| | | | |  | | By Sam Sutton | Presented by Wells Fargo | Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.
| | It turns out, the best way to convince voters that “Bidenomics” will work is to remove “Biden” from the equation. Voters now give Vice President Kamala Harris a slight edge over former President Donald Trump when it comes to the economy, according to a new poll from The FT and the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. It’s the narrowest of leads — 42 percent to 41 percent, well within the margin of error — but it could represent a shift in voter preferences since President Joe Biden stepped down from the top of the Democratic ticket last month. Poll after poll after poll showed that the public overwhelmingly favored Trump over Biden when it came to the economy. Harris may have overcome what has been one of Trump’s biggest advantages over the Democratic ticket. And she’s done it by not being Joe Biden. “People's perceptions of the economy — and most issues — are heavily influenced and colored by the political prism they're looking through. When that prism changes, which it did when Biden withdrew and Harris took the mantle, people’s perceptions change,” said Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, whose work is often cited by the White House. It’s not as though the economy suddenly took off when the Democratic Party coalesced around Harris (if anything, there are clear signs that it’s slowing down). The vice president has not revealed any new, sweeping economic policy agenda that’s materially different from what Biden’s team had put together. Her stump speech is more forward-looking than what the president had on offer, but her policy priorities — largely affordability issues like paid leave, eliminating junk fees and limiting rent increases — were also in Biden’s playbook. “It's not even about the policy. It's not even the messaging, right? Because she hasn't really had a chance to even talk about the economy in any substantive, meaningful way,” Zandi said.
| | | | A message from Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo seeks broad impact in our communities. As a company, we are focused on building a sustainable, inclusive future for all by supporting housing affordability, small business growth and financial health. We have donated nearly $2 billion to strengthen local communities over the last five years. What we say, we do. See how. | | | | That may change soon. The vice president will join Biden in Maryland on Thursday for a joint event on the “progress they are making to lower costs for the American people,” according to the White House. With Harris rising in the polls, Democrats now have an opportunity to reverse the public’s dismal views on how their party has performed on economic matters. Biden struggled to sway voters on that “progress” even when unemployment was near historic lows, real wage growth was accelerating and inflation was in retreat. None of that mattered so long as consumers were contending with higher grocery bills and rocketing borrowing costs, which Trump and top Republicans dubbed “Bidenflation.” That portmanteau did not include Harris. Setting aside last week’s so-called “Kamala Crash” news cycle — markets have already recovered — she hasn’t been saddled with that baggage. Even in polls where Trump leads Harris on the economy — including the latest New York Times/Siena College survey of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the gap has shrunk. That has put pressure on Trump to beat back Harris’s momentum. The former president will get ahead of Biden and Harris’s Maryland event with a speech “on the economic hardships” created by their administration on Wednesday in Asheville, N.C. “Prices are excruciatingly high, and the cost of living has soared — leaving those on a fixed-income, unsure of how they are going to afford a basic standard of living in the future,” Trump’s campaign said in a statement on Saturday. That type of message worked wonders against Biden. Time will tell if it will work against Harris. IT’S MONDAY— Are you working on Harris’s Maryland speech? I’d really like to hear from you. And as always, email Sam at ssutton@politico.com.
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | Monday … Treasury will release its monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government at 2 p.m. Tuesday … The National Federation of Independent Business optimism index for July will be released at 6 a.m. … The Producer Price Index for July will be released at 8:30 a.m. … Wednesday … The Consumer Price Index for July will be released at 8:30 a.m. .. Thursday …Weekly jobless claims data will be released at 8:30 a.m. … U.S. retail sales data for July will be released at 8:30 a.m. … The import price index for July will be released at 8:30 a.m. … Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at 1:10 p.m. … Friday … Housing starts and building permit data for July will be released at 8:30 a.m. … The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey will be released at 10 a.m. … Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat at the Angeles Investors' Q3 Summit and Awards at 1:25 p.m. What Jerome Powell is reading — Harris commented on Trump’s contention that presidents should be able to weigh in on Federal Reserve rate decisions: “The Fed is an independent entity, and as president, I would never interfere in the decisions that the Fed makes,” she said. (h/t The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos). — Reuters: “Republican U.S. vice presidential candidate JD Vance on Sunday said he supports Trump's call for having a say in Fed policy-making decisions, “saying those should be ‘political’ decisions.” — FWIW, Harris advisers and top Democratic donors have told MM that the vice president’s projection of stability vis a vis Trump has been central to her pitch to the corporate world. Trump’s decision to make the Fed’s independence a campaign issue could feed into that pitch in the coming weeks. What Harris is reading — Ben Schreckinger digs into the career of Harris’s niece, Meena Harris, who has built a formidable business empire that includes a venture capital fund and a production company. What Trump is reading — Declan Harty reports that Trump's social media startup notched a $16 million second-quarter loss as legal costs hit its bottom line and revenue slid. Send tips? — One area where Trump and Harris agree? The U.S. shouldn’t tax tips. Harris backed Trump’s call to eliminate taxes on tipped income during a speech at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas on Saturday, according to Axios’s Sophia Cai. Trump responded by accusing the vice president of plagiarism. Must read — Katy O’Donnell’s latest is a deep dive on how the White House and top Republicans may find common ground on how federal land sales could alleviate housing supply shortages. “Imagine having a county where over 90 percent of the land can’t have housing despite many acres being appropriate for development, all because it’s federally managed,” said Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah).
| | | | A message from Wells Fargo:   | | | | | Too soon? — Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that she still sees “some upside risks to inflation.” While the labor market has softened, and economic activity has moderated, “we need to be patient and avoid undermining continued progress on lowering inflation by overreacting to any single data point,” she said in a speech at a Kansas Bankers Association event in Colorado Springs, Colo. — Markets have priced in rate cuts. But Apollo Global Management’s Torsten Slok over the weekend said the economy is much stronger than many assume. “Fed pricing is wrong,” he warned. “The market is making the same mistake it made at the beginning of the year.” Watching the clock — Hiring for hourly employment has started to dry up, The WSJ’s Chip Cutter and Lauren Weber report. “It’s, dare to say, feeling normal,” said Thomas Houdek, CFO of the casual-dining chain BJ’s Restaurants.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | Gensler at Senate Banking — SEC Chair Gary Gensler is slated to testify before the Senate Banking Committee during the last week of September, Eleanor Mueller reports. Are the forms on the blockchain? — The IRS on Friday released a revised draft of the tax form that cryptocurrency brokers will have to use to comply with new tax-reporting requirements, according to Brian Faler. Fiduciary Duty — The Washington Post’s Tony Romm reports on how the insurance industry moved to block Biden administration rules that would have required retirement advisers act as fiduciaries.
| | | | A message from Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo seeks broad impact in our communities. As a company, we are focused on building a sustainable, inclusive future for all by supporting housing affordability, small business growth and financial health.
In 2023, examples of our work include:
· Donated approximately $300 million to over 3,000 nonprofits in support of housing, small business, financial health, sustainability, and other community needs.
· Opened HOPE Inside centers in 15 markets supporting 57 retail branches to help empower community members to achieve their financial goals through financial education and free one-on-one coaching.
· Launched $10,000 Homebuyer Access℠ grants that will be applied toward the down payment for eligible homebuyers who currently live in or are purchasing homes in certain underserved communities.
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