| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
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The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House is roiling D.C. as Election Day approaches. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | We are officially six months out from Election Day 2024. And many Americans do not like the options before them. Term of the day: “Double-haters.” That’s how ABC News refers to the large number of voters who like neither JOE BIDEN nor DONALD TRUMP. A new ABC News/Ipsos poll out this morning shows 81% of voters think that Biden is too old for another term, while 55% feel the same way about Trump. Biden’s approval rating is 35%. Trump’s personal favorability is 33%. Two head-to-head numbers:
- Among all adults, Trump leads Biden, 46% to 44%.
- But among likely voters, Biden leads Trump, 49% to 45%.
One question we have: Given that Democrats have performed well in relatively low-turnout elections ever since Trump’s arrival in national politics — midterms, specials, etc. — is it possible that a Trump-Biden general election that many Americans are unenthusiastic about will recreate that same low-turnout dynamic, resulting in yet another cycle of Democratic overperformance? That possibility is doing little to soothe nerves in D.C. NYT’s Peter Baker reports that among the well-heeled, the topic du jour at Washington dinner parties is about the possibility of a Trump victory in November: “Where would you go if it really happens?” Writes Baker: “They’re joking. Sort of. At least in most cases. It’s a gallows humor with a dark edge. … The ‘what if’ goes beyond the normal prospect of a side unhappy about a lost election. It speaks to the nervousness about a would-be president who talks of being a dictator for a day, who vows to “root out” enemies he called ‘vermin,’ who threatens to prosecute adversaries, who suggests a general he deems disloyal deserves ‘DEATH,’ whose lawyers say he may have immunity even if he orders the assassination of political rivals.” Former Rep. STEPHANIE MURPHY (D-Fla.), who served on the House Jan. 6 committee: “The rest of America may not take what he says seriously, but I think you’re hearing the uncomfortable chatter in Washington among Democrats and Republicans because they understand having worked with him in the past that when he says something he means it.” (Murphy, by the way, says she would relocate to Portugal.) Washingtonians frightened by the prospect of Trump’s return likely didn’t hear much at the RNC Spring Meeting this weekend that would make them feel any better. Yesterday, Trump “delivered a frustrated and often obscene speech, lasting roughly 75 minutes, at a Republican National Committee donor retreat,” NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher report, “attacking one of the prosecutors pursuing him and comparing President Biden’s administration to the Nazis.” “‘These people are running a Gestapo administration,’ Mr. Trump told donors who attended the event at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, Fla., according to an audio recording obtained by The New York Times. ‘And it’s the only thing they have. And it’s the only way they’re going to win, in their opinion, and it’s actually killing them. But it doesn’t bother me.’” Expanding the map: Pollster TONY FABRIZIO and senior Trump campaign hands SUSIE WILES and CHRIS LaCIVITA told the donors gathered that they “believe they can flip Democratic strongholds Minnesota and Virginia,” NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Matt Dixon, Olympia Sonnier, Dasha Burns and Abigail Brooks report. Veepstakes:
- Yesterday, South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM, complained about being hounded by the press in recent days, “cast[ing] herself as the victim of a liberal- and media-run smear campaign,” Alex Isenstadt reports. “[T]hey’re just attacking me like crazy right now,” Noem said of the furor surrounding the bizarre story in her memoir in which she admits to deliberately shooting and killing her family’s young untrained dog.
- Sens. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) in remarks to GOP donors on Friday “downplayed the role that race would play” in Trump’s selection of a running mate, USA Today’s Zac Anderson reports. This morning on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Scott weighed in on the timeline for the selection process: “I certainly expect to have a decision from President Trump in the next 60 days or so, but he did not bring it up.”
- At the retreat, Trump himself praised Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) onstage for her challenging then-Harvard President CLAUDINE GAY over antisemitism on campus, per NBC News. “You destroyed her,” Trump said. “She did so well, everyone said … she’s going to be the vice presidential candidate.”
