News: The top 3 storylines to watch this week

Monday, July 18, 2022

The top 3 storylines to watch this week

Jul 18, 2022

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By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer speaks on student debt as AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler (R) and President of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Lee Saunders (L) listen at the AFL-CIO.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is hoping to tee up a floor vote as soon as Tuesday to start the process of moving forward a narrower version of the USICA that many Dems and Republicans wanted to pass. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

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DRIVING THE DAY

THE WEEK — Today: VP KAMALA HARRIS speaks at the NAACP National Convention. … Tuesday: Maryland holds its primary elections, and the three-day Aspen Security Forum kicks off in Colorado. … Wednesday: The House Judiciary Committee marks up a bill to revive an assault weapons ban. … Thursday: The Senate parliamentarian is expected to hear Byrd bath arguments over Senate Dems' plans to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices, and the House Jan. 6 committee gavels in a primetime hearing at 8 p.m. … Friday: DONALD TRUMP and MIKE PENCE hold dueling rallies in Arizona.

PENCE VS. TRUMP, ARIZONA EDITION — "Former Vice President Mike Pence is endorsing Republican KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON in the Arizona governor's race, pitting himself against Donald Trump in a primary that is emerging as a proxy fight between the former president and Republicans who resisted his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results," Alex Isenstadt reports.

"It represents the latest breach in the relationship between Trump and Pence, and it's the second time the two have collided in a primary. And Pence is slated to campaign for Robson on Friday — creating a dramatic split-screen moment opposite Trump, who is set to hold a rally for his endorsed candidate, former local TV news anchor KARI LAKE, the same day."

THE WEEK'S TOP THREE STORYLINES TO WATCH:

1. The Jan. 6 committee's primetime (possible) finale: The panel will hold its eighth hearing Thursday night, using an 8 p.m. slot to explore what Trump did during the 187 minutes before he told his supporters rioting at the Capitol to go home.

Will this actually be the committee's final hearing? Our colleague Nicholas Wu writes in:

"Committee members have stressed [this is] the conclusion of just 'this series' of presentations. … Members of the panel have still reserved the right to hold more hearings, especially as new witnesses come forward, and committee members have talked about holding even more hearings to tee up their final report in the fall. They're still investigating as they stage the hearings — this Tuesday, they're expecting a tranche of information from the Secret Service on the agency's missing text messages after the select panel subpoenaed the Secret Service last Friday. …

"The tricky part for the committee is going to be how to balance the drafting of their report with the intake of new information. Expect them to keep on working and flexing their investigative muscles, even during the normally-quiet August recess. Thursday certainly won't be the last we'll hear from the Jan. 6 committee."

— Related read: Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney take a look at how a possible criminal probe of Trump by the Department of Justice could complicate the many other cases it's pursuing connected to January 6, because "defense attorneys for hundreds of defendants could demand access to much of the evidence against Trump as part of the discovery process. … One potential concern, especially given the large number of Jan. 6 cases: Details of a Trump-focused probe could be leaked by defense attorneys or even defendants themselves."

The timeline: "Even if investigations into Trump and his inner circle are expanded — a slew of grand jury subpoenas and search warrants in recent weeks suggest prosecutors are circling his allies — the momentous decision about whether to charge Trump with a crime is months away, if not longer."

2. Reconciliation in the Senate: On Thursday, the Senate parliamentarian is expected to have so-called Byrd bath arguments on Democrats' plan to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

While a slimmed-down version of a slimmed-down version of a slimmed-down version of the original vast reconciliation proposal isn't what Democrats wanted, prescription drug reform is something the party has been promising for years and is, crucially, popular with just about everyone in the party — including Sen. JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.). But this process has been messy since the beginning, so it's possible another Manchin-sized wrench gets thrown into the gears.

3. The CHIPS/USICA showdown: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is hoping to tee up a floor vote as soon as Tuesday "to begin the process to move forward a limited competition bill that would include — at a minimum — the emergency funding for CHIPS," per Schumer's office.

