Inside Biden’s decision to bring Brittney Griner home now

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Dec 08, 2022 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg President Joe Biden was convinced it was now or never, and he made the "very painful decision" to solely secure the release of basketball star Brittney Griner. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Jonathan Lemire, Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman For the last few weeks, President JOE BIDEN has been tasked with deciding the immediate futures of two Americans in Russian captivity, with a catch — he can't free them both. Biden was convinced it was now or never, and he made the "very painful decision" to solely secure the release of basketball star BRITTNEY GRINER, a senior administration official said. While Biden scored a major diplomatic victory, he again disappointed the family of PAUL WHELAN. The scramble that ensued between the U.S. and Russia to finalize the remaining details resulted in a movie-like scene unfolding Thursday morning on an Abu Dhabi tarmac. Griner and VIKTOR BOUT , a Russian arms dealer nicknamed the "Merchant of Death," passed each other during a prisoner swap. They made no eye contact as they walked to their respective aircraft. Since Griner's detention in February, U.S. negotiators spoke regularly with their Russian counterparts about a grand bargain. Kremlin aides made clear they wanted Bout, the notorious arms dealer in American custody since 2010. In exchange, the Biden administration pushed for the release of Griner and Whelan, a former Marine who Russia has held since 2018 on unproven charges of espionage. Discussions spanned the globe. MOHAMMED BIN ZAYED AL-NAHYAN, the leader of the United Arab Emirates, spoke with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN about the hostage swap during a meeting in October. CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS spoke with his Russian counterpart about striking a deal. And the Saudi government also counseled Moscow against holding foreign prisoners. Still, Russia rejected the U.S. proposal and came back in the last few weeks with a final answer: It was Griner for Bout, and only Griner for Bout. Biden's team briefed the president on the situation, presenting him with potential next-step options. He decided "to provide the clemency necessary to get this done and, indeed, to get it done," the senior administration official said. Griner is expected to arrive in San Antonio within the next 24 hours. Read Alex's full story with JONATHAN LEMIRE .   POLITICO AT CES 2023 : We are bringing a special edition of our Digital Future Daily newsletter to Las Vegas to cover CES 2023. The newsletter will take you inside the largest and most influential technology event on the planet, featuring every major and emerging industry in the technology ecosystem gathered in one place. The newsletter runs from Jan. 5-7 and will focus on the public policy related aspects of the event. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of CES 2023.     The Inbox CONSIDERING NUKES: KURT CAMPBELL, the National Security Council's Indo-Pacific coordinator, warned today that China's rapid expansion is prompting U.S. allies in the region to consider the development of nuclear weapons capability to counter that threat, our own PHELIM KINE reports. "Many countries in Asia who have the potential to build nuclear weapons have chosen not to and have instead relied on the strength and predictability of the American extended deterrence… that is being challenged now," Campbell said at an Aspen Institute event in Washington, D.C. The Pentagon warned last week that Beijing is aiming to expand its current stockpile of 400 nuclear warheads to around 1,500 by 2035. Campbell said current non-nuclear armed states in Asia see China's pursuit of "one of, if not the most fundamental upgrades in military capabilities in history," as a reason to consider building their own nuclear deterrents, alongside North Korean saber rattling and Russia's nuclear threats against Ukraine. Campbell offered a hopeful assessment of short-to-medium term U.S.-China relations despite challenges including Beijing's worsening military intimidation of Taiwan. "The last thing that the Chinese need right now is an openly hostile relationship with the United States," Campbell said. "They want a degree of predictability and stability. And we seek that as well." RUSSIAN TROOPS STRIKE UKRAINE, MOVE ON VILLAGES: Russian troops conducted deadly air and ground attacks on several settlements in eastern Ukraine, Reuters' VLADYSLAV SMILIANETS reports. The offensive killed nine civilians in the city of Bakhmut and other parts of the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian troops fired missiles in return, the regional governor said. In a nearby area, Russian forces moved to take a village near the city of Lysychansk. "They are bringing in more and more reserves" in an attempt to capture Bilohorivka, Luhansk governor SERHIY HAIDAY said on Ukrainian television. "There are constant attacks." The same day, Russian officials said its troops had shot down a Ukrainian drone over the Russian-occupied city of Sevastopol, suggesting that Ukraine is continuing its air