Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Prince William and everyone else doing UNGA

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Aug 24, 2022 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Insider

By Ryan Heath

Follow Ryan on Twitter.

Happening Today

Ukraine independence day: President Joe Biden is giving Ukraine $3 billion in security assistance (the biggest single package of the past six months), and the U.K. has opened negotiations with Kyiv on a new digital trade agreement. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the occasion: "What is the end of the war for us? We used to say: Peace. Now we say: Victory."

Is the U.S. giving Ukraine some weapons secretly

Strike in Syria targets Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps: "Today's strikes were necessary to protect and defend U.S. personnel," Central Command spokesperson Col. Joe Buccino said in a statement, noting the bunker bombing was in retaliation for an attack against U.S. personnel on Aug. 15.

Brazilian police raided the homes of eight businessmen supporting President Jair Bolsonaro. Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court judge responsible for election law, is investigating the men for discussing a possible coup in the event the conservative leader loses October's presidential election.

Analysts are watching the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve, for interest rate indications.

Finland's Sanna Marin is still in the headlines, this time over a photo snapped at the PM's summer residence. More on Marin's headline-generating capacity below.

Presidential vacation time is over: Biden returns to the White House from Rehoboth Beach, Del.

Just in time for Global Insider to take a break next week. Normal programming will resume Sept. 6.

 

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GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

NUCLEAR NIHILISM: At an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting Tuesday, officials called for inspection and demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine, as Moscow and Kyiv trade harsh accusations over who's at fault.

Security Council members were unanimous in alarm, with Rosemary DiCarlo , the U.N.'s top peacebuilding official urging both parties to provide immediate access to IAEA inspectors. "Agreement is urgently needed to reestablish Zaporizhzhia as purely civilian infrastructure and to ensure the safety of the area," DiCarlo said.

CHINA'S SUPPLY CHAIN IS MELTING — GLOBAL EFFECTS OF NATIONAL HEATWAVE: High temperatures in China (95 degrees Fahrenheit at night in some places) are forcing factories to cut power and low rivers are hampering both hydroelectricity production (which supplies one-fifth of China's energy) and shipping supply chains. More than 600 cities are expected to top 98 degrees Fahrenheit on Friday.

China's problems are a preview of what's to come globally: Just take a look at what's been happening on Europe's Rhine River (where water levels are now finally rising ). The takeaway is that extreme weather doesn't just hurt worker productivity: It messes up supply chains.

The question logistics managers must now ask: What is my organization's optimal supply chain to cope with the latest climate modeling?

U.K. — WHO IN THE WORLD HATES LIZ TRUSS? Governments around the world have very mixed emotions about the likely next British Prime Minister . She's despised in Moscow and Beijing, distrusted in Dublin, viewed with some skepticism in Washington and Canberra, badmouthed in Brussels … but embraced in the Baltics.

Read more here from Global Insider about what Washington really thinks of Truss.

ANGOLA —  A TENSE, COMPETITIVE ELECTION: Angolans are voting today in National Assembly elections. It's a parliamentary system, so the leader of the biggest parliament bloc goes on to be president.

Angola has been ruled by the People's Movement for the Liberation of Angola since the country gained independence from Portugal in 1975. President João Lourenço is only the country's second president, and this year, MPLA's polling lead is down to single digits.

The main challenge to the MPLA comes from the UNITA party of Adalberto Costa Júnior, who has called his country a one-party state and MPLA a "cancer" on Angola. Costa Júnior is heavily supported by the country's youth, who have little memory of civil war and none of the colonial era.

MPLA has long-standing ties to Russia and China, though Lourenço has indicated an interest in building stronger ties with the U.S.

" All the ingredients are present for election-related violence and instability no matter which side prevails," write International Republican Institute's Jenai Cox and Mike Brodo.

