| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Miles J. Herszenhorn | |  President Joe Biden told reporters in the Oval Office today that “we are closer to a [cease-fire] deal than we have ever been.” | Mark Schiefelbein/AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The Biden administration is pushing full steam ahead on closing a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas, even as Hamas says it won’t accept the “bridging proposal” that mediators unveiled today in Doha. Optimism is running high inside the Biden administration after mediators from Washington, Cairo and Doha offered Israel and Hamas a proposal to address continued disagreements over implementing a cease-fire and the release of hostages. In a joint statement today, the three countries said that they aim “to conclude the deal under the terms put forward today” when they reconvene next week in Cairo. President JOE BIDEN told reporters in the Oval Office today that “we are closer to a deal than we have ever been." And a senior administration official told reporters the proposal “is a comprehensive arrangement. It has been negotiated for months, and we do believe very strongly, and there's momentum here in this process to work to bring this to conclusion.” The official provided the media briefing on condition that they be granted anonymity. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will also travel to the region this weekend, where he will meet with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and other Israeli officials. But Hamas officials, who skipped the talks, told Agence-France Presse, the BBC and other outlets that the framework presented in Doha contains new conditions they cannot accept and argued it does not align with past agreements. That certainly sounds like a reason to be skeptical of the administration’s take. Still, AARON DAVID MILLER, a former U.S. negotiator on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, told NatSec Daily that “nobody expected” a deal or anything remotely close to it coming out of this week’s cease-fire talks in Doha. A bit more time, he added, might even be helpful, as neither side in his view is ready to close on a permanent cease-fire. “They’re making a virtue out of a necessity, which means the talks go on. That'll preempt any Hezbollah, Iranian response in the north. It'll give the Israelis and Hamas additional time to consider whether or not now is the time to close, because I don't think there's an agreement yet,” said Miller, who’s now a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “At best, you're talking about phase one, six weeks, because no one is prepared to go beyond that.” The region is still bracing for greater conflict, including a potential attack from Iran. And Reuters’ ANDREW MILLS and NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI report that Israel ordered civilians today to evacuate areas in Gaza that had previously been considered to be “civilian safe zones,” alleging that Hamas militants were firing rockets from the civilian areas to fire rockets. TRITA PARSI, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, told NatSec Daily that Tehran’s patience will only last so long. If there isn’t “real progress” after a certain point, Iran will make good on its threats of revenge against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH in Tehran. “If it takes too long and it becomes increasingly clear that this is an exercise to hold off attacks and retaliation, rather than actually securing a cease-fire, at that point, there will be pressure from some of Iran's regional partners, as well as from hardline elements inside the regime that simply will prevail and push for some sort of response,” Parsi said.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | VIOLENCE IN THE WEST BANK: Locals said that more than 100 Israeli settlers brutally attacked the Palestinian village of Jit in the West Bank on Thursday night in the most recent example of Israeli settler violence against Palestinians, per Reuters’ ALI SAWAFTA. The settlers killed one local Palestinian citizen and set several homes ablaze, according to Palestinian emergency services and videos shared on social media. Israeli politicians, including Netanyahu and far-right politician BEZALEL SMOTRICH, swiftly condemned the settler attack. VENEZUELAN WHIPLASH: The Venezuelan opposition is not thrilled with conflicting messaging from regional players about new elections in the South American country. Even though the White House walked back Biden’s comments that seemingly supported new elections in Venezuela, calls from Brazil and Colombia for a do-over in Venezuela came as a setback for the opposition, which has categorically rejected calls for another vote. They want Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO to release the precinct-level results of the election and concede defeat. In an interview with MSNBC anchor JOSÉ DÍAZ-BALART today, opposition leader MARÍA CORINA MACHADO said “calling for a second election would mean that he doesn't like that result and he would be asking for a third or a fourth or a fifth.” “It already happened. Popular sovereignty and the will of the people has to be respected,” Machado continued. The tensions between the Venezuelan opposition and some of the region’s more diplomatic players comes as visible frustrations with Caracas are growing. Brazilian President LUIZ INÁCIO LULA DA SILVA said today that the Venezuelan government has an “authoritarian bias,” marking some of the sharpest language to date from the key regional interlocutor. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington’s national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring TAMMY KUPPERMAN THORP, director of public affairs at the CIA. She told our DANIEL LIPPMAN that since she lives in Annapolis, "the summer drink of choice (especially on the water) is the Dark ’n Stormy (dark rum, ginger beer and lime), which I occasionally enjoy on a weekend." Asked if her drink's name reflected the cloak and dagger world she inhabits, she said: “Maybe: don’t read into the name of the drink!”
