| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  If President Joe Biden secures a deal that would see a $50 billion loan sent to Ukraine from frozen Russian assets, it would further serve as proof that his strategy of building a worldwide alliance can lead to concrete and effective actions. | Evan Vucci/AP | With help from Miles Herszenhorn, Phelim Kine, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric This week is President JOE BIDEN’s last chance while traveling abroad to solidify alliances and make deals to turn the tide in Ukraine’s war before the November presidential election. And he’s making the case to American voters: This is what a second Biden administration can do — and what DONALD TRUMP can’t. At the G7 summit in Italy that kicks off on Thursday, the leaders of the world’s largest Western economies are set to finally hash out a debate that’s been raging for two years: How to deal with $300 billion in frozen assets that Russia left in Western financial institutions after it invaded Ukraine. The allies seem close to a compromise that would see a $50 billion loan landing in Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s pocket to help rebuild the country’s infrastructure, which would be paid back using interest earned on the frozen assets. “A successful agreement here would reinforce President Biden's argument that he, rather than Donald Trump, knows how to be a global leader and rally U.S. allies around key U.S. security interests,” BRAD SETSER, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative, told NatSec Daily. Adding to pressure on Biden — and general awkwardness this week — is that Europe is bracing for a second Trump administration. The former president, who is still polling well despite being found guilty on felony charges, is expected to curb American support for Ukraine if he takes office again. So, the White House is laying the groundwork for a week of wins. The U.S. and Ukraine are expected to sign a long-term security pact on Thursday, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told reporters today. Treasury also rolled out a fresh round of sanctions targeting Russia today. And Commerce today announced that it’s widening its use of export controls against entities that help Russia survive economically during its war. If Biden secures the assets deal, it would further serve as proof that his strategy of building a worldwide alliance can lead to concrete and effective actions. But there are doubts that Europe is fully on board. EU governments worry that the deal would mean their countries are on the hook to pay back the loan if anything goes wrong, European diplomats told our pals across the Atlantic. That could happen while the U.S. benefits most from contracts that would flow from Ukraine's reconstruction, the diplomats added. The Biden administration is pushing back: The assets deal isn’t designed to help U.S. firms, said an American official, granted anonymity to discuss the deal’s specifics. Also, the Biden administration isn’t advocating for a loan structure that requires the EU to bear the residual burden of the loan, the official told NatSec Daily. Instead, the U.S. advocates for allocating any risk of non-repayment equitably among partners. The White House is confident that a deal will come together by the end of the week: “New steps” to unlock the value of Russian assets to help Ukraine will soon be announced, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters on Tuesday. The G7 countries are still negotiating the details of the financial mechanism, but they agree on all the core points of the deal, Setser said. “The details matter, but at the end of the day I expect the G7 countries to find a path to agreement, with some loose ends to be wrapped up by the finance ministers,” he added. “It is hard to see how there isn't a deal.” Read: EU election results loom over Ukraine aid discussions by our own LARA SELIGMAN
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Learn more. | | | | | BLINKEN SLAMS HAMAS: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN bashed the Hamas militant group today for not immediately agreeing to the three-phase cease-fire proposal with Israel, citing numerous changes the group requested. “Hamas could have answered with a single word: Yes,” Blinken told reporters in Qatar. “Instead, Hamas waited nearly two weeks and then proposed more changes, a number of which go beyond positions that it had previously taken and accepted.” Speaking alongside Blinken, Qatari Prime Minister MOHAMMED BIN ABDULRAHMAN BIN JASSIM AL THANI said, “We have seen the behavior from both parties on different occasions [be] counterproductive to the efforts.” “Many of the proposed changes are minor and not unanticipated,” Sullivan also told reporters today. “Others differ more substantively from what was outlined in the U.N. Security Council resolution” supporting that deal on Monday. The U.S. will work with Egypt and Qatar to bridge the gaps remaining in the deal, Sullivan added. UKRAINE’S SUCCESSFUL SHOOTDOWN: Ukraine used antiaircraft missiles recently replenished by the U.S. to down 29 of 30 missiles and exploding drones fired at the country by Russia early this morning, The New York Times’ ANDREW KRAMER reports. “It was one of the better rates of interception by Ukraine so far during the war and underscored the impact of having fresh supplies of Western weaponry to bolster a war effort that had struggled mightily in recent months,” the Times writes. The U.S. recently approved the delivery of another Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine from Poland, senior administration officials told The NYT, following months-long pleas from Ukrainian officials for more air defenses from allies. ISIS ANXIETY IN AMERICA: Several recent stories and comments from lawmakers are raising the question: Is the Islamic State a threat in the United States? Eight Tajik nationals with possible ties to the Islamist militant group were arrested in the United States on immigration violations, according to the Associated Press’ ERIC TUCKER and REBECCA SANTANA. Two people familiar with the case, granted anonymity to discuss an ongoing proceeding, told NatSec Daily that there was no “derogatory information” about the eight when they entered the United States. They added there is no current evidence that the eight individuals were engaged in an Islamic State plot against the United States. On Capitol Hill, prominent Republicans have sounded the alarm about the jihadist group’s potency. Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, hit the airwaves to warn that members of the militant group could be entering the U.S. via the southern border with Mexico. Meanwhile, Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) told NBC News’ SAHIL KAPUR on Tuesday that “I’m more worried about ISIS killing us all,” when asked if he had listened to audio tapes of Supreme Court Justice SAMUEL ALITO. Loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember that the Biden administration has still been monitoring the jihadist group in Syria and Iraq, arguing that the group, while reduced, remains a threat to regional stability. PUTIN’S CARIBBEAN CRUISE: Russian frigates and vessels sailed down to Cuba today, and the U.S. military is keeping a close eye on them as they pass near American waters, according to CNN. The military deployed several ships and air assets, including a P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance plane, to circle the Russian vessels on their way to the port of Havana, and ships will monitor their drills in the Caribbean, military officials told CNN. Canada also provided some military resources to track the flotilla, which cruised down to Havana for a five-day visit. A Russian nuclear submarine is among the vessels that will stop in Cuba and Venezuela this month. AFGANEVAC ANNIV: Today marks one year since AfghanEvac, a nonprofit helping Afghan allies relocate to the United States, and SecState Blinken signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on resettling Afghans. In the past year, the partnership has led to faster processing times for Special Immigrant Visas and U.S. Refugee Admissions Program referrals, SHAWN VANDIVER, the group’s president, told NatSec Daily. It has also allowed for a better flow of information between travelers and the government about updates on application statuses and resettlement efforts, and the creation of support systems such as legal aid, mental health services and cultural acclimation programs. About 140,000 have resettled to the U.S. through the partnership between State and AfghanEvac, which began in September 2021, immediately following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, VanDiver said. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | AI MEETS ITALY: The G7 summit will include discussions on cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, and result in at least one commitment on the security of energy infrastructure, according to top Biden administration officials, as our own MAGGIE MILLER and JOSEPH GEDEON report (for Pros!). The focus on cybersecurity and AI come as cyberattacks linked to Russia and China have become an increasing worry for the U.S. and its allies, and as global governments seek to set standards to govern the creation and use of AI technologies.
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/13 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE: As Congress and the White House work to strengthen health care affordability and access, innovative technologies and treatments are increasingly important for patient health and lower costs. What barriers are appearing as new tech emerges? Is the Medicare payment process keeping up with new technologies and procedures? Join us on June 13 as POLITICO convenes a panel of lawmakers, officials and experts to discuss what policy solutions could expand access to innovative therapies and tech. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | NOT HUNGARY FOR UKRAINE AID: Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN reached a deal with NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG to allow the alliance to increase its efforts in supporting Ukraine without Budapest’s participation, our own STUART LAU reports. As part of Hungary’s non-participation agreement, no Hungarian personnel or funds will be used as part of NATO’s efforts to train and support Ukraine. “At the same time, the prime minister has assured me that Hungary will not oppose these efforts, enabling other allies to move forward,” Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Budapest with Orbán. EUROS FOR UKRAINE: European banks will provide more than $650 million euros to support Ukraine’s economy and the reconstruction of the country, according to agreements reached at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. More than $540 million will come from the European Union through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Another $108 million will be provided by the Council of Europe Development Bank to rebuild housing destroyed by the war. THANK YOU FOR SERVING: A member of the Korean pop sensation BTS finished his term of compulsory military service today, heralding a resumption of the boy band’s tours and recording activities, according to The Washington Post’s ADELA SULIMAN and JINTAK HAN.
| | | |   | | | | | NDAA PROGRESS? Major defense policy legislation cleared its first hurdle in the full House today — barely — as Republicans look to tack on a mix of conservative policy measures, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!). Republicans coalesced around a package of hundreds of amendments to the annual National Defense Authorization Act that, if adopted, will turn what had been a bipartisan bill into a largely partisan measure. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — STATE NEGOTIATES: Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.) and Sen. JEFF MERKLEY (D-Ore.) introduced a bicameral bill today that would permanently establish a team of peace process, reconciliation and negotiation experts who support U.S. diplomats in the State Department. In 2021, State launched the Negotiations Support Unit to assist diplomats in dozens of countries, including Ethiopia, Yemen, Sudan, Georgia and Venezuela. The Support for Peace Act would solidify the NSU’s position within State, allowing it to advise the secretary of State and other officials on negotiations, as well as expand its work of advising and training diplomats on other peace processes. It would authorize $5 million for the unit’s establishment. The bill “strengthens the State Department’s ability to advise on peace processes and conflict negotiations worldwide while building institutional memory,” Merkley said in a statement. AMERICAN HELD IN AFGHANISTAN: The plight of GEORGE GLEZMANN, a 65-year-old American being held by the Taliban, is expected to be discussed at a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing on Thursday, his family’s attorney told NatSec Daily. Atlanta resident Glezmann, a longtime world traveler, was detained in December 2022 after visiting Afghanistan as a tourist, legal counsel DENNIS FITZPATRICK said. He was deemed wrongfully detained by the U.S. in September. The U.S. has advised Americans against traveling to the country in recent years. Last week, 10 Georgia representatives wrote a letter to Biden urging the administration to “continue and increase your efforts to secure his release.” The urgency to secure his release ramped up after Glezmann was diagnosed with a benign tumor outside his left eye socket, which has been growing since his detention, they wrote. His condition is deteriorating, causing him significant pain and vision impairment in his eye.
