| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
A new book about Janet Yellen says the Treasury secretary was an early internal dissenter on the size of the American Rescue Plan. | Andrew Harnik/AP Photo | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | JUST POSTED — Maureen Dowd on"Johnny and Amber: Trouble in Paradise" BIDEN'S GREAT DEBATE — In the first year of most new administrations there is often one great debate that comes to define the president's term. Sometimes it's obvious, other times it's only apparent in hindsight. In 1993, the great debate in BILL CLINTON's White House was about deficit reduction. Liberals thought he needn't pay too much attention, and moderates, who won, argued that attacking the deficit would appease bond traders, thus lowering interest rates and unleashing economic growth. "You mean to tell me that the success of the program and my reelection hinges on … a bunch of f---ing bond traders?" Clinton famously said at one key meeting. In 2001, the great debate in GEORGE W. BUSH's young presidency was over how serious he took the threat from al-Qaida before 9/11. The dominant foreign policy players in the Bush administration were skeptical of the Clinton-era focus on terrorism "All right, you've covered your ass now," Bush said dismissively after his intelligence briefer presented the famous "Bin Ladin Determined to Strike US" memo the month before the 9/11 attacks. In 2009, BARACK OBAMA's economic team made a fateful decision that its stimulus package could not be larger than a trillion dollars. They told themselves that they could always go back to Congress for more. They couldn't, and an anemic recovery followed. That experience set the stage for the subject of the great debate of JOE BIDEN's year one: inflation. Biden's economic advisers dismissed the prospects of inflation, then later argued that it was "transitory" and nothing to worry about. He ordered up a stimulus package much larger than the economy required. It had two devastating effects: It made inflation worse, and it created a political environment that torpedoed what most Democrats saw as the more important and ambitious legislative priorities of Build Back Better. "I want every American to know that I'm taking inflation very seriously and it's my top domestic priority," Biden said in May, more than a year after the American Rescue Package debate. Democrats will be arguing over who got what wrong on inflation for years to come. One of the questions about the Biden administration has been whether there was anyone inside offering the president an alternative economic argument about inflation. Evidence of a great debate between competing camps has been slim.
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | Now Bloomberg reports that in a new book about JANET YELLEN, the Treasury secretary was an early internal dissenter: "'Privately, Yellen agreed with Summers that too much government money was flowing into the economy too quickly,' writes OWEN ULLMANN, the book's author and a veteran Washington journalist, referring to former Treasury Secretary LAWRENCE SUMMERS, who severely criticized the size of the aid plan. … "Yellen's concern about inflation 'is why she had sought without success to scale back the $1.9 trillion relief plan by a third early in 2021 before Congress passed the enormous program,' wrote Ullmann, who had 'unfiltered access' to Yellen as he researched the book, according to publisher PublicAffairs." Yellen was recently the first top Biden official to admit she was incorrect in her 2021 public remarks on inflation. "I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take," she told CNN's Wolf Blitzer this week after he showed clips of her calling the problem "small" and "manageable." She continued, "There have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that have boosted energy and food prices and supply bottlenecks that have affected our economy badly that I didn't — at the time — didn't fully understand, but we recognize that now." This is starting to become a trend among economists.PAUL KRUGMAN recently admitted, "I called inflation wrong last year." This week he added that inflation was worsened by "an overlarge fiscal package at the start of Biden's presidency and the Fed's failure (which I shared) to recognize the problem early enough." Inflation is now the dominant issue of the midterms. Biden got it wrong. He has reoriented his White House around correcting that mistake. A big political question looming over the midterms is will the president now admit that publicly? Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your inflation mea culpas: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | 100 DAYS OF WAR IN UKRAINE … — Ukraine said its forces had recaptured 20% of the territory they lost in Sievierodonetsk, the key eastern city now at the fulcrum of Russia's assault. More from The Guardian — Two Reuters journalists were hurt and their driver killed as they were trying to reach Sievierodonetsk, per Reuters. — Russia is calling in the heads of U.S. news outlets in the country for a meeting Monday: "If the work of the Russian media — operators and journalists — is not normalized in the United States, the most stringent measures will inevitably follow," a Kremlin spokesperson warned, per Reuters. — The onslaught of Russian artillery has brought the war to "a demoralizing stage for many Ukrainian soldiers," WaPo's Siobhán O'Grady, Anastacia Galouchka and Paul Sonne report.
| | WEEKEND LISTEN: On this week's "Playbook Deep Dive," National Democratic Redistricting Committee President KELLY BURTON sits down with Ryan on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial to talk about Dems' strategy to fight GOP gerrymandering and how redrawing the congressional maps could determine power for the next decade.
