News: Summer of hell

Monday, July 18, 2022

Summer of hell

Jul 18, 2022

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By Ryan Heath

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I'm back from a week's vacation in Europe and Turkey: What did I miss? No one resigned, did they?

My top three political takeaways:

— The Continent is still terrible at cooling its homes and offices, endangering lives, but it has a more sophisticated debate about the role of climate change in its heat waves.

— A midterms message for Democrats from Britain's head-spinning Conservative leadership race: It's the cost of living, stupid. Everything else is a distraction.

— The strong U.S. dollar, now at parity with the euro, isn't as useful for American tourists as you might expect. In Turkey, virtually everything related to tourism was pegged at U.S. dollar prices.

And just for fun: After a lot of spying with binoculars on superyacht users (we went sailing on a non-superyacht), including one selling for $125 million , my conclusion is that they don't have a lot of fun. The staff are well-dressed servants who are constantly busy (definite Below Deck vibes), but the guests don't seem to do much except make occasional Instagram posts (think bikini-clad Titantic-style bow moments), leaving incredible facilities unused. And they dress badly.

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Storylines to Watch for This Week

SECURITY — ASPEN FORUM KICKS OFF: You can watch many of the conversations live online, including with former U.S. national security advisers Stephen Hadley, Thomas Donilon and Condoleezza Rice. Watch here, starting Tuesday 7:50 p.m. ET / 5:50 p.m Mountain Time. Global Insider will supply analysis and interviews starting Wednesday and my colleagues at National Security Daily will begin special coverage Tuesday.

ITALY — PRIME MINISTER MARIO DRAGHI FACES A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE on Wednesday. This follows his attempted resignation last week. If Draghi loses, Italy will likely be headed for an election in September. In latest polling, the far-right Brothers of Italy party leads with 23 percent, according to POLITICO's Poll of Polls, virtually tied with the center-left Democratic Party at 22 percent.

UKRAINE — GRAIN DEAL CLOSE: U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, the EU's chief diplomat Josep Borrell and Russian negotiators are saying roughly the same thing — that a deal could be finalized this week.

But watch for a Russia gas cutoff: The original Nordstream gas pipeline has been undergoing annual repairs and is due to reopen Thursday. The best way for Moscow to mess with the West this week would be to allow grain exports, while cutting off gas.

Zelenskyy fires security chief and top prosecutor: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the head of Ukraine's security agency and the country's prosecutor general, citing 651 collaboration and treason cases had been opened against law enforcement officials, and a claim that more than 60 former employees are working against Ukraine in Russian-occupied areas.

U.K. — ANOTHER PRIME MINISTER CONTENDER TO BITE THE DUST TODAY: It's most likely that centrist Tom Tugendhat will be eliminated. That could deliver the other centrist candidate Rishi Sunak enough votes to automatically qualify for the two-person runoff vote among Conservative Party members. It's still unclear which candidate from the party's right-flank will make the runoff. Penny Mordaunt remains the slight favorite there.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

GLOBAL HEAT WAVES: We often get lost in the most dramatic imagery (wildfires, anyone) and deaths that can accompany a heat wave. That shouldn't lead you to overlook the cumulative and secondary effects. We're seeing more heat waves, which also last longer — and this week hundreds of cities are under some kind of emergency order or restriction around the world. That also undermines economic output (as we risk recessions), risks reducing food production (during a food crisis) and demonstrates that our energy crisis isn't just about how folks heat homes in winter without Russian fossil fuels, but how we cool homes in summer. Bloomberg has a great overview here.

Positive change: Your host is just back from Europe where climate change is a leading discussion point connected to the continent's more intense and frequent fires, and Britain's first-ever "red extreme" heat warning.

SRI LANKA — LAWMAKERS HAVE BEGUN TO CHOOSE A NEW LEADER: The lawmakers will vote Wednesday if more than one nomination is received by Tuesday. In a televised statement on Friday, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is acting as the country's interim president after Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country hounded by protesters, promised to propose constitutional changes that curb presidential powers and strengthen Parliament.

MIDDLE EAST — WHAT DID BIDEN ACHIEVE, AT WHAT PRICE? A fist bump — of all things — with an autocratic butcher isn't a great look for a leader who preaches democracy and human rights. But Biden's Middle East expedition was never about rights: It was the entry price for getting beyond his G-7 democratic comfort zone, which is ultimately about keeping Russia and China at bay. More from my colleagues Alex Ward and Jonathan Lemire.

What else Biden can get over the longer-term? A joint pledge with Israel to halt Iran's nuclear progress is nothing new, and micro-increases in Saudi oil production won't tame inflation.

OPINION — HOW AN EXPANDED BRICS COULD CHALLENGE THE G-7: Abishur Prakash, a Canadian "geopolitical futurist" writes in the wake of last month's underwhelming G-7 and surprisingly well-coordinated BRICS summits, about how the G-7 is vulnerable to challenge if democratic leaders can't find ways to work with adversaries in forums like the G-20.

U.K. — BORIS JOHNSON'S BIGGEST SCANDAL MAY BE AHEAD: It can be hard to know when to dive in and out of Johnson's many dramas. But given the level of fury he has generated in opposition parties, and that of the five candidates to replace him, none will allow him back in their Cabinet, he will be hounded when finally out of office.