ETHIOPIA — HEAVY FIGHTING BREAKS TIGRAY TRUCE: Rebel forces and central government troops are once again exchanging gunfire in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region. The Ethiopian government last week called for a formal Tigray ceasefire agreement; the Tigray People's Liberation Front called the move "obfuscation."

FINLAND — CIRCLING BACK TO SANNA MARIN'S PARTYING: The Finnish prime minister returned a negative drug test, as an online movement grows among women outraged at how Marin has been treated for wanting a night off to party and dance with friends.

One (male) Global Insider reader pushed back on the idea that Marin's partying can be separated from her judgment: "In the period since submitting the Finnish application to become a NATO member, the country is in a heightened state of alert." With nuclear threats and Russian aggression at Finland's doorstep, it's not easy to predict when and how a crisis may unfold, the argument goes. Nor is it sexism, this reader claims: "a male drunk politician filmed in an act of passionate frottage against a female celebrity in a club would have not been forgiven."

Do you want to respond? Do you agree? Do you have evidence of Winston Churchill or Boris Johnson drunk on the job? Email me: rheath@politico.com.

Finns have more parsimonious concerns: Other complaints thrown at Marin this week include her taking an official car to the party and recalling that she charges taxpayers for breakfast prepared for her at her official residency.

IS UNGA THE NEW DAVOS?

The three-week countdown to the United Nations General Assembly is on. But be warned: It's no longer merely UNGA week — or only about the U.N.

Instead, New York City in the second half of September has become a two-week festival attracting all those who deal with global challenges. The scene is spread across dozens of side events, ranging from the future of tech to events that feel like Back to the Future: aka the Clinton Global Initiative.

And, obviously New York has advantages over Davos: It's better for spouses, with more fun things to do when off-the-clock.

The crowd is also diversifying along with our global challenges — from climate activists and investors to sovereign wealth funds, a shift that is now also attracting the attention of Wall Street.

Food security is set to be this year's unavoidable issue, thanks to Russia's war in Ukraine and because it's at the nexus of so many other problems.

On Global Insider's radar:

NEW UNGA WEEK EVENT ACTION IN 2022 

Instead of the all-day Bloomberg Global Business Forum — which existed in every nook and cranny of the Plaza Hotel in pre-Covid times, creating a logistical nightmare because the security details of leaders alone were enough to fill the hotel's spaces — Bloomberg is this year opting for a pared-back presence at hotel on Central Park, at The Earthshot Prize Innovation Summit featuring Prince William, and Global Insider hears, possibly Janet Yellen.

In part, Bloomberg was filling the gap left by the Clinton Global Initiative shutting down in 2017. CGI will be back with a vengeance this year over the course of three days (Sept. 19-21) with speakers including New York's Mayor Eric Adams; and a very Davos-y crowd that ranges from Queen Rania of Jordan to Matt Damon , World Central Kitchen's José Andrés, philanthropist and media entrepreneur Laurene Powell Jobs and BlackRock's Larry Fink; plus global leaders like the WHO's Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and WTO's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. It'll be hard to show up and not be blinded by the star power.

That means CGI is competing head-to-head with the Concordia Summit, which is also running three days of programming Sept. 19-21.

Goals House is back to Tavern on the Green in Central Park this year, and has the most extensive programming : running from Sept. 18-22.

Leaders on Purpose CEO Summit takes place Sept. 22 at the Javits Center in partnership with Meridian Center.

KICK-OFF: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will get the ball rolling with publication of their "Goalkeepers Report" Sept. 13, tracking progress against the U.N. 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Focus will be on food security and gender equality. Anthony Scaramucci's SALT conference runs Sept. 12-14.

OFFICIAL PROGRAM: The week will kick off with the excitingly titled " Third SDG Moment of the Decade of Action" — a virtual event convened by U.N. Secretary General António Guterres on Sept. 19. But the biggest moment is what Guterres is framing as a " Summit of the Future " which will produce a "Pact for the Future."

