Tuesday, January 17, 2023

👢The Market May Not Have Fully Priced In the Next Shoe to Drop

Good morning. Investors have started the year looking for reasons for the market to head higher...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Investors have started the year looking for reasons for the market to head higher—and the market has delivered. Inflation data has come down, and the Fed has started to slow the pace of its interest rate hikes.

However, one area where the market looks more bullish than the data suggests is in corporate profit margins. A slowing economy means slowing earnings. And for many companies already trying to pass on inflationary price changes, it's likely that corporate profit margins will slow over the next few quarters. That could keep stocks from heading higher – the latest Goldman Sachs (GS) analyst estimate is for stocks to end the year where they traded on Friday.

It's clear that we're still in cautious territory, and traders may find better opportunities on the downside in the coming weeks.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 34,302.61 +0.33%
S&P 3,999.09 +0.40%
NASDAQ 11,079.16 +0.71%
*As of market close
Markets were closed Monday, in honor of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Today's TOP TIPS
In Bear Markets, Follow Investors Looking to Unlock Value Now
While stocks have had a strong start to the year, corporate earnings show a slowdown. And interest rates are still on track to rise. Investors should generally be cautious about long-side ideas right now. One way to find the best opportunities is to look at where big-name players are going.

Besides making large purchases of shares, which can help the price rise, some companies may attract interest from activist investors. These investors can help management make more profitable decisions.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Rent-A-Center (RCII)
Jeffrey Brown, a director at Rent-A-Center (RCII), recently bought 1,084 shares. The buy increased his holdings by just over 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $26,233.

The director has been a quarterly buyer of shares going back to 2021. Other company insiders have been slight buyers, with a CEO buy of 40,000 shares for $1.08 million last March. The last insider sale occurred in December 2021.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Sabre Corporation (SABR)
Shares of travel services company Sabre Corporation (SABR) have shed about one-third of their price over the past year. One trader sees shares trending lower in the first half of this year.

That's based on the July $7.00 put. With 184 days until expiration, 42,714 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 110, for a 388-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.22 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
US to Hit Debt Limit Thursday

The US is on track to hit its statutory debt limit on Thursday, unless that limit is either suspended or increased. The Treasury Department has announced that it will start taking extraordinary measures to avoid defaulting on its obligations, which could allow funding through June.
IMF Warns on Shrinking Global Output

The International Monetary Fund has warned that declining international cooperation is leading to lower levels of commerce. In total, this could lead to a decline in the global economy, with lower-income countries more dependent on exports being hit harder, especially with rising restrictions on trade.
Wealthiest Captured Bulk of Global Gains

The wealthiest 1 percent have captured about twice as much of the newly created wealth of the past two years compared to the rest of the world. The 1 percent saw their net worth rise by $26 trillion, while the bottom 99 percent globally saw a collective $16 trillion rise.
Tesla Loses Market Share

Thanks to rising competition, Tesla Motors (TSLA) lost market share in the electric vehicle market. Overall, EV sales rose 66 percent for 2022 compared to the prior year. While Tesla was still the leader for overall EV sales, rising sales from other automakers contributed to the loss of market share.
Norton LifeLock Reports Data Breach

Gen Digital (GEN), the parent company of Norton LifeLock, has reported a data breach impacting thousands of customers. The company reports the reason behind the breach was based on a credential stuffing attack rather than a system compromise. The data breach potentially allows criminals access to customer password managers.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
MELI 5.798%
NTES  3.811%
ILMN 3.603%
WFC 3.409%
EXPE 2.968%
BOTTOM
F 5.398%
GM 5.114%
DAL 3.573%
DISH 3.553%
GD 3.434%

Quote of the Day
Inflation expectations are well-anchored and improving as pricing pressures are weakening across many sectors. The Fed will likely hike by 0.25% at the upcoming meeting later this month. We shouldn't be surprised if the Fed starts talking about pausing in the near future.
- Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial chief economist, on why inflation may continue drop in the months ahead, which will allow the Fed to slow its rate hikes even further before pausing them entirely later this year.

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