This would be a much narrower version of the USICA (aka the China competitiveness bill) that many Dems and Republicans wanted to pass, which has stalled out amid Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL's threats to withdraw GOP support while Democrats continue to pursue a reconciliation deal. FWIW, we're told it's possible that additional pieces of the competition bill could still make it in.

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OUTRAGE IN UVALDE — "Uvalde report: 376 officers but 'egregiously poor' decisions," by AP's Jake Bleiberg and Paul Weber: "Nearly 400 law enforcement officials rushed to a mass shooting at a Uvalde elementary school, but 'egregiously poor decision-making' resulted in more than an hour of chaos before the gunman who took 21 lives was finally confronted and killed, according to a damning investigative report released Sunday."

FED UP — The Fed looks likely to increase interest rates another 0.75 percentage points at the central bank's next meeting this month, though a full point increase isn't out of the question after last week's stinging inflation report, reports WSJ's Nick Timiraos. "A 0.75-point rate rise could allow officials to signal their ability to maintain that historically aggressive pace if demand and inflation stay hot or to moderate their increases if they see progress in slowing inflation and economic activity."

QUOTE OF THE DAY — "If somebody says, 'You'll leave when we don't have Covid anymore,' then I will be 105. I think we're going to be living with this."

That's what ANTHONY FAUCI told our Sarah Owermohle in a wide-ranging interview that touched on "his legacy, the hard truths about the country's pandemic response and his desire to calm the politicization wracking the country."

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PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN'S MONDAY: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9:30 a.m.

HARRIS' MONDAY:

9:45 a.m.: The VP will depart D.C. for Atlantic City, N.J., where she'll speak at the 113th NAACP National Convention at Atlantic City Convention Center at 11:30 a.m.

1:05 p.m.: Harris will hold an abortion roundtable with New Jersey state legislators.

2:50 p.m.: Harris will head back to Washington.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 3 p.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up NINA WANG's judicial nomination to the U.S. District Court for Colorado, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m.

HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ROE BEING OVERTURNED? JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 7/21: Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade , abortion policy is in the hands of the states and, ultimately, voters. Join POLITICO national political correspondent Elena Schneider for a Women Rule "ask me anything" conversation featuring a panel of reporters from our politics and health care teams who will answer your questions about how the court's decision could play out in different states, its impact on the midterms and what it means for reproductive rights in the U.S. going forward. SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AND REGISTER HERE.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Artem Dmitriev gives the last salute to his daughter Liza, 4-year-old girl killed by Russian attack, in Vinnytsia, Ukraine.

Artem Dmitriev grieves his daughter Liza, a 4-year-old girl killed by Russian attack, in Vinnytsia, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 17. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

ONE THING SENATE DEMS SEEM TO AGREE ON — Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) is getting backup in her reelection bid from an unusual, if not unexpected, source: Senate Democrats.

Burgess Everett reports this morning that with Murkowski's strongest opposition in the ranked-choice election coming from Trump-backed conservative KELLY TSHIBAKA, "Murkowski's Senate Democratic fan club reflects the same crossover clout that helped her quash a tea-party rival 12 years ago — and the fact that many conservatives will support Tshibaka anyway."

Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.): "She's an overall badass. The Senate needs more leaders like Lisa, and I'm proud to support her."

Sen. BRIAN SCHATZ (D-Hawaii): "I think it would be a loss for Alaska if she were no longer serving in the Senate."

Murkowski on Dems: "I hope they're going to have my back. Just as I hope the Republicans would have my back."

THE ART OF THE THIEL — JIM LAMON and BLAKE MASTERS' other opponents in the Arizona GOP Senate primary are increasingly attacking Masters for his support from PETER THIEL, trying to portray the billionaire as a Big Tech boogeyman, Insider's Bryan Metzger reports . (Of course, that's an ideological stance toward Silicon Valley that Thiel, in fact, shares.) "Lamon, a self-funder, also frequently emphasizes the differences in the source of their respective campaigns' largesse; while Masters owes much of his campaign's viability to Thiel's money, Lamon has largely self-financed his own campaign."

