🎢 Axios PM: Recession roller coaster

Plus: Unfocused Trump angers allies | Friday, August 16, 2024

Open in app View in browser   Presented By West Monroe   Axios PM By Mike Allen · Aug 16, 2024 Good afternoon, and happy Friday! Today's newsletter, edited by Sam Baker, is 460 words, a 2-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.     1 big thing: The on-again, off-again recession   Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   Economists have been on a roller coaster in recent years: A recession looks likely … a recession looks unlikely … the recession is back on … the recession is back off … the recession is imminent ... the recession is far off. Why it matters: As of this moment, the recession is off again. But the constant cycle of conflicting data and changing predictions has made it hard to trust that any forecast will stick, Axios' Courtenay Brown and Sam Baker write. ↕️ Conflicting economic data is fueling these sharp swings in sentiment. 👎 The bad news: Consumers are falling further behind on credit card payments, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July — which tripped a reliable indicator that suggested high risk of a recession. 👍 The good news: Consumer spending surged in July, inflation looks like it's over (really this time), and an early forecast from the Atlanta Fed shows the economy likely grew at a solid 2% rate in the third quarter. 🧠 Reality check: Bumpy, conflicting economic data can signal a turning point in the economy. That looks to be exactly what's underway now. Go deeper.     2. 😡 GOP bemoans Trump's lack of focus   Former President Trump during a news conference at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, N.J., yesterday. Photo: Bing Guan/Bloomberg via Getty Images Former President Trump's apparent inability to stay on message is grating on some of his Republican allies on Capitol Hill, Axios' Andrew Solender and Juliegrace Brufke report. What they're saying: "If he doesn't have message discipline, and he doesn't focus on the sh*t we need to be focused on right now," Trump's bad days are "not going to pass," one GOP lawmaker told Axios. 🗳️ Republican lawmakers fear that an unfocused campaign could doom their chances of controlling Congress — a concern Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the leader of the House GOP's campaign arm, voiced during a call with colleagues yesterday. He also implored GOP candidates to step up their fundraising to stay competitive with newly energized Democrats.     A message from West Monroe The synthetic data industry will hit $1.15B by 2027     The rise of synthetic data — data that mimics real-world scenarios — is one of West Monroe's five Tech Trends to Watch. Here's why: 28% of data scientists cite data access issues for failed AI. $4.5M is the average cost of a breach. And more. Learn more about the trends.     3. Catch me up   Vice President Harris speaks today in Raleigh, N.C. Photo: Grant Baldwin/Getty Images 🎤 Vice President Harris detailed her economic agenda today during a speech in North Carolina. She's proposed a larger child tax credit, subsidies for first-time homebuyers and harsher penalties for price gouging on certain products. NYT gift link. 📖 Former President Trump was paid $300,000 to endorse "The Greenwood Bible," The New York Times reports. The Bible sells for $60 and advertises itself as "the only Bible endorsed by President Trump!" 💻 Iran has attempted to hack both the Harris and Trump campaigns, making it the biggest cyberthreat to the 2024 elections. Go deeper.     4. 🎈Chicago gets ready   Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images Above: Volunteers maneuver the large bags of balloons that will fall from the ceiling of the United Center next week at the Democratic convention. Go deeper: How Chicago is preparing to handle protests     A message from West Monroe 🤖 It's not just AI: 5 tech trends defining the future     Yes, generative AI is still making headlines. But that's not the only trend shaping the future of business. Here's what else: The resurgence of cloud and infrastructure, the potential of synthetic data, and other under-the-radar trends are also making waves. Learn more in a new report.   Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Advertise with us. Axios, PO Box 101060, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: