| | | | | | | Presented By Babbel | | | | Axios World | | By Dave Lawler · Jul 18, 2022 | | Welcome back to Axios World. - Wherever you are in the world, I hope you enjoyed the weekend and are staying cool.
- Tonight's edition (1,766 words, 6½ minutes) takes off from Tehran.
New arrival? Subscribe. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Putin and Erdoğan head to Tehran |  | | | Putin meets Raisi (left) last month on the sidelines of a summit in Turkmenistan. Photo: Iranian Presidency Handout via Getty | | | | Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a rare foreign trip tomorrow for a summit in Tehran with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Why it matters: With Syria, Ukraine and oil on the agenda, all three leaders have something to gain from the summit. So, potentially, does the world, as Putin and Erdoğan will discuss a deal to resume grain exports from Ukraine that is reportedly close to completion but doesn't yet have Putin's explicit backing. A Kremlin spokesperson confirmed that Ukrainian grain exports would be on the agenda, while a senior Turkish official told Reuters that while "small problems" had to be ironed out, a deal would most likely be concluded this week between the UN, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine. - Context: Russia has blockaded Ukraine's major ports, which Ukraine has also mined to prevent Russian incursions by sea.
- That's left around 9% of the world's wheat supply and 44% of its sunflower oil blocked, contributing to a global food crisis.
- Russia is also a major grain exporter. According to the WSJ, Moscow has proposed additional grain deliveries to Iran, where bread prices have spiked, in exchange for help evading Western sanctions.
But while Iran and Russia are aligned in challenging Washington, the two sanctions-hit countries are increasingly competing economically, WSJ reports. - Iran has been selling its oil and other commodities at a discount for years, but Russia is now undercutting those prices and stealing some of Tehran's business in China and elsewhere in Asia.
- Stopping the price war is probably on top of Iran's agenda for the meeting, according to Eurasia Group's Cliff Kupchan.
- Russia, meanwhile, hopes to purchase hundreds of drones from Iran to use inside Ukraine, according to the White House. Iran denies that, but national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Saturday that Russian officials had made two trips to Iran this summer to inspect the drones.
It's probably not a coincidence that Putin's visit was announced just as President Biden was jetting off for his own Middle East trip, on which Biden raised the need to counter Chinese, Iranian and Russian influence. - Putin has sharply curtailed his foreign travel since the pandemic began. This will be only the fifth time he's left Russia since January 2020 and the second since Russia invaded Ukraine, following his visit to Central Asia last month.
- But it will be his third meeting with Raisi this year, in a signal of that relationship's growing significance at a time when Russia's links to the West are being actively severed.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has further complicated Putin's relationship with Erdogan, who has condemned Russia's invasion and supplied Ukraine with drones, but continued to play a spoiler role within NATO. |     | | | | | | 2. Zoom in: Erdoğan's incursion plans in Syria loom over the meeting |  | | | Putin and Erdoğan in Moscow in 2019. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images | | | | Putin, Erdoğan and Raisi will discuss the future of Syria as part of the Astana format, which excludes another key player — the U.S. Each pair of leaders will also meet bilaterally. - Erdoğan, who was on the opposite side of Syria's civil war as Russia and Iran, announced on June 1 a planned incursion to target Kurdish "terrorists" and solidify a buffer zone inside Syria, into which he hopes to deport Syrian refugees. He previously launched a major cross-border offensive in 2019.
- Iran, Russia and the U.S. have all urged Erdoğan to back off.
Between the lines: Erdoğan has coordinated previous moves into Syria in summits with Putin, but this time the Russian president is "throwing him in front of Raisi" as well, says Soner Cagaptay, a fellow at the Washington Institute and author of three books about Erdoğan. - It's still unclear whether or where Turkey will make its move, and striking different locations along the border would anger different foreign players, Cagaptay notes.
- Iran and Russia both backed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad during the civil war, and they wield significant leverage inside the country.
- Russia has maintained its operations in Syria since the invasion of Ukraine and recently vetoed a UN resolution to extend an aid corridor to the last rebel-held enclave there for a year (it was extended by six months last week).
What to watch: Cagaptay doubts that Erdoğan will fully detach the Syria issue from his efforts to mediate a major agreement between Russia and Ukraine. - "I think he will offer to Putin a grain corridor deal, administered by Turkey, that is at least in some form favorable to Russia in order to convince Putin to agree to a Turkish incursion," he says.
| | | | | | | | 3. Europe: Hot summer, cold winter |  | | | Macron (left) hosts MBZ on a hot day in Paris. Photo: Ludovic Marin//AFP via Getty | | | | Western European countries are enduring record-high temperatures in a heat wave that is likely to kill several thousand people, Axios' Andrew Freedman reports. The big picture: By increasing the global average surface temperature by about 1.2°C in the past century, human-induced climate change has dramatically boosted the odds of extreme heat events, along with their intensity and duration. Meanwhile… Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is in Algeria, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is in Azerbaijan and French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed today — all meetings related to the coming natural gas crunch in Europe. - Germany fears Russia will not turn the Nord Steam 1 pipeline back on when operations are set to resume on Thursday following scheduled maintenance.
- Russia has already reduced or severed gas flows to a dozen EU countries, per AP, and leaders including Macron have warned that Russia could shut off the tap ahead of the winter, when gas use increases.