attacks on its adversary following multiple strikes this week. RED CARPET FOR XI: Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN met with Chinese President XI JINPING in the Kingdom today as the pair usher in what Beijing's leader has called "a new era" in relations between the two, Reuters' AZIZ EL YAAKOUBI and EDUARDO BAPTISTA report . During their meeting, Xi and bin Salman strengthened ties with a series of strategic deals, including one with tech giant Huawei, whose expansion into the Gulf region has alarmed U.S. security officials. King SALMAN BIN ABDULAZIZ AL SAUD also signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership agreement" with the Chinese leader. It was part of the diplomatic charm offensive that our own PHELIM KINE laid out yesterday . It was a lavish welcome for Xi, who was escorted by members of the Saudi Royal Guard riding Arabian horses and carrying Chinese and Saudi flags to the royal palace in Riyadh. The friendly demonstration coincides with Saudi Arabia cozying up to Russia in recent weeks as OPEC+ cuts oil production worldwide. A meeting between the two included the crown prince "wishing him, his delegation a pleasant stay" in Saudi Arabia, state media reported. That's quite different from a fist bump — the royal treatment Biden received from bin Salaman during his visit to the Kingdom in July. PEACETIME… OR A LONG TIME: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY predicted "peacetime" for his country next year during an event with European leaders Wednesday night, contrasting with the Kremlin's comments that the war will be "a long process," our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports . Zelenskyy's remarks came after he was named the most powerful person in Europe during the annual POLITICO 28 ranking gala. During a Human Rights Council meeting earlier in the day, Putin said he expected the war in Ukraine to take much longer, a rare reference to the potential duration of the war from Moscow. The Kremlin head also warned that the risk of nuclear war was mounting, adding that Russia has "more advanced and modern" nuclear capability than any other country. He then walked back the warning, saying "we aren't about to run around the world brandishing this weapon like a razor." Putin has expressed his willingness to negotiate with the West to end the war, but refuses to concede Ukrainian territory claimed by Russian troops during its invasion, making it unlikely that potential diplomacy will be successful. OLD DRONES, NEW USE: Drones used to strike two Russian bases hundreds of miles from its border were modified Tu-141 surveillance aircraft left over from the Soviet era, our own ERIN BANCO and PAUL McLEARY reported Wednesday night , citing two people familiar with the operation. Ukraine has for months requested long-range missiles and drones from its Western allies, but the U.S. and Europe have so far refused to meet those requests over fears they would be used to strike inside Russia. Without additional resources to build up its long-range capabilities, Ukraine may need to continue to rely on the modified drones — and Moscow is now likely attempting to track those. "The key success factor was a surprise. Russia just did not expect anything of this sort," said one of the individuals, who works with the Ukrainian government. "Now they will be prepared." IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye . A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled. The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more.   Flashpoints WEAPONS SEIZED IN GERMAN COUP ATTEMPT: Authorities seized weapons found in dozens of properties raided as part of an investigation into the suspected far-right coup attempt on the German government, The Wall Street Journal's BOJAN PANCEVSKI reports . Weapons ranged from slingshots to crossbows and rifles, authorities said. Some were legally registered, while others were kept illegally. In Germany, firearm laws require weapon owners to possess permits. More arrests are expected to be made in connection with the plot, on top of the 25 people arrested Wednesday. Prosecutors believe that members of the terrorist group responsible for the plans subscribed to far-right conspiracy theories such as QAnon and had hired clairvoyants to help formulate the scheme. Keystrokes PUNCHING ABOVE ITS WEIGHT: Ukraine has surprised the world with its ability to fend off major cyberattacks from Russia. And one small country — Estonia — has played an outsized role in helping them do so, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports . The small nation has fought off Russian cyberattacks inside its borders for years. Now, it's leading many of the efforts to provide cyber threat intelligence, funding and critical international connections to protect Ukraine from Russian hackers. In interviews during Maggie's trip to Tallinn, Estonian officials detailed how they aid cybersecurity workers in a besieged Ukraine and coordinate with more powerful allies in Europe and the U.S. in the global effort to defend against Russia's digital attacks. It's a partnership that illustrates a unique aspect of modern cyber warfare — some of the most sustained efforts to protect networks are coming from smaller or