SUNSHINE STATE DISPATCH — If it's an election year, it's time for Florida Democrats to sound the alarm about their prospects in November. 2022 is no exception, as a string of recent losses (and subsequently gun-shy donors) have created "a sense of fatalism among state Democrats," Gary Fineout reports from Tampa.

Dems tell him they see Rep. VAL DEMINGS' bid against GOP Sen. MARCO RUBIO as their best chance to win statewide this year, but they're mostly trying to put a positive spin on a worrisome outlook for the party.

— Rep. CHARLIE CRIST's campaign to take down Gov. RON DESANTIS, meanwhile, is deploying the Biden 2020 playbook — and it's landed him in the lead in the Democratic primary, CNN's Steve Contorno reports from Miami Gardens. "[H]e's running on reestablishing civility, a bet that enough independent and moderate GOP voters are exhausted by the divisive politics of the incumbent Republican administration. Crist is playing up his bipartisan background — at times, even leaning into his Republican roots — in hopes voters will rally around a familiar face with a track record of working across the aisle."

— Storyline to keep an eye on: "Kids' coronavirus vaccines are hard to find in Fla. Many blame DeSantis," by WaPo's Lori Rozsa

PAIN AT THE PUMP — In Georgia, gas prices have started to fall but residents aren't feeling much pocketbook relief thanks to high costs everywhere — and they're not thrilled with Biden, NBC's Lauren Egan reports . One longtime Dem voter says she's planning to sit out November's midterms: "Biden ain't doing anything to help with the cost of living."

2024 WATCH — "Youngkin shifts Virginia right, raising profile inside GOP," by AP's Sarah Rankin

ABORTION FALLOUT

WHAT'S NEXT ON THE RIGHT — SBA Pro-Life America is advising Hill Republicans to speak out about abortion — not leave the issue all up to state lawmakers — and not to push for the most extreme restrictions, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports. The SBA memo recommends against talking about a national abortion ban or fragmenting along several different legislative axes. It also advises prioritizing efforts to support mothers, not just unborn children, and not criminalizing their actions specifically. The memo

THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — Location tracking in many states that are criminalizing abortion is making abortion rights advocates worried about how law enforcement might deploy the tool, Alfred Ng reports this morning. "It wouldn't be hard to do, because states across the country are already using this kind of data for other investigations. And a POLITICO analysis found that many of the states that have criminalized abortion have relied increasingly on location data in recent years to probe crimes including robbery and sexual assault."

THE REAL-WORLD CONSEQUENCES — "After New Abortion Laws, Some Patients Have Trouble Obtaining Miscarriage Treatment," by NYT's Pam Belluck

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BEYOND THE BELTWAY

LAST NIGHT'S MASS SHOOTING — "Gunman kills three in Indiana mall before being shot by armed bystander," Reuters

THE NEW ACTIVISTS — Moms for Liberty, the group of advocates fighting for conservative priorities in local schools, held its first national gathering in Tampa this weekend, where they planned efforts to "elect their own candidates to school boards, pass state legislation and diminish the influence of teachers unions," NBC's Tyler Kingkade reports.

Social emotional learning and even school mental health programs earned the ire of the crowd, which also heard from DeSantis and Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.). "Aside from a few mentions, there was little talk of Congress or the presidency. Instead, speakers encouraged attendees to put pressure on local officials."

TRUMP CARDS

BIG INVESTIGATION — CNN has a major deep dive into STEVE BANNON and how his "War Room" podcast has unleashed a wave of democracy-threatening adherents around the country, as Rob Kuznia, Bob Ortega and Audrey Ash report. "The show is a hefty contributor to a grassroots surge that is sending political neophytes to city councils, school boards, and state legislatures, as well as to the polls to oversee voting. … But unlike other firebrand personalities, Bannon isn't just tapping fear and resentment for ratings or money; he uses his show as a strategic vehicle."