- European countries are hoping to bridge what could be a difficult winter by diversifying their sources of gas and taking steps like lowering the thermostat.
| | | | | | | | A message from Babbel | | Learn a new language this summer with up to 60% off | | |  | | | | Babbel provides a flexible, fun and easy way to explore and understand a new language quickly, and with confidence. The strategy: The platform's speech recognition technology helps you improve your pronunciation and accent right from the start. Get conversational in just three weeks. | | | | | | Bonus: Where in the world? | | We're trying something a bit different today. How it works: I'll give you a series of clues, as well as the number of remaining countries to which they apply. Can you name one or both of the two countries I'm looking for? 1. Name ends in "ia" (39 countries left). 2. Not in Europe (24 countries left). 3. Population over 3 million (19 countries). 4. Landlocked (4 countries). 5. Southern hemisphere (2 countries). Scroll to the bottom for the answers. | | | | | | | | 4. Global news roundup |  | | | People cheer outside a polling station during the by-election in Punjab province in Lahore on July 17. Photo: Arif Ali/AFP via Getty Images | | | | Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath rounds up the latest headlines... 1. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan renewed calls for early national elections after his Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party pulled off a stunning win yesterday in by-elections in the country's most populous province. - PTI took control of the 371-member Punjab state assembly after winning 15 of the 20 seats up for grabs in a major blow to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's ruling coalition.
2. Sri Lanka's acting President Ranil Wickremesinghe declared a state of emergency yesterday ahead of Wednesday's vote in parliament to elect a new president. - The big picture: Sunday marked 100 days of protests that have rocked the crisis-hit country and forced a prime minister and president — both of the once-loved Rajapaksa family — to resign, Al Jazeera writes.
3. Ongoing violence across South Sudan is threatening to undo the country's fragile peace deal before presidential elections can be held, AP reports. - In June alone, over 200 people were killed in near-daily violence often blamed on rival militia groups, according to the Juba-based group CEPO.
- President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar are under pressure to put forth a timetable for elections.
4. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suspended the prosecutor general and the head of the country's spy agency — both longtime associates of his — questioning their leadership and accusing some within their departments of collaborating with Russia. - "As of today, 651 criminal proceedings have been registered regarding treason and collaboration activities of employees of prosecutor's offices, pretrial investigation bodies, and other law enforcement agencies," Zelensky said yesterday.
| | | | | | | | 5. Biden meets "pariah" |  | | | Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia Handout via Getty | | | | Two takes on the first bump seen 'round the world. "Critics of [Biden's] trip to [Saudi Arabia] get 2 things wrong. First, you have to deal with the leaders that exist, not ones you prefer. 2nd, what matters is not 'deliverables' but building a relationship [with] Saudi leaders that will allow the 2 countries to collaborate on Iran, Israel, oil, etc." — Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass"It's hard to overstate how much of a disaster Biden's Middle East trip was. Already the consequences are clear, and they'll be felt for years to come. We sent a message to two of the world's most repressive regimes, the UAE & Saudi Arabia, that they could get away with anything." — Brookings senior fellow Shadi Hamid | | | | | | | | 6. What to watch: U.K. leadership race down to 4 |  | | | Sunday's debate on ITV. From left to right: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt. Photo: Jonathan Hordle / ITV via Getty | | | | The fourth round of voting among Conservative MPs today saw former chancellor Rishi Sunak (115 votes) move close to clinching a spot in the party leadership runoff and Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Tom Tugendhat (31 votes) eliminated. What to watch: The race for second place is heating up after two TV debates and ahead of the last two rounds of voting tomorrow and Wednesday. - Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt (82 votes) finished second but actually lost one vote, while Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (71) and fellow right-winger Kemi Badenoch (58) gained 7 and 9, respectively.
- If Truss or Badenoch survives Tuesday's vote at the other's expense, they'll be well-positioned to consolidate the pro-Brexit right flank behind them and leapfrog Mordaunt into the final stage.
- The race will turn on its head after Wednesday, as all three of Sunak's remaining rivals are significantly more popular than him with the Conservative Party members who will ultimately pick the U.K.'s next prime minister.
| | | | | | | | 7. Stories we're watching |  | | | Indigenous women soccer players before a match in southern Peru. Photo: Carlos Mamani/AFP via Getty | | | - Biden-MBS fist bump blowback
- Biden says he raised Khashoggi; MBS cites U.S. "mistakes"
- Biden says U.S. "won't walk away" from Middle East
- China's economic growth slows due to lockdowns
- Mexico captures drug lord wanted in U.S.
- Pope calls Canada visit "pilgrimage of penance"
- Mexico races to save the vaquita marina
Quoted: "During the meeting, the Crown Prince noted that incidents like this can occur anywhere in the world, adding that in the same year other journalists were killed in other places. He mentioned that the US has also made mistakes, citing Abu Ghuraib in Iraq and others as examples." — Saudi-funded Al-Arabiya on what MBS told Biden about Khashoggi's murder, citing a Saudi official | | | | | | | | A message from Babbel | | Get conversational in a new language | | |  | | | | Babbel offers bite-sized, 10-minute language lessons developed by over 150 linguists and voiced by native speakers. The impact: Users report being able to have a basic conversation after just three weeks of daily practice using Babbel. For a limited time, get up to 60% off your subscription. | | | | Answers: Bolivia and Zambia |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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