Monday, July 18, 2022

👀Keep an Eye on These Trends as Inflation Cools Off

Good morning. Retail spending is up, but it's also slowing. That's a sign that the economy may be...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Retail spending is up, but it's also slowing. That's a sign that the economy may be slowing down, and with it, inflation. Two trends are also showing signs that inflation may have already peaked. Gas prices have come down significantly in the past few weeks. And companies are starting to put excess inventory on sale.

The biggest sign came from Amazon (AMZN). During last week's Prime Day, the company had some of its largest discounts ever, some as high as 79% off. And while many retailers will often raise prices before showing a discount, this marked some of the steepest deals yet issued by the retailer.

Traders should be mindful of this data, and be wary of investing in companies where a slowdown in sales or steep discounts are likely – as both will hit profit margins and lead to some sizeable losses in the next few quarters.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 31,288.26 +2.15%
S&P 3,863.16 +1.92%
NASDAQ 11,452.42 +1.79%
*As of market close
Stocks moved higher on Friday, with all three indices closing near highs of the day.
Oil rose 1.8 percent, closing at $97.53 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.1 percent, last going for $1,704 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies trended higher, with Bitcoin at $21,109 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Don't Bet Against Today's Tech Winners in Today's Fearful Markets
The stock market is in a downtrend, and that will likely continue until the Federal Reserve stops its current policy of raising interest rates. This downtrend is throwing out great companies along with weaker ones, and has hit the tech space fairly hard.

That's creating one of the best buying opportunities for investors in tech in years. That's especially true with companies that can still deliver on growth in a slowing economy.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
Christopher Morris, CEO at Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY), recently bought 33,400 shares. The buy increased his holdings by nearly 226 percent, and came to a total price of just over $1.02 million.

Company insiders have a mixed history with shares over the past year, with a number of executive buys of shares. However, some non-C-suite executives have been sellers of shares in the past year. Over the past three years, company insiders have mostly been sellers.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Annaly Capital Management (NLY)
Shares of mortgage REIT Annaly Capital Management (NLY) have slid 27 percent in the past year, as interest rates have started to rise and the housing market has started to slow. One trader sees the possibility for a further drop.

That's based on the September $5 puts. With 60 days until expiration, 21,750 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 378, for a 58-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.10 to make the trade.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Retail Sales Rise, But at a Slowing Rate

Retail sales rose 1.0 percent in the past month, according to the latest consumer spending data. That's a slowdown from prior months, and a sign that the economy is continuing to cool. It may also indicate that consumers are cutting back right now due to the higher prices being imposed by inflation.
Traders Bet On 100 Basis Point Hike

Following the latest inflation read last week, traders are now betting that the Fed will raise rates by a full point. The last time rates rose that much in a single meeting occurred back in 1984. The move seems plausible based on inflation continuing to show a rise even after the interest rate hiking cycle has begun.
Amazon Expands Drone Delivery to Texas

After early testing in California, retailer Amazon (AMZN) is expanding its drone delivery service to College Station, Texas. The city is the hometown of Texas A&M University, and the company has a number of partnerships with the school and city.
Solar Stocks Drop as Climate Bill Talks Sink

Solar stocks had a hefty decline on Friday. The move occurred after Senator Joe Manchin stated that he would not support increased spending to address climate change. That adds to some policy uncertainty in the space, and, combined with a slowing economy, may weigh on these stocks for some time.
Celsius Owes $4.7 Billion to Users

Cryptocurrency lending platform Celsius owes its users $4.7 billion, according to the company's latest filings. The company has a $1.2 billion deficit at present, and has entered bankruptcy protection as cryptocurrency prices have collapsed and the company's business model was unable to handle the swift decline.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
13.854%
STT  9.525%
NFLX 7.381%
PENN 7.05%
BAC 7.003%
BOTTOM
CEG 3.781%
STZ 2.554%
KHC 2.103%
NEE 2.028%
DG 1.937%

Quote of the Day
…geopolitical tension, high inflation, waning consumer confidence, the uncertainty about how high rates have to go and the never-before-seen quantitative tightening and their effects on global liquidity ... are very likely to have negative consequences on the global economy sometime down the road,
- Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO, on why the US economy is likely in a recession and why there's likely further downside for the stock market in the months ahead.

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