less-resourced countries that have been the repeated victims of attacks and have learned the hard way about the need to invest in cyber armies. The Complex MAKING EVERYONE HAPPY: Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Oracle received a cloud-computing contract from the Pentagon worth up to $9 billion through 2028, CNBC's JORDAN NOVET reports. The contract, which is the outcome of the Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability, demonstrates the Defense Department's effort to rely on multiple companies providing remotely operated infrastructure technology — a strategy pushed for during the Trump administration. It's a surprising win for Oracle, which analysts don't view as a top company providing cloud-based computing services. The company generated $900 million in cloud infrastructure revenue in the last quarter, compared to Amazon's $20.5 billion in revenue. On the Hill NDAA PASSES WITH FLYING COLORS: The House overwhelmingly passed defense policy legislation on Thursday that would repeal the Pentagon's mandate that troops receive the Covid vaccine or be forced out of the military, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports . The $847 billion National Defense Authorization Act cleared the House in a blowout 350-80 vote and now heads to the Senate, which is expected to send the bill to President Joe Biden for his signature next week. The compromise defense bill, a product of weeks of talks between congressional leaders, jabs at a number of Biden's military policies. The bill also endorses a $45 billion increase to Biden's request. The measure crossed the House floor under suspension of the rules, a process to expedite bills that requires a two-thirds majority to pass. Coupled with the $30 billion increase Biden already sought in his budget, national defense spending would surge by roughly $75 billion above last year's level. TRIO PUSHES CHIPS INTO NDAA: A bipartisan trio of senators today announced that an amendment to ban the U.S. government from doing business with companies that rely on certain Chinese chip makers with ties to China has been included in the NDAA. Among targets of the amendment, which is spearheaded by Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas), Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), are a company the Pentagon has designated as a "Chinese military contractor" and another that's already subjected to U.S. export controls. The so-called Schumer-Cornyn amendment would eliminate the government's use of chips manufactured by companies with ties to the Chinese Communist Party, building on the CHIPS and Science Act signed into law earlier this year.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today .     Broadsides IRAN EXECUTES PROTESTER: Iranian officials said a prisoner convicted of a crime allegedly committed during protests that have roiled the nation was executed, the first public death penalty related to the demonstrations, the Associated Press' JON GAMBRELL reports . Iran state media identified the protester executed as MOHSEN SHEKARI, who had been charged with "moharebeh" 一 a Farsi word meaning "waging war against God" 一 for allegedly blocking a street in Tehran and attacking a member of security forces with a machete. It's a morbid development for at least a dozen other detainees who also face the death penalty for involvement in the protests, which Tehran has cracked down on after they erupted following the death of 22-year-old MAHSA AMINI at the hands of the country's morality police in September. Shekari's execution shows "the Iranian regime's contempt for humanity is limitless," German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK said in a tweet.     Transitions — LEILA ELMERGAWI has returned to the State Department to be economic policy adviser for global women's economic security. She most recently served simultaneously as director for international economic affairs (focused on digital economy policy) at the National Security Council and director for strategic workforce planning for the office of the NSC chief of staff. — GABRIELLE FONG is now senior associate at early-stage investment firm First In. She most recently was an intelligence officer at U.S. Fleet Cyber Command and U.S. Navy Space Command. — PETER BENZONI is joining the German Marshall Fund's Alliance for Securing Democracy as an investigative data and research analyst. He most recently was a data analyst with Atlas Public Policy. What to Read — BENJAMIN FRIEDMAN, Defense Priorities: Don't Fear Vacuums: It's Safe To Go Home — MINNA ÅLANDER and WILLIAM ALBERQUE, War on the Rocks: NATO's Nordic Enlargement: Contingency Planning and Lesson Learning — TIM GOLDEN, The New York Times: The Cienfuegos Affair: Inside the Case that Upended the Drug War in Mexico Tomorrow Today — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: The Future of Korean Competitiveness Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who would include Matt in a deal with Russia, but not Alex. And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who would save them both. A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled. Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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