Thursday, December 8, 2022

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Microsoft awaits decision on its Activision deal...
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Morning Brew

Droplette

Good morning. Okay, that's it—that is the last time we'll get our history facts from Animal House. In an epic brain fart, we wrote yesterday that the attack on Pearl Harbor happened in 1945, but, of course, the war was over by then. Pearl Harbor happened in 1941. We apologize for our error.

Let's move on to unembarrassing things, like our excellent newsletter Marketing Brew. It's a quick, fun read that will help all the marketing pros reading this understand the industry a lot better. Check it out if you're looking for useful marketing updates.

Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch, Abby Rubenstein

MARKETS

Nasdaq

10,958.55

S&P

3,933.92

Dow

33,597.92

10-Year

3.425%

Bitcoin

$16,840.36

Carvana

$3.83

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 suffering its fifth straight day of losses. Investors are keeping a wary eye on the Fed's future rate hike decisions and CEOs are still going on CNBC to predict a recession is coming. Carvana's stock tanked after its biggest creditors made a deal to work together, pushing the online car reseller's shares down so low that its CEO has lost 98% of his wealth this year (which is second only to Sam Bankman-Fried's percentage loss).
 

TECH

Microsoft's giant video game deal nears judgment day

Illustration of a Call of Duty skeleton with Microsoft logo in his eyes Photo Illustration: Dianna "Mick" McDougall, Source: Call of Duty

If you can remember back to January, Microsoft shook up the gaming world when it agreed to buy Call of Duty-maker Activision Blizzard for $69 billion. If it goes through, it'd be Microsoft's biggest acquisition and one of the 30 largest deals ever.

Key word: if. The FTC has been fretting over the antitrust implications of this deal and, in a meeting today, regulators could vote on whether to sue to block it from going through. The primary worry: Microsoft produces its own console, the Xbox, and if it were to also own Activision's games, it could withhold those titles from competitors, such as Sony's PlayStation.

Given the enormous popularity of Call of Duty, it would be a nightmare scenario for Sony to get frozen out of the franchise. The franchise has generated $30 billion in revenue on its own, and the most-recent release, Modern Warfare II, racked up more than $1 billion in sales in its first 10 days.

Microsoft wants to show it can play nice

Like an alien descending the stairs of a UFO, Microsoft says "We come in peace ." As part of its campaign to soothe regulators ahead of a potential vote, on Tuesday it announced an agreement with Nintendo to bring CoD to the Switch for 10 years. Microsoft said it made a similar offer to Sony that would make new CoD releases available on PlayStation, but it seems that Sony hasn't checked voicemail yet..

With its charm offensive, Microsoft is attempting to placate regulators not just in the US, but also around the world. 16 governments have to greenlight its deal for Activision, and only a small minority has approved it so far.

Still, the biggest fight may be on Microsoft's home turf. Under the Biden administration, regulators have gone full beast mode in trying to block mergers over antitrust concerns. So far during Biden's term, the DOJ has sued to block eight mergers and the FTC has also sued to block eight. Over the same period of the Trump administration, the DOJ challenged one merger and the FTC five, per the NYT.—NF

        

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Aaron Judge smackin one outta the park. John Fisher/Getty Images

Aaron Judge gives a negotiation master class. Before the start of the 2022 MLB regular season, Yankees slugger Aaron Judge turned down the team's offer of $213.5 million over seven years, believing that he could increase his value. He was right: After mashing an AL-record 62 homers last season, Judge reportedly signed a deal with the Yankees worth $360 million over nine years—so he boosted his pay by $146.5 million. Judge will make $40 million a year, the highest average annual payout for a position player in MLB history.

Supreme Court doesn't seem ready to toss the rulebook on federal elections. The high court heard oral arguments yesterday in a case over North Carolina's electoral map that could dramatically reshape how federal elections are conducted. But it appeared that a majority of the justices probably won't support a theory put forward by NC Republicans known as the "independent state legislature theory," which would let state legislatures set election rules without the possibility of review by state courts.

Ex-Theranos president gets a longer sentence than Elizabeth Holmes. A federal judge sentenced Ramesh "Sunny" Balwani, who was Holmes's No. 2 at the failed blood-testing startup and is also her ex-boyfriend, to nearly 13 years in prison (Holmes got 11). Balwani and Holmes had pointed the finger at each other for the fraud at Theranos, which they built into a $10 billion company before it came out that the tech they were hyping simply didn't work and was never going to.

MEDIA

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle trade 1 empire for another

Harry and Meghan dancing at their wedding. Netflix

Netflix took a break from quirky serial killer dramas to drop the first three episodes of its highly anticipated docuseries about Prince Harry and Meghan Markle this morning. The docuseries follows the couple from the early days of their relationship through the issues that ultimately led them to ditch the crown.

The formerly full-time royal couple is also hoping the series will serve as a cornerstone of their emerging media empire.

