs DANIEL KRITENBRINK told reporters today that Myanmar accepting the grouping’s Five Point Consensus for peace — which includes “immediate cessation of violence” and “constructive dialogue” between the military junta and the ethnic militias seeking its overthrow — is “a top issue” for Blinken, “We have seen virtually zero progress on any of those priorities,” Kritenbrink said. Blinken will also raise Beijing’s increasingly aggressive incursions into Philippine waters of the South China Sea and China’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine in discussions with ASEAN leaders, said Kritenbrink. CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS: The White House is postponing President JOE BIDEN’s trip to Germany and Angola this week as Florida prepares for the arrival of Hurricane Milton. As our own ELI STOKOLS and ADAM CANCRYN report, Biden was supposed to go to Germany for a meeting of G7 leaders to discuss the war in Ukraine and then visit Angola, fulfilling a pledge to visit the African continent before the end of his first term in office. The visit would have seen Biden celebrate the planned Lobito Corridor, a Western-supported infrastructure project that would create rail links between Africa’s Atlantic and Indian Ocean coasts. Biden isn’t the only official revising their plans this week — Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters today that it is unclear whether Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN will go to Germany now that Biden is delaying his visit. (Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT has also postponed his trip to Washington, though that's likely unrelated to the hurricane.) RETURN OF ISIS: The head of British intelligence agency MI5 is warning that ISIS is regaining force and posing a renewed threat to the West. As our own MASON BOYCOTT-OWEN reports, MI5 Director-General KEN McCALLUM warned at a press conference in central London that “today’s Islamic State is not the force it was a decade ago, but after a few years of being pinned well back, they’ve resumed their efforts to export terrorism.” ISIS-K, the group’s affiliate based in Afghanistan and Pakistan, carried out a devastating March terror attack on a Moscow concert hall, which McCallum pointed to as evidence of the group’s renewed capabilities. EVADING XINJIANG SANCTIONS: Pharmaceutical companies in China’s western Xinjiang province are still allowed to export medicines to the United States despite U.S. sanctions. As our own LAUREN GARDNER reports (for Pros!), a report released today by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies shows that SEL Biochem Xinjiang Co. and Xinjiang Nuziline Bio-Pharmaceutical Co. are licensed by the Food and Drug Administration to export to the U.S. through the end of 2024, in contradiction of a law passed in 2021 effectively banning imports of products made there. The law exists in response to allegations of human rights abuses against the region’s Uyghur community IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | DIRECT LINE TO MAR-A-LAGO: A new book by BOB WOODWARD is alleging that former President DONALD TRUMP has held multiple calls with Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN since the former left office in 2021. As our own ANDREW HOWARD reports, a Trump aide told the Washington Post reporter and author that there have been “maybe as many as seven” calls between Trump and Putin since Trump left the White House. Trump also gave Putin testing equipment during the Covid-19 pandemic. The Trump campaign is vehemently rejecting Woodward’s reporting. Spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG accused the veteran journalist of suffering “from a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome” and issued a sweeping statement calling all of Woodward’s reporting “made up.” The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment from NatSec Daily on the specific allegations of Trump speaking with Putin after he left office in 2021. Neither did the Harris campaign. Harris criticized the alleged gifting of Covid-19 testing equipment, saying in an interview with radio shock jock HOWARD STERN that it “is just the most recent stark example of who Donald Trump is.”
| | UKRAINE’S CYBER CHARGE: Hackers linked to Ukraine have compromised the Russian court system’s computer network and some Russian state television stations, marking a second day of Kyiv inflicting digital damage on Moscow. As the Washington Post’s ROBYN DIXON reports, the hacking group “BO Team” posted a message attributing the digital strike to Putin’s birthday, which was yesterday. The Kremlin confirmed the cyberattack, with spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV saying that VGTRK, Russia’s state television and media company, suffered an “unprecedented hacker attack on its digital infrastructure.” Television stations affected by the hack on their digital broadcasting platforms still continued to broadcast their traditional analog signal, but the hack could mark a new reach for Ukraine’s cyber capabilities.
| | | |   | | | | | RTX’S TAIPEI TIFF: Major defense contractor RTX is being accused of overcharging Taiwan on weapons sales — but stakeholders are keeping quiet about the alleged mishandling. As Phelim wrote in today’s China Watcher Newsletter, Taiwanese Defense Minister WELLINGTON KOO told a hearing of the island’s legislature on Monday that Taipei has requested the Biden administration probe RTX (formerly Raytheon) for allegedly overcharging for weapon sales to the island. Koo said that Taipei wants the U.S. government to probe “all similar arms packages provided by RTX to make sure no irregularities are involved,” Taiwan state media reported Monday. Koo’s comments followed his assertion on Friday that RTX had agreed to “compensate” Taiwan for any overcharging in the firm’s sales to the island. The Defense Cooperation Security Agency and Taiwan’s diplomatic outpost in Washington didn’t respond to requests for comment. RTX declined to comment. The Pentagon also declined comment and referred China Watcher to the State Department. The State Department is ”committed to safeguarding the integrity of the military contracting process and holding accountable those who undermine the integrity of government procurement systems,” said a State Department spokesperson granted anonymity because they aren’t authorized to speak on record about foreign arms sales issues. The spokesperson declined to comment on Koo’s assertions and referred China Watcher to the Department of Justice. DOJ declined to comment.
| | SUDAN SANCTIONS: The Biden administration issued a new round of sanctions today targeting a key actor involved in Sudan’s civil war. The Treasury Department targeted ALGONEY HAMDAN DAGLO MUSA, a senior leader in the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, a top militia group fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces. The RSF has been accused of widespread atrocities in Sudan, including ethnic cleansing and massacres of civilians. Most notably, Algoney is brother to MOHAMED HAMDAN “HEMEDTI” DAGALO, the head of the RSF. One official in Washington said the sanctions constituted a warning shot at Hemedti that he could be next. (Hemedti has yet to face direct U.S. sanctions himself.) Sudan’s civil war has plunged the country into what is considered the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with tens of millions teetering on the brink of famine. It has also become a hotbed of regional powers such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Russia and Iran all arming various factions and vying for influence.
| | — Former climate envoy and Secretary of State JOHN KERRY joined the energy transition investment firm Galvanize Climate Solutions as co-executive chair. The firm was founded in 2021 by KATIE HALL and TOM STEYER.
| | — DOUGLAS LONDON, POLITICO: Why Israel’s war against Hezbollah could backfire — on the US — JEFFREY FRIEDMAN and ANDREW PAYNE, Foreign Affairs: The myth that foreign policy doesn’t matter in presidential elections — EDUARDO PORTER, The Washington Post: Mexico is facing an emergency. Washington must help
| | — George Washington University Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, 9 a.m.: How Is Ukrainian opinion changing as the war grinds on? Discussion of new data from a five-wave survey — Atlantic Council and the International Republican Institute, 9:30 a.m.: A discussion with Assistant Secretary of State DAFNA RAND on "Advancing Democracy; U.S. Global Leadership and Priorities" — Wilson Center's Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative and the Wilson Center's Latin America Program, 10:30 a.m.: Tackling the root causes: Food insecurity and forced migration in Latin America — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 11 a.m.: XI JINPING's search for a lasting legacy — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 1 p.m.: Youth resilience in war-torn Ukraine Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, whose hot geopolitical takes always stop us in our tracks. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who has the right views on everything.
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