Related read: “Trump campaign says it raised more than $76M in April,” by Alex Isenstadt Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from the Small Business Payments Alliance: SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS KNOW DURBIN-MARSHALL IS A GIVEAWAY TO MEGA STORES: According to a new survey, a majority of small business owners (64%) believe the Credit Card Competition Act's benefits mega-retailers more than small businesses. Don't let Durbin-Marshall reward mega retailers at the expense of Main Street businesses. Read full survey here. | | | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “U.S. put a hold on an ammunition shipment to Israel,” by Axios’ Barak Ravid: “The Biden administration last week put a hold on a shipment of U.S.-made ammunition to Israel, two Israeli officials told Axios. … It is the first time since the Oct. 7 attack that the U.S. has stopped a weapons shipment intended for the Israeli military. The incident raised serious concerns inside the Israeli government and sent officials scrambling to understand why the shipment was held, Israeli officials said.” Separately, the Israeli war cabinet voted unanimously to immediately close “local offices of Qatar-owned broadcaster Al Jazeera, escalating Israel’s long-running feud with the channel at a time when cease-fire negotiations with Hamas — mediated by Qatar — are gaining steam,”the AP reports this morning. “Al Jazeera is one of the few international media outlets to remain in Gaza throughout the war, broadcasting bloody scenes of airstrikes and overcrowded hospitals and accusing Israel of massacres. Israel accuses Al Jazeera of collaborating with Hamas.” In a statement, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU called the news outlet a “Hamas mouthpiece,” and accused its of “harm[ing] Israel’s security and incit[ing] against soldiers.” SUNDAY BEST … — South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem on the part of her forthcoming book where she says she met with North Korea’s KIM JONG UN, on CBS’ “Face the Nation”: “As soon as it was brought to my attention, we went forward and have made some edits. So I’m glad that this book is being released in a couple days and that those edits will be in place.” CBS’ Margaret Brennan: “So you’re not taking responsibility for the mistakes in this book?” Noem: “I’m saying that this book is very, very good. And I’ve met with many world leaders and there are world leaders that I’ve met with that are in this book and there are many that I’ve met with that are not in this book. This is an anecdote that I asked to have removed because I believe it’s appropriate at this point in time.” Watch the clip Brennan, on a passage in which Noem talks about shooting a billy goat after shooting Cricket, her family dog: “How do you justify that? How was the goat a threat? And I’m asking you this because it seems like you’re celebrating the killing of the animals.” Noem: “Not at all. This has been a story that my political opponents have tried to use against me for years. It’s well known in South Dakota and it has been to other people, and I want that truth to be out there and to understand that these animals were attacking my children. … The extremism of other people and how they have attacked me politically, I understand it — they’re doing the same thing to me that they do to Donald Trump every day.” Watch the clip — Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) on whether he will commit to accepting the 2024 election results, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “At the end of the day, the 47th president of the United States will be President Donald Trump. … That is my statement.” — Sen. MARK KELLY (D-Ariz.) on conditioning aid to Israel, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “I've talked to the Israeli Ambassador, MICHAEL HERZOG about this specifically: That if we don’t see some changes [in military conduct], I think it is appropriate to put conditions on some of this aid.” On the border security negotiations: “It’s the most frustrating thing I have dealt with while I’ve been in office, probably in my entire adult life. … We had an agreement. This was negotiated over a long period of time. … We were so close. And, again, one person, one individual, stopped that from happening. And that’s the former president.” — Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) on Biden’s comments on the campus protests, on ABC’s “This Week”: “It was absolutely too late. It was two weeks after these pro-Hamas fanatics had taken over a lot of campuses and set up these little Gazas. Second, he didn’t specifically speak to what they’re saying and what they’re doing.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
- “The Exit Interviews,” by NYT Opinion, featuring 12 retiring members of Congress
- “Why the Right Loves the Anti-Israel Encampments,” by Jonathan Chait for NY Mag
- “We’re going back to Gaza to feed people. Here’s what we need from Israel,” by José Andrés for WaPo