| | | WAR CRIMES ALLEGATIONS: A U.N. commission accused Hamas and Israel of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity, adding to the international scrutiny both sides of the conflict are facing, Reuters’ DAPHNE PSALEDAKIS, EMMA FARGE and NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI report. The U.N. Commission of Inquiry said in a series of parallel reports that Hamas’ actions on Oct. 7 and in other early stages of the war in the Gaza Strip constituted war crimes. The U.N. body also found that Israel’s conduct of the war rose to the level of crimes against humanity, citing the large numbers of civilian casualties. Israel, which did not cooperate in the investigation, rejected the findings as evidence of anti-Israel bias. CAMPBELL: BEIJING WANTS GROWTH, NOT WAR: Beijing’s efforts to revive its faltering economy are distracting it from picking fights with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL said at a Stimson Center event today. Despite the drumbeat of aggressive incursions by China Coast Guard units into Philippine waters of the South China Sea, Beijing’s “primary focus is on its economy and seeking to reassure investors and others that they have a plan for the way ahead,” Campbell said, as our own PHELIM KINE writes in. That’s making the Chinese government averse to “undue areas of friction and tension that can escalate in ways that are unpredictable and dangerous,” Campbell added. HEZBOLLAH’S REVENGE: The militant group Hezbollah vowed further retribution on Israel after an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday took out one of its senior commanders, The Washington Post reports. The Lebanon-based Iranian proxy fired rockets and artillery shells at northern Israel this morning, in an attack the Israel Defense Forces said contained two waves of projectiles. Read: Armenia to quit Russia’s military alliance amid split with Putin by our own GABRIEL GAVIN
| | — ABRAHAM DENMARK, senior adviser for AUKUS at the Defense Department, is leaving the Pentagon, DOD spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters. — MARTIN MEINERS, a public affairs officer at the Pentagon, is leaving his post this week, per an email circulated to colleagues obtained by our own DANIEL LIPPMAN. He will be the division PAO at the 101st Airborne Division in Fort Campbell, Kentucky. — Rep. KWEISI MFUME (D-Md.) was appointed to the House Foreign Affairs Committee today. — JAMES HARRIS III, the special agent in charge of Homeland Security Investigations in Maryland, will serve as the next director of the DHS’ Center for Countering Human Trafficking.
| | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Why so many ‘day after’ plans for Gaza amount to no plan at all — NANCY YOUSSEF, The Wall Street Journal: How ambitious plans for a floating aid pier off Gaza fell apart — Editorial board, The Boston Globe: U.S. dithering over aid, policy, pilots for Ukraine costs lives
| | — Potomac Officers Club, 8 a.m.: 2024 Army Summit — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: The role Australia and South Korea could play in the G7 — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 9:30 a.m.: China's stockpiling and mobilization measures for competition and conflict — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on several ambassadorial nominations — Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 10 a.m.: Liberia: Next steps toward accountability for war & economic crimes — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: The plight of Americans detained abroad — Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Biden's latest peace plan for Gaza: Impediments and prospects — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 11:30 a.m.: Middle East update: Mid-Year 2024 — Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Tackling the Uyghur forced labor challenge — New America, 12 p.m.: Discussion on STUART EIZENSTAT’s “The Art of Diplomacy: How American Negotiators Reached Historic Agreements that Changed the World.” — House Homeland Security Committee, 1:15 p.m.: A cascade of security failures: Assessing Microsoft Corporation's cybersecurity shortfalls and the implications for homeland security — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 3 p.m.: Silenced dissent: the plight of political prisoners and search for accountability — Vandenberg Coalition, 3:30 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on "Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power" — National Endowment for Democracy, 6 p.m.: 2024 Democracy Awards — Heritage Foundation, 6:30 p.m.: “Inaugural Lee Edwards Lecture in Conservative Leadership” on "How Reagan Won the Cold War" Thanks to our editor, Grace Maalouf, whose assets should also be seized to help Ukraine. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who could rebuild the country with his bare hands.
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