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily on Miles’ last day! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | WALZ PROBE: House Republicans are homing in on Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ’s ties to China, bringing the 2024 election roaring into the halls of Congress, our own JORDAIN CARNEY reports. House Oversight Committee Chair JAMES COMER (R-Ky.) on Friday announced that he is opening an investigation into Walz’s China-related work, including student trips to China he coordinated with his wife. Comer also sent a letter to FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY requesting a swath of documents and any correspondence with Walz related to China. “The American people deserve to fully understand how deep Governor Walz’s relationship with China goes,” Comer said in a statement. The move to single out Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ running mate comes as Republicans have stepped up their attacks on Walz, who taught in China in 1989 as part of a Harvard educational fellowship and made multiple trips to the country as an adult. Republicans have accused Walz, who served on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China as a member of Congress and earned praise from pro-Hong Kong activists and critics of the Chinese government for his legislative work on human rights in the country, of being too conciliatory to Beijing, and in some cases have insinuated he would advance Chinese interests if elected vice president. TEDDY TSCHANN, a spokesperson for Walz, said “Republicans are twisting basic facts and desperately lying to distract from the Trump-Vance agenda.” ISRAEL IN AN ELECTION YEAR: The U.S. approach to Israel and the war in Gaza continues to be a tense election issue. And pro-Israel groups have a campaign plan. The Guardian’s JOAN E. GREVE, CHRIS MCGREAL and WILL CRAFT report that pro-Israel groups are acting strategically, staying out of unwinnable races and focusing resources on races with vulnerable incumbents. They’re also avoiding direct messaging on the war in Gaza. In primaries against Reps. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.) and JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.), pro-Israel groups ran ads criticizing their votes on the bipartisan infrastructure bill and debt ceiling increase in order to paint them as out-of-touch and divisive figures within the Democratic party. And some groups are making the public case that Democratic candidates with pro-Israel views poll significantly better than candidates who oppose a strong relationship between the U.S. and Israel. According to a poll commissioned by Democratic Majority for Israel and obtained by Daniel, 62 percent of voters have a favorable view of Israel as opposed to just 24 percent who reported an unfavorable view. Those margins also increased in battleground states, where 67 percent reported a favorable view of Israel to 17 percent who expressed an unfavorable view. The poll was conducted by the Mellman Group from Aug. 6 to 12 and polled 1,000 U.S. voters. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. (MARK MELLMAN, the founder of the Mellman Group, is also one of the founders of the Democratic Majority for Israel.) The new polling data comes as Democrats are at odds with how to message around Israel in the wake of its war with Hamas, as parts of the party's left wing are still threatening to withhold support for Harris if she voices too much support for Israel. And the question of how Democrats should talk about Israel is expected to play heavily at next week’s Democratic National Convention, where pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian groups will hold dueling events (and protests) on the sidelines of the party gathering and likely make the strategic cases for and against greater support for Israel.
| | | BELGIAN SEMICONDUCTORS WAFFLE: A Belgian-based semiconductor manufacturing facility went belly up this week, illuminating the challenges that Europe faces as it tries to promote the tech industry but reduce the influence of China in the sector. As our own PIETOR HAECK reports, BelGaN, a manufacturer in Belgium, filed for bankruptcy after heavy losses, questionable bets on new, capital-intensive technology for growth and ongoing concerns about its Chinese owners, after two Hong Kong-based funds acquired the factory in 2021. As Pietor writes, “BelGaN’s case shows how the EU’s goals can end up contradicting each other. In 2023, the EU adopted a €43 billion microchips plan that seeks to quadruple the region’s footprint in the global chip market to 20 percent by 2030. It wants to drastically reduce its reliance on major production hubs in Taiwan, the United States, South Korea and China. But the European Commission also considers microchips a critical technology, and EU countries are ramping up their scrutiny over foreign — especially Chinese — control over the technology.”