- “The race to build a better internet — before it’s too late,” by Chuck Todd for NBC News
- “What I Saw at Columbia’s Demonstration,” by WSJ’s Peggy Noonan
- “The Price We Pay for Having Upper-Class Legislators,” by Jamelle Bouie for NYT
- “Biden is letting Assad off the hook, with dangerous consequences,” by Josh Rogin for WaPo
- “Time to Tune Out Biden’s Media Criticism,” by Jack Shafer
- “Biden Is Not Winning. His Campaign Should Stop Acting Like It Is,” by Ross Douthat for NYT
| | | | A message from the Small Business Payments Alliance:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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Some of Biden's biggest backers have given support to the pro-Palestinian protesters. | Ed White/AP | 1. MONEY TALKS: Many of the pro-Palestinian protesters who have descended on college campuses over the past month have been highly critical of the president. But some of Biden’s biggest financial backers are the ones throwing support behind the demonstrations. “The donors include some of the biggest names in Democratic circles: Gates, Soros, Rockefeller and Pritzker,” Shia Kapos reports. “The trail of donations shows a series of blurred lines when it comes to liberal causes and Democratic politics. Often those missions are aligned, but they also sometimes have different and — particularly when it comes to Gaza — conflicting agendas and tactics. And a small group of wealthy heavyweights are often playing an outsize role funding many of them. But as protester tactics have grown more intense, like taking over university buildings and shouting antisemitic remarks, the groups behind them are now attracting criticism from prominent donors on the left.” Related read: “Antiwar protesters are ready to hunker down past graduation,” by Juan Perez Jr. 2. ANOTHER SHAKEUP AT THE RNC: CHARLIE SPIES is resigning as top lawyer for the Republican Party “after he cited conflicts with his other work obligations and after Donald Trump grew angry about his criticism of the former president’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen,” WaPo’s Josh Dawsey and Michael Scherer report. It was Spies’ “past work — including for the presidential campaign of Gov. RON DESANTIS of Florida, the super PAC supporting JEB BUSH against Donald J. Trump during the 2016 Republican primary and MITT ROMNEY, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee” that “softened the ground to get rid of him,” NYT’s Maggie Haberman reports. “But in the last few weeks, the fact that Mr. Spies’s firm — from which he did not take a leave when he accepted the R.N.C. job — still has ties to Mr. DeSantis became a particular point of concern for Trump officials, the two people said. 3. THE MESSY MAJORITY: “House GOP embroiled in escalating primary feuds with majority on the line,” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Melanie Zanona: “It has long been a breach of protocol on Capitol Hill to campaign against sitting members of the same party. But the 118th Congress has seen the House GOP descend into a seemingly endless series of intraparty wars, with members hurling personal insults at each other, pointedly blaming each other for their failures to enact a conservative agenda and now actively stumping to defeat their own Republican colleagues in races that will carry major consequences for the direction of the party.” A snapshot: “In Texas, Rep. TONY GONZALES is trying to fend off a challenger backed by GOP Rep. MATT GAETZ of Florida and by [Virginia Rep. BOB] GOOD — whom the incumbent Republican recently derided as ‘scumbags’ — ahead of his May 28 runoff. In South Carolina, members of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus are rallying around conservative state Rep. ADAM MORGAN, who is trying to knock off Rep. WILLIAM TIMMONS in the June 11 primary. In Virginia, center-right Republicans and the ousted former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY are helping Republican challenger JOHN MCGUIRE ahead of the June 18 primary against Good, one of eight Republicans who voted to oust McCarthy last fall.” 4. ABORTION ON THE BALLOT: Kathy Gilsinan reports for POLITICO Magazine from Hialeah, Florida, “a heavily Republican and Cuban South Florida city that also has one of the state’s highest concentration of abortion clinics,” where a community shows how fraught the decision facing voters in the state this fall will be. “The fate of a November referendum to reverse the six-week ban now rests largely on how many other Republicans feel abortion should be legal, even if they wouldn’t choose it for themselves,” Kathy writes. “Polling conducted before the six-week ban took effect shows Florida Latinos to be divided on the issue, and more conservative than their counterparts nationally, according to the Miami Herald — with 35 percent of Florida Latinos strongly or somewhat in favor of a post-six-week ban on abortions with exceptions, 36 percent against it, and 27 percent picking neither option. As the reality of the six-week ban becomes clearer and a presidential election approaches with both Trump and abortion access on the ballot in Florida, how this powerful and conflicted voting bloc ultimately breaks will decide what happens in clinics like this across the state — whether or not they also help put Trump back in the White House. Thus it’s freedom — not party affiliation — that will be key to getting their support, according to referendum backers I spoke to.” Related read: “Florida Activists Gird for November Vote to Undo Six-Week Abortion Law,” by WSJ’s Stephanie Armour and James Grimaldi
