"See how I turn uncertainty into opportunity." Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance In all my years of trading, I can tell you that this is one of the hardest to navigate. Every day could bring fresh all-time highs…or a crash that wipes out weeks of gains. No one would blame you for sitting out until things become clearer. But before you do that, I want to give you an idea of how the right tools and strategy can survive and thrive in this environment. To do that, we're going to dig into one of my favorite trade ideas I shared with Profit Surge Trader members yesterday during the LIVE session. But before we get there, we need to understand what we're dealing with. Current Market Stocks keep pushing to new all-time highs every day or so. However, markets don't believe this is sustainable. At least that's what the S&P 500 Volatility Index (AKA the VIX) says. Known as the 'fear gauge,' the VIX rises when people buy options on the S&P 500, typically puts to protect their stock holdings. The more protection they buy, the higher the VIX goes. Healthy markets hit new all-time highs with little fear, usually a VIX below 14. We haven't been down there since mid-July when markets topped out the first time. This dynamic leads to one of two outcomes: - Markets slowly grind higher as the VIX bleeds lower
- A sudden drop causes panic selling, leading to huge down days
You're caught between betting on small, slow gains higher or a sudden drop that can happen at any time. Now, do you understand why this market is so difficult to trade? Everyone feels caught between two bad options. That's why I created a third way… Go Your Own Way In the past week or so, my A.I. scanner has started to populate a small-cap name that has become one of my favorites: Lovesac (LOVE). This isn't a very well-known company. In fact, it's a small cap that only has monthly option expirations. So, why was this a key trade I highlighted during my Profit Surge Trader LIVE session? To answer that, let's take a look at the 130-minute chart. Let's start at the left and work our way right. LOVE ran into resistance at $29 twice this year, back in June and July, pulling back both times. Naturally, traders who shorted the stock are going to have their stop-loss orders there. All we need is for the stock to break through $29 to trigger them. That's where the next part comes in. LOVE reported earnings that sent the stock from $21 to $27 in 24 hours, creating the upward thrust that defines the first part of my TPS setup, the TREND. Since then, it's moved sideways in a consolidation PATTERN, inching its way closer to $29. As it has worked its way higher, the range has narrowed, creating a SQUEEZE where the Bollinger Bands move inside the Keltner Channel. Here's the question you're probably wondering…why do I think LOVE will break through $29 this time? While I can't know anything for certain, here's my thought process. First, the company reported earnings that the market liked, pushing the stock higher. Second, the more times a stock tests a resistance or support level, the less likely that level is to hold. Now, here's the kicker. I'm fairly certain that short sellers have stop-loss orders at or near $29. But what this chart doesn't tell you is the stock has a short float percentage of 27%. This means that more than one out of every four shares available to trade has been sold short, which is quite a lot. So, if LOVE manages to trip those stop-loss orders, it will likely cause a short squeeze, where one trader buys the stock to close his short position, sending the price a little higher and causing the next trader to do the same, cascading into a powerful tsunami of buying. These short squeeze forces are so powerful that LOVE could rip higher even if the rest of the market is falling apart, making it a great setup for this kind of market. |
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