9/11 FAMILIES CALL OUT TRUMP OVER SAUDI GOLF DEAL — The LIV Golf tournament backed by Saudi Arabia and set to take place at Trump's Bedminster, N.J., golf course this month earned a rebuke Sunday from the families of 9/11 victims, who asked Trump in a letter to cancel the event, NYT's Azi Paybarah reports. "It is incomprehensible to us that a former president of the United States would cast our loved ones aside for personal financial gain," they wrote.

WAR IN UKRAINE

LATEST FROM KYIV — Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY sacked the country's head of domestic intelligence and prosecutor general Sunday, a big change for his wartime administration. More from Christopher Miller

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PLAYBOOKERS

Craig McNamara, son of Robert McNamara, has a new book out titled "Because Our Fathers Lied" — and in farming, he has "tried to bury all his grief and fear and confusion into the soil."

OUT AND ABOUT — Ashley Allison celebrated her 40th birthday Saturday at a Virginia home on the Potomac River, with dancing, swimming and food from local people of color- or women-owned vendors. Her actual birthday is next week, when she'll be in Italy celebrating. SPOTTED: Paulette Aniskoff, Alencia Johnson, Cameron Trimble, Heather Foster, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Trey Baker, Greisa Rosas Martinez, Maurice Mitchell, Adrienne Elrod and Ali Rubin.

— Jeremy and Robyn Bash hosted a Paris-themed farewell for Parita Shah and Pete Selfridge on Saturday night. Guests danced to hip-hop tunes with a DJ, sipped signature St Germain Paris cocktails and veuve clicquot, and dined on French cuisine: salad Nicoise, crème brûlée and macarons. SPOTTED: Lloyd and Ann Hand, Capricia Marshall, Nate Tibbits, Tammy Haddad, Tim Hartz, Jennifer Close, Missy Owens, Kenny and Jessica Thompson, Scott Mulhauser, Kara Carscaden, Alex Hornbrook, Marc Adelman, Adrienne Elrod, Patrick Steel and Lee Satterfield, Katie McBreen, Matt McNally, Carlos Elizondo and Mark Dumas, John McCarthy, Sabrina Singh, Ali Rubin, Lauren Mason, Philippe Reines, Jonathan Capehart and Nick Schmit, Singaporean Ambassador Ashok Kumar Mirpuri, Monaco Ambassador Maguy Maccario Doyle, Tom Sietsema and Ed Lichorat, Jessica Dean, Michael O'Neil and Stephanie Sutton, Shripal and Meg Shah, Carolyn Wu, Maju and Julie Varghese, Amy Dacey, Shannon Gilson and Ted Chiodo.

STAFFING UP — Heather Barmore is now deputy assistant USTR for digital. She most recently was digital director at the Interior Department, and is a Biden campaign alum.

TRANSITION — Christopher Buki is joining West Front Strategies as SVP. He most recently was at Fresenius Medical Care North America, and is a House GOP alum.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Nate Jones, FOIA director at WaPo, and Kyla Sommers, FOIA digital editor at American Oversight, got married Saturday in Leadville, Colorado, the highest city in the U.S., on Saturday. (Other details redacted.) Pic … SPOTTED: Ruth Berry, Tom Blanton, Kate Bukowski, Erika Gudmundson, Hank Kilgore, Hailey Ray, Brian Steblay and Caitlyn Stephenson.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: DOT's Julia Krieger … WaPo's Olivier Knox … CBS' Carol Ross Joynt … NBC's Gadi Schwartz … Chris Marroletti … David Vandivier … Suzanne Ruecker … Teddy Tanzer … John Sobel of Jenner & Block … Billy McBeath of American Crossroads and Senate Leadership Fund … Pepper Natonski … Evan Ross of Purple Strategies … Kate Balcerzak … former Reps. T.J. Cox (D-Calif.), Mark Souder (R-Ind.), Bill Delahunt (D-Mass.) and Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) … former Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) … Anne Kelley … Matt Hite of GPA Midstream Association (5-0) … Steve Forbes … Christina Ives of Sena Kozar Strategies … David Kamin … Lizzie Ivry Cooper of EMILY's List … Alice Rhee … Fox Business Network's Jackie DeAngelis … Rebecca Bernhard … Justin Veillon

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