| | | | A message from the Small Business Payments Alliance:   | | | 5. TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK: Trump’s campaign operation is “weighing whether to join TikTok, the wildly popular video app he once tried to ban, and the decision has sparked discussion among his advisers in recent weeks,” WaPo’s Drew Harwell and Josh Dawsey report. “The discussions within the Trump campaign have centered on whether the benefits he might accrue politically would be worth the criticism, primarily from Republicans and those in the intelligence community who have crusaded against the app, people with knowledge of the conversations said. They are also trying to figure out how Trump’s brand can be translated to TikTok, a youth-beloved app with a culture all its own.” 6. UNDER THE INFLUENCE: “The Many Reinventions of a Legendary Washington Influence Peddler,” by Brody Mullins and Luke Mullins for POLITICO Magazine, from an excerpt of their forthcoming book, “The Wolves Of K Street: The Secret History of How Big Money Took Over Big Government,” ($34.99): “Trump’s victory would touch off the most dramatic reshuffling of K Street’s pecking order since the conservative revolution of 1980. The Democratic lobbyists who’d expected to flourish under a Hillary Clinton administration were now out in the cold, and the Republican lobbying establishment had almost no relationship with Trump. “Suddenly every wheeler-dealer in the city was racing to make friends in Trump’s orbit, portraying themselves as longtime backers of the MAGA movement, even if they weren’t, and creating new strategies for getting what they wanted out of the president-elect. Washington’s entire lobbying industry, it seemed, was reinventing itself overnight. Reinvention was something that [JIM] COURTOVICH had mastered years ago.” 7. GLAZING ARIZONA: “Arizona Is Booming, but Restless Voters Feel Downbeat About Economy,” by WSJ’s Eliza Collins in Phoenix: “In a Wall Street Journal survey of swing state voters in March, 60% of residents said Arizona was headed in the wrong direction, nearly twice the share who viewed it as going in the right direction and the most negative assessment among the seven battleground states expected to decide the presidential race. “Half of Arizona respondents said the state’s economy had gotten worse over the last two years, and nearly three-quarters indicated it’s getting more difficult for the average person to get ahead. The findings help explain why former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leads Biden by 5 percentage points among Arizona voters in the Journal survey.” 8. THE CRYPTO CRACKDOWN: “‘The law is catching up’: Gensler’s SEC racks up legal wins against crypto,” by Declan Harty: “A string of legal victories by the Securities and Exchange Commission has jolted some of crypto’s biggest players and shaken the industry as it strives for greater credibility in Washington. Judges have recently rebuked claims that the SEC lacks authority to police the market. Coinbase, the largest U.S. exchange, lost a bid to throw out charges that it is violating investor-protection rules. And a New York jury found one-time billionaire entrepreneur Do Kwon and his firm liable for fraud. Now, the crackdown is about to expand, with the SEC preparing for a new round of lawsuits.” 9. BIG INVESTIGATION: “‘Everything’s on fire’: Inside the nation’s failure to safeguard toxic pipelines,” by POLITICO’s E&E News’ Mike Soraghan: “Regulators at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Department of Transportation and state agencies leave the monitoring of pipeline construction almost exclusively to this network of private inspectors paid by the developers. When inspectors identify safety lapses, it’s often left to the companies themselves to decide when to make fixes, or whether to make fixes at all. “Eight inspectors who’ve worked on pipeline projects in states across the country, some granted anonymity to discuss safety hazards, told E&E News that their warnings were often ignored by the pipeline companies. And if they refuse to be ignored, they say, they can be fired. It’s a potentially deadly gap in the regulatory apparatus at a time when President Joe Biden is investing billions of dollars to bury carbon dioxide emissions in the earth — which requires a new network of pipelines.”
