Tuesday, May 16, 2023

👉Sideways Markets Still Likely Amid Debt Ceiling Debates

Good morning. Investors have largely focused on the Federal Reserve and its interest rate hikes...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Investors have largely focused on the Federal Reserve and its interest rate hikes over the past year. With the Fed now strongly hinting that they're done, it's likely that the economy can adjust to current rates and grow, while inflation continues to trend lower.

However, we're likely not moving back to a full-blown market rally yet. With the debt ceiling debates going on right now, there's a slight chance that the US will default on some of its debt, at least technically and in the short-term. While this political drama unfolds, market volatility will likely rise – and we'll likely have some down days ahead.

Traders and investors alike should use those down days to take advantage of lower prices, as the debt ceiling drama usually ends up working out just fine over time. Any drop related to the debt ceiling fears tends to reverse quickly.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,348.60 +0.14%
S&P 4,136.28 +0.30%
NASDAQ 12,365.21 +0.66%
*As of market close
Stocks closed higher on Monday, ahead of negotiations in Washington for the debt ceiling.
Oil rallied 1.9 percent, closing at $71.34 per barrel.
Gold traded flat, at $2,020 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally rallied, with Bitcoin at $27,421 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Prepare to Buy an Industry Leader on an Earnings Drop
While the stock market has fared well so far this year, investors have been more cautious going into earnings. And most companies have reported a slowdown, but overall it hasn't been as bad as expected.

The wild card is the housing market. Rising interest rates and fewer homeowners looking to sell are creating a tight market, but one where prices could potentially drop. In that environment, homeowners may slow down home maintenance or improvements.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Six Flags Entertainment (SIX)
Gary Mick, CFO at Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), recently added 5,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 6 percent, and came to a total cost of $133,125.

This marks the first insider activity at the company so far this year. The CFO was also the most recent buyer with 3 separate buys last December, when the share price was more than 20 percent lower than where it trades today.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Mercer International (MERC)
Paper materials company Mercer International (MERC) is down nearly 40 percent over the past year. One trader is betting on a sharp rebound in the coming months.

That's based on the August $12.50 calls. With 94 days until expiration, 22,725 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 146, for a 156-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.15 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Paul Tudor Jones: Fed Is Done Raising Rates

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones sees the Federal Reserve as finished with its monetary tightening. While that may not mean interest rates move lower anytime soon, the central bank will likely pause for some time while inflation data catches up. The hedge fund manager also sees stocks closing the year higher.
Lenders Warn on Soaring Costs Amid Debt Default

An estimate by real estate firm Zillow (Z) suggests that housing costs could spike by 22 percent if the United States defaults on tis debt. That's because rising bond yields would likely spur mortgage rates to move even higher. And with the current tight supply and low interest in selling a home right now, home prices would likely decline further on sales that do go through.
CEO Pay Packages Fell in 2022

Two-thirds of corporate CEOs managing S&P 500 companies saw their total compensation drop. That's partly due to declining share prices, as bonuses are often tied to the stock price. The largest drop was the value for Tesla Motors (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, whose awards dropped nearly $10 billion in value.
Newmont Makes $17.5 Billion Offer for Newcrest

The gold mining sector continues to consolidate. Newmont (NEM) has agreed to buy gold and copper miner Newcrest (NCMGY) in a deal valued at $17.5 billion. That's the largest-ever deal for the sector. Newcrest is based out of Australia, and the move will allow Newmont to expand into copper, a key industrial metal.
Blackstone Unloads IBS Software Stake

Asset manager Blackstone (BX) has reached an agreement to sell its stake in IBS Software, an India-based software-as-a-service startup. Apax will buy the stake for $450 million. IBS provides solutions to airlines, hospitality, and logistics companies. Blackstone acquired 40 percent of the company in 2015 for $170 million.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
WDC  11.278%
ZION  7.601%
CMA 7.007%
JD 6.742%
BIDU 6.423%
BOTTOM
OKE 9.267%
FSLR 3.658%
TSCO 3.247%
AEE 2.938%
PODD 2.695%

Quote of the Day
None of the sectors are making convincing moves in either direction, reflecting a general lack of conviction in the market.
- Joe Cusick, portfolio specialist and senior vice president at Calamos Investments, on the market's lack of a sector leader, which may indicate a sideways move ahead in the stock market in the coming weeks and months.

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