"We cannot and should not distort or manipulate the maps for power on either side because it is part of the foundation of democracy," Burton told us. Listen to the episode here | | BIDEN'S SATURDAY — The president is in Rehoboth Beach, Del., and has nothing on his public schedule. VP KAMALA HARRIS' SATURDAY — The VP is in Los Angeles and has nothing on her public schedule.
| | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
|  Former Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro leaves a court hearing Friday after being indicted for contempt of Congress. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US 1. THE WIZARD OF OZ: DONALD TRUMP is the Republican Party's man behind the curtain, and he reigned supreme again (just barely) in Pennsylvania on Friday, as DAVID MCCORMICK conceded to MEHMET OZ in the Senate primary. McCormick's decision in the middle of a recount means Republicans can now unify against Democratic Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN. More from the Philly Inquirer … Bloomberg Businessweek's Felix Gillette on how Oz won with "one of the most audacious media strategies in American political history" Regarding Fetterman: Amid ongoing questions about his health, he released a letter from his cardiologist — unusually scolding in tone — that revealed Fetterman was diagnosed with atrial fibrillation in 2017 but didn't follow up with doctors or take his meds, per the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Fetterman's also been diagnosed with cardiomyopathy. But the doctor said Fetterman is taking his health seriously now and should be OK to campaign and govern. (It's striking that Oz may hit the campaign trail before Fetterman after all — the opposite of what most expected on election night.) 2. WHY GUN RESTRICTIONS NEVER PASS: Rep. CHRIS JACOBS (R-N.Y.) abruptly dropped his reelection bid Friday, only a week after abandoning party orthodoxy to back new limits on guns, including an assault weapons ban. Jacobs' stance in the wake of mass shootings in Texas and nearby Buffalo, N.Y., elicited swift backlash from local Republicans, pro-gun rights groups and DONALD TRUMP JR. "We have a problem in our country in terms of both our major parties," Jacobs said Friday. "If you stray from a party position, you are annihilated." More from NYT's Nicholas Fandos and Jesse McKinley. 3. A JAN. 6 REPRIEVE: The Justice Department has decided not to charge MARK MEADOWS and DAN SCAVINO with contempt of Congress for defying subpoenas from the House Jan. 6 committee, NYT's Alan Feuer and Luke Broadwater scooped. That decision — a marked difference from how prosecutors handled PETER NAVARRO and STEVE BANNON — appeared to hinge on Meadows' and Scavino's engagement with the committee and/or their stronger claims to privilege as top White House officials. 4. CHAOS FOR THE MICHIGAN GOP: The Michigan Supreme Court sent frontrunner JAMES CRAIG and other Republican gubernatorial candidates packing Friday, refusing to reinstate them on the primary ballot over fraudulent signatures on their nominating petitions. That leaves the party's efforts to take on Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER in flux. More from the Detroit Free Press 5. HEADS UP: 53-year-old Michigan man and former NYC cop JEROME FELIPE was arrested outside the Capitol on Friday with "a fake badge, a BB gun, body armor, high capacity magazines and other ammunition." Not many details yet on why he was there,The Detroit News reports. 6. REVISE YOUR CALENDARS: Biden's planned swing through Saudi Arabia and Israel this month has been postponed to July as part of a larger Middle East trip, NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Josh Lederman scooped. Biden got in hot water this week over reports that he planned to meet with Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, though the reasons for this delay weren't immediately clear. Related (and major) investigation: "Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen have been called war crimes. Many relied on U.S. support," by WaPo's Joyce Sohyun Lee, Meg Kelly and Atthar Mirza: "A joint Washington Post analysis reveals for the first time that the United States supported the majority of air force squadrons involved in the Saudi coalition's years-old air campaign." 7. BOMBSHELL GITMO TESTIMONY: JAMES MITCHELL, the psychologist who famously helped develop the Bush-era "enhanced interrogation techniques," said for the first time in court that former CIA Director GINA HASPEL watched waterboarding happen at a CIA black site in Thailand, NYT's Carol Rosenberg and Julian Barnes report. He said she didn't take part directly. Haspel's law firm and the CIA declined to comment. 8. ALABAMA AWAITS: In the GOP Senate runoff between KATIE BRITT and Rep. MO BROOKS this month, Trump is considering weighing in to pick a winner, but he's torn between the two, Natalie Allison reports this morning. After falling out of Trump world's good graces, Brooks is back in contention, with his recent lies about the 2020 election pleasing Trump. Yet Britt seems to lead in polling and has the support of retiring Sen. RICHARD SHELBY. "For Trump, Alabama is an important state to get right in the wake of a series of losses in three gubernatorial primaries. It's a conservative bastion that he easily won twice, but where his endorsement record is mixed — and in need of vindication." 9. MOMENTUM ON PRIVACY BILL: Bipartisan congressional leaders unveiled a deal Friday on major legislation that would create online privacy rights and restrict companies' use of people's data. But there's at least one big hurdle: Senate Commerce Chair MARIA CANTWELL (D-Wash.) hasn't signed on, as she crafts her own version. Among the sticking points is that Cantwell wants to make it easier for consumers to sue, a tough pill for Republicans to swallow. "The emerging rift could prove to be temporary, and backers of the bipartisan draft hope that Sen. Cantwell can be brought on board," WSJ's John McKinnon reports. "But it is also possible that … the effort is doomed once again."