Johnson's unexplained KGB meeting: Investigative journalist Carole Cadwalladr, who did much to expose Facebook's Cambridge Analytica breaches of trust, and who first proved Johnson's meeting in the aftermath of a 2018 NATO summit with "an ex-KGB officer (Alexander Lebedev) whose son he later ennobled," writes "it's not just that we need answers. Our NATO allies need answers. Canada — one of the Five Eyes nations that shares intelligence with us — has sanctioned Alexander Lebedev . Why? And more to the point: why haven't we?"

GERMANY — ELITES HEART GREENS: Germany's conservative FAZ newspaper asked 350 elite business leaders and top politicians across the spectrum which minister is doing well. The near-unanimous response: 92 percent said Robert Habeck , the vice chancellor and minister for the economy, climate and energy, from the Greens. Fellow Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock won 91 percent support. Compare that to the 43 percent support for Finance Minister Christian Lindner, from the liberal Free Democratic Party.

Who is the chancellor again? Asked which of the three parties dominate the governing coalition, the responses were telling: The Greens got 73 percent, while the Social Democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz notched a mere 10 percent. Just 22 percent labeled Scholz a "strong" chancellor, while 70 percent said he was "weak."

FRANCE – PARLIAMENT DEBATES INFLATION COUNTERMEASURES: A mix of price caps (energy), discounts (fuel), wage and welfare indexation, and tax exemptions (overtime work). More in POLITICO's Paris Playbook.

Knock-on effect: If rich countries keep failing to deliver climate finance support to the global South — whilst reimposing fuel subsidies — they're not going to be able to continue arguing against those types of subsidies, which are still common in the developing world, at global climate conferences.

TECH REALITY CHECK — ARE THE UBER FILES A FRANCES HAUGEN MOMENT? Global Insider says no, but has to declare an interest. While working as an EU civil servant back in 2014, your host was in the thick of efforts by Uber — including direct efforts by Uber Files leaker Mark MacGann — to muscle aside taxi lobby interests and allow Uber free reign to provide services.

There's been a range of fairly predictable backlash to Uber's cowboy lobbying and legal tactics, but this isn't Uber's Frances Haugen moment, for four reasons:

Democracy wasn't and isn't at risk because of Uber's recklessness, which we already knew about to a significant extent via scandals surrounding fired former CEO Travis Kalanick
Labor regulation efforts are already underway: These leaks may boost those efforts, but they aren't triggering them.
There's no clear hero in this fight: Taxi industries tend to be well-organized cartels in most of the world, who themselves attempted to block Uber from being allowed to operate in many jurisdictions, and their drivers are exploited in similar ways to Uber drivers.
There's no sky-high profit at risk, because Uber has never made money.

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GLOBETROTTERS

PASSED — Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Stimson Center and an international peace and security advocate, passed away at his home in Charlottesville, Va., this weekend.

BLACKFACE AT THE OPERA: American soprano Angel Blue has turned down her starring role in "La Traviata" at Verona Arena, because Anna Netrebko recently wore blackface to play the lead in a production of "Aida" there.

GALACTICAL HEARTBEAT: Does a distant star have its own FM radio station, or is something else up? Scientists set out their findings in Nature.

BEATING PUTIN BY HOLIDAYING IN GREECE: Germans are being told to prepare for a winter energy rations and stoppages — ministers are even urging them to shower less. But instead of reminding Germans of suggestions that Athens should sell off Greek islands to deal with its 2010 bankruptcy, Greek Tourism Minister Vassilis Kikilias invited Germans to hibernate in his country, offering "Greek hospitality, mild weather and quality services." Kikilias told Germany's top-selling Bild newspaper. "We will be here waiting for you."

WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO GO ON A $200 PICNIC? If a superyacht is out of reach, and summer isn't a verb for you, try this instead.

BRAIN FOOD

PODCAST — How has Ukraine changed warfare? The Economist's Anne McElvoy and Shashank Joshi ask Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain's chief of the defense staff.

CANADA — A PODCAST FOR EVERYONE: My Canadian colleague Maura Forrest listened to every new podcast from a Canadian politician so you don't have to. Here's the 60-second in case you want to.

Uncommons with Nate Erskine-Smith: Have you guys heard I'm a maverick? Drug decriminalization? Love it. TRIPS waiver? Do it.

Resuming Debate with Garnett Genuis: This is a very serious podcast about very serious things, may I present you a whole hour on William Jennings Bryan.

Blue Skies with Erin O'Toole : I'm still here! (he was the leader of the Canada's Conservatives).

Moving the Needle on Wicked Problems with Ratna Omidvar: The world is full of problems and I am tackling all of them.

No Nonsense with Pamela Wallin : The Canadian senator turns the tables and interviews folks like Paul Wells on the process of political journalism, and other people she's always wanted to meet.

The Blueprint with Jamie Schmale: This is Canada's red meat Conservative podcast, which cannot have a summer break because Canada is never safe from Liberal destruction. In the House with Ryan Williams: Come for the video about "Justinflation."

Points of Order with Kody Blois: I heart Nova Scotia.

Special thanks America Hernandez, Nahal Toosi and Elise Labott for taking the helm last week.

Thanks to editor John Yearwood, Florian Eder, Maura Forrest and producer Hannah Farrow.