The project is the first to come out of the multiyear deal Harry and Meghan's production company, Archewell Productions, inked with Netflix—a deal estimated to be worth ~$100 million. The couple has been mostly mum about what projects we can anticipate (Netflix quietly cut a planned animated series this summer).

But just days ago, previews for Harry & Meghan dropped, and like everything the pair does, the promos drew a big response. They also received immediate criticism for being misleading, since some photos used to depict overbearing paparazzi were of swarming photographers…at events the couple didn't even attend.

It's all falling into place. The first season of Markle's podcast, Archetypes, just wrapped, an endeavor that is part of a three-year, $15 million–$18 million exclusive deal with Spotify. And the prince's memoir, Spare, is somehow already on every holiday gift list, even though it won't be released until January.—MM

        

FOOD & BEV

We are living in the golden age of soup

Campbell's Soup illustration Hannah Minn

The tin can. Bigger chunks of stuff. Getting wild with noodle shapes. That's a full list of the innovations in the soup industry over most of the last ~125 years, and it's not exactly a recipe for rapid growth. Yet Campbell Soup Company is boiling hot after announcing better than expected earnings yesterday.

The company revealed that organic sales (revenue outside of merger impacts) jumped 15% from the year prior, beating estimates, and that consumers responded better to inflation-based price hikes than anticipated. The soup stock (not the liquid) hit 52-week highs on the news. It's up about 28% year to date, while the S&P 500 is down ~18%. So what's going on with soup?

It's the future

Cheap, long-lasting foods tend to do better in economic downturns. But Campbell's didn't find success just by waiting for inflation to hit: Since 2019, the company has been fully leaning into innovation, using AI to comb through 300 billion data points every year in search of new product ideas.

Campbell's has also upended the way its employees work, shrinking soup lab space to encourage more collaboration.

Looking ahead…the company is planning a fourth wave of price hikes, betting that consumers will keep coming back for more soup.—MK

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids saying Bridesmaids/Universal Pictures

Stat: Elon Musk was briefly dethroned as the world's richest person for the first time since September 2021, after a drop in Tesla's share price yesterday caused him to fall below LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list (which updates every five minutes). Musk remains "which of my jets should I take today?" loaded, with more than $185 billion in net worth, but his fortune has taken a ~$70 billion hit since he offered to pay $44 billion to make Twitter's problems his own—mostly because Tesla stock is down about 50% this year.

Quote: "It was too expensive from the beginning…that's front of the soccer jersey level prices."

Taylor Swift's tour might be stuck in an unfortunate relationship with Ticketmaster, but the singer reportedly managed to dodge a deal with an even less popular partner. According to the Financial Times, the star's team made it to late-stage negotiations with FTX for a $100 million sponsorship—apparently celebrity-happy FTX wanted to get involved because ex-CEO Sam Bankman-Fried is "a fan of Tay Tay." Luckily for everyone's favorite anti-hero, she didn't end up associated with the brand because talks broke down a few months before FTX blew up. The price tag for keeping Swift bejeweled on tour was reportedly too high for the crypto exchange.

Read: Secrets of the Christmas tree trade. (Curbed)

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Juul has reached a deal to settle more than 5,000 lawsuits, many of which accused the company of marketing its vaping products to kids and teens.
  • Germany arrested 25 right-wing extremists who were allegedly plotting to overthrow the government.
  • San Francisco has decided not to let police use robots to kill people after all. The city's Board of Supervisors has backed a new policy allowing remote-controlled robots but barring them from using lethal force.
  • Peru's legislators voted to impeach President Pedro Castillo, despite his attempt to dissolve the nation's Congress to prevent it. His former vice president was sworn in as the country's new leader, and Castillo was arrested.

BREW'S BETS

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GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: Congrats—you've successfully gotten past Hump Day. Your next challenge is solving today's beefed up Mini.

Three headlines and a lie

Three of these headlines are real and one is faker than women's jeans sizes. Can you spot the odd one out?

  1. Only 6 people showed up to the EU's $400,000 party in the metaverse
  2. Startup that laid off 20% of its workforce draws outrage for paying Dua Lipa $200k to perform at holiday party
  3. Hospital patient arrested for allegedly switching off neighbor's 'noisy' oxygen machine
  4. Rogue wild turkeys led by 'Kevin' terrorize residents of Woburn, Massachusetts

AROUND THE BREW

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ANSWER

We made up the Dua Lipa one.

✤ A Note From reAlpha

MA, MD, and Hawaii Residents

reAlpha's Regulation A offering is not being made in MA, MD, and Hawaii, and reAlpha's common stock is not available for purchase by MA, MD, and Hawaii residents.

*The +70% was calculated using Zillow's listed monthly rents for specific properties in various popular cities (available at zillow.com on 7/19/2022) as compared to the specific properties' respective annual rental revenue divided by 12 (to be on a per-month basis) from AirDNA's Rentalizer tool. Information utilized for calculations from AirDNA (available at http://www.airdna.co/ on 7/19/2022).

         

Written by Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, Abigail Rubenstein, and Matty Merritt

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