| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Russia has faced a dizzying series of setbacks in its war with Ukraine over the last week, leaving western officials and analysts concerned about the fallout. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | HAPPENING TODAY — KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will hold her first briefing as White House press secretary at 2:30 p.m. The White House wants to talk about its new housing policy, which just came off embargo at 5 AM. But given the events in Buffalo (where Biden will travel on Tuesday), Ukraine, the new Biden-Bezos spat, important primaries happening in five states on Tuesday (which the AP says is "a referendum on Biden's leadership of the Democratic Party") and Biden's trip to Asia on Thursday, reporters may have other things on their minds. HAPPENING TOMORROW — The House holds the first hearing on UFOs since 1969. (Also good fodder for Karine's first day! What does she think this thing is?) WHAT WAPO REPORTERS WERE SLACKING ABOUT SUNDAY — "Jeff Bezos Criticizes Joe Biden in Twitter Spat Over Inflation," by WSJ's Tarini Parti and Bradley Olson. Exchange No. 1:
- Biden's original tweet: "You want to bring down inflation? Let's make sure the wealthiest corporations pay their fair share."
- Bezos' response: "The newly created Disinformation Board should review this tweet, or maybe they need to form a new Non Sequitur Board instead. Raising corp taxes is fine to discuss. Taming inflation is critical to discuss. Mushing them together is just misdirection."
Exchange No. 2:
- Biden's original tweet: "Under my predecessor, the deficit increased every single year. This year, we're on track to cut the deficit by $1.5 trillion — the biggest one-year decline ever. It matters to families, because reducing the deficit is one of the main ways we can ease inflationary pressures."
- Bezos, adding on to a withering response from @ne0liberal: "In fact, the administration tried hard to inject even more stimulus into an already over-heated, inflationary economy and only [Sen. JOE] MANCHIN saved them from themselves. Inflation is a regressive tax that most hurts the least affluent. Misdirection doesn't help the country."
The White House responds: "It doesn't require a huge leap to figure out why one of the wealthiest individuals on Earth opposes an economic agenda for the middle class that cuts some of the biggest costs families face, fights inflation for the long haul, and adds to the historic deficit reduction the President is achieving by asking the richest taxpayers and corporations to pay their fair share. It's also unsurprising that this tweet comes after the President met with labor organizers, including Amazon employees." (h/t WaPo's Jeff Stein) THE WEST'S NEW FEAR: WHAT IF UKRAINE WINS? — Russia has faced a dizzying series of setbacks in its war with Ukraine over the last week:
- Sweden and Finland are being fast-tracked into NATO membership, which means Russia will soon share an 810-mile border with NATO. More from NYT
- Ukrainian troops pushed the Russians from the outskirts of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, and are now approaching the Russian border. Latest from Reuters
- Russia suffered "catastrophic" losses during a failed river crossing on May 11, according to The Institute for the Study of War, which notes that "the military incompetence displayed in that crossing have shaken the confidence" of influential Russian military bloggers.
- The UK Ministry of Defense said that the Russian offensive in the eastern Donbas region, the focus of Russian firepower since its retreat from Kyiv, has "lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule." The Brits also claimed that Putin has lost one-third of the troops he sent into Ukraine since the start of the February invasion.
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Learn what's next. | | | On Sunday, JENS STOLTENBERG, NATO's secretary general, summed up the implications of these developments: "Ukraine can win this war." And that is exactly the problem according to a growing number of western officials and analysts who fear the fallout from what French President EMMANUEL MACRON called the "humiliation" of Russia. Macron is not alone. Matthew Karnitschnig, reports this morning: "After weeks spent fretting over what would happen if Russia crushed Ukraine, Western European leaders are now worried about what might happen if Ukraine actually wins. … One big concern is that a Ukrainian win could destabilize Russia, making it even more unpredictable and putting a normalization of energy links further out of reach. That's why some western European capitals quietly favor a 'face-saving' resolution to the conflict, even if it costs Ukraine some territory." The leaders of France, Germany and Italy are all stressing a ceasefire and peace deal at precisely the moment when Ukraine has reversed the tide. Karnitschnig notes that their fears of victory put them out of step with the Biden administration, which in recent weeks has talked about how Ukraine, in the words of Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, "can win." In an important column over the weekend, NYT's Ross Douthat noted that the possibility of Ukrainian advances would make nuclear escalation "much more likely": "We know that Russian military doctrine envisions using tactical nuclear weapons defensively, to turn the tide in a losing war. We should assume that Putin and his circle regard total defeat in Ukraine as a regime-threatening scenario. Combine those realities with a world where the Russians are suddenly being routed, their territorial gains evaporating, and you have the most nuclear-shadowed military situation since our naval blockade of Cuba in 1962." Meanwhile, the Senate is expected to approve the $40 billion package of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine this week. In an interview with NPR on Thursday, Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, who was in Kyiv over the weekend meeting with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY , said he was not worried about the growing number of Republicans, especially in the House, who are opposed to further assistance for Ukraine and that he and Biden agreed on the issue. "So we're all on the same team on this," McConnell said. "The Russians need to lose. The Ukrainians need to win." Further reading: "McConnell takes on MAGA with Ukraine visit," by Burgess Everett Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 11:45 a.m.: Biden will award Public Safety Officer Medals of Valor. — 3:30 p.m.: Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Greek PM KYRIAKOS MITSOTAKIS. — 5 p.