| | | |   | | | | | OH, CANADA: Officials in Ottawa said there are no geographic restrictions on where the Ukrainian military can use the equipment it has received from Canada, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. “Ukrainians know best how to defend their homeland, and we’re committed to supporting their capacity,” said ANDRÉE-ANNE POULIN, a spokesperson for the Canadian defense department. “Canada steadfastly supports Ukraine’s right to defend itself against Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable war — and that is why we have committed over $4 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.” The Canadian clarification will likely only fuel Ukrainian consternation that the U.S., U.K. and France have maintained geographic restrictions on the use of weapons they’ve provided Kyiv. Canada has provided Ukraine with M-777 Howitzers, Leopard tanks, Senator commercial pattern armored vehicles and rocket launchers. Ottawa also gave the Ukrainian military air defense equipment, including air defense missiles and 40,000 rounds of ammunition delivered in 2023.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CALLS FOR UKRAINE STRATEGY: A group of former national security and military officials is urging Biden and the White House to publish a Ukraine strategy that clearly defines what a victory for Kyiv looks like. The Ukraine supplemental required the White House to provide Congress with a Ukraine strategy by June, but the White House failed to do so. The signatories say that the administration needs to change that immediately and issue a clear plan. They also call on Biden to remove restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to use U.S.-made weapons against Russian targets. “No conflict can be won without a strategy, and the current U.S. objectives — avoid direct war with Russia, bring about an undefined strategic defeat for the Kremlin, and maintain alliances and cohesion — are insufficient,” they write. “Following the directive of Congress and releasing a strategy for victory as soon as possible is imperative.” The letter, obtained first by NatSec Daily, was signed by former Supreme Allied Commander Gen. PHILIP BREEDLOVE, former deputy assistant secretary of Defense IAN BRZEZINSKI, retired Lt. Gen. BEN HODGES, former Rep. TOM MALINOWSKI, former NATO Deputy Secretary-General ALEXANDER VERSHBOW and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine MARIE YOVANOVITCH.
| | AFGHAN VISA BLAME GAME: Three years after Taliban fighters seized the Afghan capital of Kabul, an advocate for resettlement programs for Afghans who worked with or alongside the U.S. government and their families is blaming Congress for an impasse in passing longer-term legislation to improve existing visa programs. Congress has taken some actions to increase the number of special visas available. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES and Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), along with the White House, reached a deal with House Republicans to increase the number of special visas available to Afghan allies by 12,000. On the Senate side, an amendment introduced by Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) that would increase the visas by 20,000 and extend the program into 2027 successfully made its way into this year’s State and Foreign Operations appropriations bill. But Congress has yet to take up bills that would clarify the legal pathways available to Afghan refugees. Several bipartisan bills are waiting for votes in the House and Senate. SHAWN VANDIVER, who leads the nonprofit AfghanEvac that helps “Afghan allies” resettle in the United States, pointed the finger at congressional leadership. He said Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and Jeffries “have not prioritized that. They have not forced votes.” “If those were on the floor, if they were put up for a vote, they would pass,” VanDiver argued. Congressional leaders on both sides say the other party is to blame. A McConnell spokesperson told NatSec Daily “the blame for the situation in Afghanistan lies entirely with two people: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.” An aide to Senate Democratic leadership, meanwhile, told NatSec Daily that “Democrats have been trying to get it into every must pass piece of legislation for the past two years and unfortunately, Republicans have blocked it every time.” HEATED IN TURKEY: A large brawl broke out in Turkish parliament today after an opposition lawmaker labeled members of the ruling party as “terrorists” during a speech criticizing the jailing of a fellow opposition MP, according to Reuters. More than 20 people were involved in the brawl, which started with a fistfight behind the speaker’s podium in the parliament. Blood was visible on the white floor near the podium shortly after the bawl ended.
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | — MILES J. HERSZENHORN's internship with the POLITICO NatSec squad has come to an end. After helping us man the NatSec Daily fort and write some great stories on Ukraine and U.S. policy toward Europe, he’ll be returning to Cambridge, Massachusetts, for his final year at Harvard. Best of luck to you, Miles! — PAETONGTARN SHINAWATRA will serve as Thailand’s next prime minister, becoming the youngest person ever to lead the country. Shinawatra is the youngest daughter of former Prime Minister THAKSIN SHINAWATRA, who was ousted in a coup in 2006 and recently returned from exile.
| | — RISHI IYENGAR, Foreign Policy: The Technocrat — DARA MASSICOT, War on the Rocks: Russia’s post-war military recruiting strategy emerges — WOLFRAM LACHER, New Lines Magazine: Libya’s Struggles Empower a Clan
| | — Progressives for Palestine, 2 p.m.: Heeding the voices for justice: A convention to build power — Jewish Democratic Council of America, 3 p.m.: Harris and Trump: What this election means for Israel Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose proposals for this newsletter never align with past agreements. Thanks to our producer, Emily Lussier, who is a deft mediator.
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