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | CLICKER — "The nation's cartoonists on the week in politics," edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — "Trial Diary: A Journalist Sits on a Baltimore Jury," by ProPublica's Alec MacGillis: "Could 12 strangers agree on justice in Baltimore, a city riddled with killings and distrust of the police, in a shooting case where the victim was an actor on the legendary drama 'The Wire'?" — "The Plot to Out Ronald Reagan," by James Kirchick in POLITICO Magazine, adapted from his new book, "Secret City": "A group of Republicans tried to stymie what they alleged was a nefarious homosexual network within the campaign of their own party's standard-bearer. More than 40 years later, the story can finally be told." — "Time Has Proved the Slow-Riot Theory of Mass Shootings," by The Atlantic's David French: "We don't actually know how to solve the crisis." — "'I'm Still Alive but Sh*t Is Getting Wild': Inside the Siege of the Amarula," Outside magazine: "When vast gas reserves were discovered off the idyllic coast of northern Mozambique, a crew of roughnecks flew in from around the world to make their fortunes. But in March 2021, Islamist rebels attacked, and the foreigners and thousands of Mozambicans were abandoned. Two hundred holed up at the Amarula Lodge, where the expats faced a choice: save themselves, or risk it all to save everyone. As oil and gas fuel a new war in Europe, Alex Perry pieces together, shot by shot, a stunning morality tale for the global economy." — "How My Hometown Produced a Jan. 6 Sedition Suspect," by Caitlin Chandler in WaPo Magazine: "One writer discovers her small Virginia town's underside of conspiracy, guns and anti-government belief." — "'You got up and you died,'" London Review of Books: "Madeleine Schwartz at the Bataclan trial." — "How Ukraine's Greatest Novelist Is Fighting for His Country," by Giles Harvey in the NYT Magazine: "Andrey Kurkov has spent his life writing about realities so absurd they defy satire. It was perfect preparation for this moment."
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Trump administration alumni Brett Talley and Alice Lacour's quasi-anonymous, popular true crime podcast has stirred controversy as listeners discover their identities. NEW NOMINEES — The White House announced several new nominees, including Nate Fick as ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, Daniel Rosenblum as ambassador to Kazakhstan, Kathleen Kavalec as ambassador to Romania, Richard Delmar as IG of the Treasury Department, Karla Gilbride as general counsel of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and Terrence Edwards as IG for the National Reconnaissance Office. STAFFING UP — Lt. Gen. Darryl Williams has been recommended to the White House as the next commander of U.S. Army Europe/Africa, Paul McLeary reports. … The State Department announced Dorothy McAuliffe as the new special representative for global partnerships. She's a former first lady of Virginia. More TRUMP ALUMNI — Jeffrey Clark, whose efforts to cast doubt on the 2020 election led to Trump trying to install him as acting A.G. in January 2021, is joining Russ Vought's Center for Renewing America, per Axios' Jonathan Swan. TRANSITIONS — Miguel Ayala will be comms director for Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.). He previously was comms director for Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.). … Natasha Silva is now senior director of federal government relations at the National MS Society. She previously was legislative director for Rep. Bill Keating (D-Mass.), and is a Stephen Lynch alum. … … Joanna Taylor is now director of comms and marketing at Generation Citizen. She previously was senior comms manager at the National Immigration Forum. … Rayna V. Farrell has been named manager of corporate comms at Bechtel. She most recently was deputy head of comms at the Business Roundtable. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) … Reps. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and Jim Baird (R-Ind.) … NBC's Emily Gold … POLITICO's Traci Schweikert and Chase Sutton … E&E News' Carlos Anchondo … Scott Tranter … Protocol's Sydney Salazar and Chris Fong … Camden Stuebe of Free the Facts … Joey Coon of the Niskanen Center … WaPo's Colby Itkowitz … ProPublica's Justin Elliott … Amy Surber … Koch Industries' Steve Lombardo … David Bolger … Meta's Ryan Daniels … Gopuff's Jason Attermann … John Arundel of Perdicus Communications … Mike Murphy … Pangiam's Andrew Meehan … Mort Zuckerman … John O'Connell (77) … Amelia Showalter THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): CNN "State of the Union": Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo … Denver Riggleman. Panel: Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), George Conway, Ashley Allison and Scott Jennings. MSNBC "The Sunday Show": House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) … Rep. Ted Deutch (D-Fla.) … Stacey Stevenson … Daniel Goldman … Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) … Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas) … Gene Sperling. FOX "Fox News Sunday," guest-anchored by John Roberts: House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) … Gene Sperling. Panel: Katie Pavlich, Jacqui Heinrich, Josh Holmes and Marie Harf. CBS "Face the Nation": Kansas City, Mo., Mayor Quinton Lucas … Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) … Walter Koroshetz … Betsey Stevenson … new polling with Anthony Salvanto. ABC "This Week": Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg … Rep. Tom Rice (R-S.C.). Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Maggie Haberman and Julie Pace. CNN "Inside Politics": Panel: Molly Ball, Seung Min Kim, Melanie Zanona and Hans Nichols. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Correction: Wednesday's Playbook listed outdated job information for Mark Green.
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