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Mary Peltola celebrated May The Fourth. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the McCain Institute’s 11th annual Sedona Forum in Sedona, Arizona this weekend: Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), Reps. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) and Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, Gen. Laura Richardson, Adm. Linda Fagan, U.S. Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman, Roger Carstens, Jon Finer, Alexandra Hall Hall, Sheryl Sandberg, Denis Mukwege, Dasha Navalnaya, Kenyan Ambassador Martin Kimani, Evelyn Farkas, Rick Davis, Heidi Heitkamp, Jack McCain, Michael Crow, David Axelrod, Paul Kane, Seung Min Kim, Courtney Kube, Kelly O’Donnell, Josh Rogin and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez. — SPOTTED at a Conservative Climate Foundation event in Augusta, Georgia, focused on the role of nuclear power, like the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, in an all-of-the-above energy approach: Reps. Rick Allen (R-Ga.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Blake Moore (R-Utah) and Jeff Duncan (R-S.C.), Heather Reams, Lauren Lathem, David Brown and John Jacobs. — SPOTTED at Mike and Shannon Dubke's annual Kentucky Derby party in Alexandria yesterday: Mike Sommers, Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer, Jason Thielman, Steven Law, Amy Mitchell, Craig Purser, Brian Wild, Ben Ginsberg, Raj Shah, AJ Bhadelia, Kate Sheerin, Jose Castaneda, Emily Horne, Stewart and Victoria Jeffries, Reid Wilson, Julia Lawless, Ben Gielow, Michael Meehan, Brian Jones, Carl Forti and Chris Maloney. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Andrew Kaczynski, a senior editor at CNN, and Rachel Louise Ensign, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, on April 17 welcomed Maya Kaczynski, who joins big sister Talia. Pic … Another pic — Lucas Zavala, an economist at the World Bank, and Amanda Zheutlin, a principal scientist at Johnson & Johnson Innovative Medicine, recently welcomed Santiago Rio Zavala. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: WaPo’s Dan Balz … POLITICO’s Alex Guillén and Francesca Barber … Mark McKinnon … White House’s Dan Hornung … Terry Moynihan … Whitney Robertson … Bloomberg’s Mike Dorning … Dustin Walker … ABC’s Rachel Scott … Sacha Haworth … Jenna Valle-Riestra … Reproductive Freedom for All’s Neisha Blandin … ABC’s Diana Paulsen … former Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (D-Texas) … Danielle Stewart … Rachel Wein … Zach Huebschman … Ann Saybolt … Christine Pelosi … West End Strategy Team’s Blake Goodman … Raghav Joshi of Voters of Tomorrow … Brian Williams … AP’s David Sharp … Amanda Zamora … Morgan Pehme … Lulu Cheng Meservey … Axios’ Ryan Heath Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from the Small Business Payments Alliance: SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS OPPOSE DURBIN-MARSHALL MANDATES: According to a new survey, most small business owners oppose new government regulation for payment networks and have reservations about the Credit Card Competition Act or other forced adoption of processing networks. When asked how much government regulation there should be on payment processing fees, most (83%) small business decision makers say government regulation should stay the same (48%) or decrease (35%). Two-thirds (64%) believe that the Credit Card Competition Act would benefit large retailers more than small businesses and a similar two-thirds (64%) say that forced adoption of new/updated processing networks will place an unfair cost burden on business owners. The survey also found that the existing electronic payments system is critical for small businesses, with most (88%) saying digital transactions are very important and nearly all (99%) placing a high priority on keeping customer payments secure. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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