Wednesday, January 18, 2023

👉Investors May Be Focused on the Wrong Policies This Year

Good morning. It's pretty clear that investors were focused entirely on actions from the Federal...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. It's pretty clear that investors were focused entirely on actions from the Federal Reserve last year. The central bank's announcement to raise interest rates and sharp follow-through led to a big change for the worse for how nearly all assets were valued.

But the Fed's moves over the past year may become moot. That's because fiscal policy is the other half of the equation. And we're on track for another debt ceiling debacle. The situation could be similar to the 2012 debt limit brinksmanship that led to a partial government shutdown and a market meltdown. Or it could lead to a massively higher debt ceiling, which clears the way for more government spending – which is inflationary and at odds with the Fed's moves.

Either way, it's clear that we're facing some rising short-term uncertainty, which may create a few opportunities on the short side in the coming weeks.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,910.85 -1.14%
S&P 3,990.97 -0.20%
NASDAQ 11,095.11 +0.14%
*As of market close
Markets traded mixed on Tuesday, amid slowing earnings by big banks.
Oil rose 1.5 percent, closing at $81.03 per barrel.
Gold slid 0.6 percent, going for $1,911 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies jumped higher over the long weekend, with Bitcoin at $21,331 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Focus on Companies Keeping Customers Content
Typically, a new industry will start dozens if not hundreds of companies before consolidating over time. Although many industries tend to consolidate into just a few companies, those remaining firms will then start to compete with each other based on how they keep customers happy in a fully developed market.

Having a choice can ensure that quality doesn't slip, and that businesses find ways to deliver better results at lower prices for their customers over time.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Midland States Bancorp (MSBI)
Richard Bingham, a director at Midland States Bancorp (MSBI), recently added 4,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 22 percent, and came to a total cost of $100,000.

The company's corporate council bought 2,000 shares, for just under $51,000, latest last year. Generally, Midland States Bancorp insiders have been regular and modest sellers of shares following option exercises over the past few years.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
Shares of drugstore and healthcare planning company CVS Health Corporation (CVS) are down about in-line with the overall market in the past year. One trader sees shares moving higher in the coming month.

That's based on the February $87.50 calls. With 31 days until expiration, 15,089 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 360, for a 42-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $3.95 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Inflation Adds $371 Per Month in Spending

Higher inflation has resulted in the average household paying an extra $371 per month on goods and services compared to a year ago. That includes items such as food, rent, and utilities. That's down from an extra $502 per month back in June, when inflation data peaked.
House Looks for Spending Cuts Amid Debt Ceiling Debate

The Treasury Department has warned the House of Representatives that the debt ceiling is set to be breached. Republican lawmakers controlling the House are looking for additional ways to curb government spending as a contingency to avoid hitting the ceiling as the Treasury starts to resort to extraordinary measures.
China GDP Growth Slows to 3 Percent

China reported 3 percent GDP growth for 2022, according to their National Bureau of Statistics. That's in contrast to expectations for 2.8 percent growth. The country grew by 8.4 percent in 2021, but just saw 2.2 percent growth in 2020, at the start of the pandemic and the peak of government lockdowns.
EV Sales Hit 10 Percent of Total Car Sales

One out of every 10 cars sold in 2022 were electric vehicles, according to industry data. The fraction is larger in Europe and China, and are still below average in the US. Growth is faster outside the US as well. EV sales were boosted in part by continued supply chain and production issues from the traditional car market.
China Approves Didi Relaunch

After being suspend in China, ride-sharing app company Didi is being allowed to come back. The app was shut down on Chinese app stores in July 2021, as the country cited the illegal collection of user data, even as the company saw shares being listed on a US exchange.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
TSLA  7.432%
MS  5.837%
NVDA 4.551%
KMX 3.723%
VRTX 3.665%
BOTTOM
EMR 6.878%
GS 6.631%
MHK 6.245%
BIDU 5.799%
JD 5.684%

Quote of the Day
Frankly, the market has rallied pretty nicely over the last few weeks, absent a catalyst, and so there might be a little bit of profit taking out of earnings season going.
- Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, on why the market may start trending down over the next few weeks following a strong rally to start the year.

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