Leaders' speeches start on Sept. 20 and will last for five to seven days (that's not a misprint, there are around 200 speeches to get through and it all depends on how long the leaders speak for — given they never stick to allocated time).

"LONG-TERMISM" AT THE U.N.: Mark Leon Goldberg takes us for a deep dive into the foreign policy implications of long-termism — the strategic thinking that will inform the above-mentioned Summit of the Future, which Goldberg says is an "increasingly fashionable moral philosophy." It's all here in his latest Global Dispatches podcast episode.

BY THE NUMBERS — CORPORATE ACTIVISM GOES GLOBAL: Morning Consult has launched a tracking tool designed to help executives "chart a path" through "a rising tide of ethical consumerism, geopolitical risk and corporate activism." More in this memo from Sonnet Frisbie, the firm's head of geopolitical risk analysis.

CONGRESS MEETS WORLD

UYGHUR SECONDARY SANCTIONS PUSH: U.S. Sens. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) introduced companion legislation to Rep. Jim Banks ' (R-Ind.) bill, the Sanctioning Supporters of Slave Labor Act, to expand the current scope of sanctions on those committing human rights abuses against Uyghurs. The bill would impose secondary sanctions on those that do business with and provide support for foreign entities who have been sanctioned for their Uyghur human rights abuse.

FOREIGN DONATIONS LOOPHOLE: Rubio said in an emailed statement that he also plans to introduce legislation requiring organizations accepting political donations to obtain a customer verification value number as a condition of donating.

Such data collection is now standard practice from e-commerce retailers, but Rubio accuses ActBlue — which raised nearly $4 billion for progressive candidates and causes in the 2020 election cycle — of deliberately not collecting CVV numbers , potentially allowing illegal foreign donations to make their way into progressive coffers.

GLOBETROTTERS

KLEPTOWATCH

BEHIND BARS: Former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has begun his 12-year prison sentence after losing his final appeal. The top court unanimously upheld his conviction over a multibillion-dollar graft scandal linked to the state fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad. His wife, Rosmah Mansor, is next up on money laundering and tax evasion charges.

12 IS A POPULAR NUMBER: An Argentine federal prosecutor has requested a 12-year prison sentence for Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the country's former president and current vice president, on corruption charges related to public works.

MOVES

NEW IRI EXECUTIVE TEAM: The International Republican Institute team is still led by President Daniel Twining, with Kimber Shearer taking over as executive vice president from Dan Fisk. Hallam Ferguson returns to IRI as vice president for global operations, and Antonia Ferrier joins as vice president for external affairs.

PASSED: Mauro Petriccione, head of the European Union's climate department since 2018, and chief negotiator of landmark trade deals with Canada, Japan and Vietnam, has died aged 65. John Podesta , Center for American Progress chair, said "he was a wonderful compatriot in the global fight against climate change. … I'm shocked and saddened by his untimely passing, and he will be sorely missed on the international stage." Petriccione served as an EU official since 1987.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
BRAIN FOOD

THREAD: How 14 wolves radically changed the entire ecosystem of Yellowstone National Park (for the better), by Clayton Forrester. 

PHOTOGRAPHY: A Chance to Breathe : Rohingya refugees photographed by Rohingya refugees Omal Khair, Dil Kayas and Azimul Hasson, published by FotoEvidence and DohaDebates. Pre-order here.

PODCAST AND REVIEW: Meghan Markle's podcast series Archetypes — but is the Duchess interviewing powerful women? Or herself?

NEWSLETTER: Tomas Pueyo delivers A Brief History of Portugal : how a country of 2 million dominated the seas and slave trade, pioneering triangular trade routes between Europe, Africa and the Americas.

BOOK: The Disappearance of Josef Mengele, by Olivier Guez. Jordana Fichtenbaum calls it an "extremely well-researched" tale that "shows in detail the 'Ratline' of how Nazis escaped to South America" following the collapse of the Third Reich.

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker and producer Hannah Farrow. 

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