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will host a reception for Mitsotakis and his wife, MAREVA . White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will hold a briefing at 2:30 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up the motion to proceed to the Ukraine supplemental appropriations package, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m. THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Tuesday: The president and the first lady will visit Buffalo, N.Y. Later, the Bidens will host a reception for Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month in the Rose Garden. — Thursday: Biden will depart for Seoul, South Korea, for his first Asia trip as president. — Friday: Biden will arrive in Seoul, where he will stay until Sunday, when he is scheduled to travel to Tokyo.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A man pays his respects outside the scene of a shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, N.Y. on Sunday. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS 2022: THE 'DISORDER' ELECTION — Early this morning, WaPo published a big package on the 2022 elections , walking through the key races, polling and what it all means for both Biden and DONALD TRUMP. "Every election has a story," Dan Balz and Marianna Sotomayor write in their 30,000-foot view of the landscape. In 2010, it was the Tea Party rebellion to BARACK OBAMA . In 2018, it was the backlash to Trump, "fueled by the energy and fury of suburban women." What's the story of 2022? "Analysts point to a nation weary at a time in which there seems no escape from disorder, whether it be the long bout with the coronavirus or soaring prices or rising crime rates in cities or surging crossings of undocumented immigrants at the southern border. Added to all of that is the brutal war of aggression in Ukraine launched without provocation by Russian President Vladimir Putin, a conflict that is redrawing the international order. … "For most of this year, 2022 has been an election about broken confidence between the president and many of the voters who helped elect him; rising inflation that the administration initially underestimated; a Democratic Party whose cultural liberalism has met resistance outside of the biggest cities; and suburban voters, particularly women, who shifted to the Democrats during Trump's administration and now are up for grabs. Whether the Supreme Court changes that with its pending abortion decision is the major, unanswered, question." FETTERMAN SUFFERS STROKE — Days ahead of his expected victory in the Democratic primary for Senate, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN suffered a stroke on Friday that hospitalized him. Fetterman said in a statement on Sunday that he's on his way toward a "full recovery" after doctors successfully removed the blood clot that caused the stroke. "He vowed to hit the campaign trail again soon, though it was unclear whether that would occur before Tuesday's election," the Philly Inquirer's Julia Terruso and Sean Collins Walsh write . "Political observers said Sunday that news of the stroke was unlikely to affect Fetterman's chances, and Fetterman said he remained confident of his chances of winning." Fetterman's full statement TOP ED — "How Democrats Can Hang on to Congress in 2022," by John Della Volpe for the NYT DEM CIVIL WAR FUELS CASH INFLUX — Even as House Dems are almost guaranteed to lose their majority, they're drawing in record cash ahead of this year's midterms — much of it aimed at steering the direction of the party amid a battery of primaries pitting moderates against progressives, Elena Schneider writes. "Super PACs and other organizations have already dropped more than $53 million in Democratic House primaries this year, according to OpenSecrets, with four more months of nominating contests to go. The outside spending has zoomed past the approximately $30 million spent in each of 2018 and 2020, much of it focused on safely blue seats, where different wings of the Democratic Party are battling to elect primary winners likely to go to Congress — and stay there for years." 2024 WATCH — One year after getting booed and jeered at a GOP event in Florida, former VP MIKE PENCE is executing a carefully constructed comeback, Adam Wren reports . "Since POLITICO reported on the Supreme Court's draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, Pence has moved to channel a newly simpatico GOP base. He is finding purposeful ways to contrast with Trump on issues ranging from highlighting his own decadeslong record of anti-abortion advocacy to calling for a muscular response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. … And he's embraced familiar terrain on the culture wars, launching his own so-called freedom agenda ahead of the midterms, focusing on issues like parental choice in the classroom." THE WHITE HOUSE BARK VS. BITE — Jonathan Lemire examines Biden's recent turn in messaging on the state of the Republican Party and the apparent abandonment of the administration's bipartisan dreams. "There was no single moment that prompted Biden to change course, the people close to him said. But as Republicans attacked his efforts to control surging inflation, the president chose to respond in kind. … Privately, Biden has expressed frustration with media coverage of his administration and believes that the press — and Americans at large — have been too quick to gloss over the damage Trump did to the country. He also has taken to telling aides that he no longer recognizes the GOP, which he now views as an existential threat to the nation's democracy." CONSOLER-IN-CHIEF — Biden on Sunday spoke at a law enforcement ceremony and addressed the deadly shooting in Buffalo, N.Y.: "Biden, speaking at the ceremony for the second time as president, did not address the calls by New York officials — Gov. KATHY HOCHUL and Buffalo Mayor BYRON BROWN — for strong federal action to end what Brown said is the "uniquely American phenomenon" of mass shootings. The president also did not mention gun control efforts that have stalled in Washington," AP's Darlene Superville writes.
| | | | A message from Facebook:   | | | CONGRESS VAN HOLLEN SUFFERS STROKE — Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) said on Sunday night that he suffered a stroke. "Earlier today, an angiogram indicated that I had experienced a minor stroke in the form of a small venous tear at the back of my head. Fortunately, I have been informed that there are no long-term effects or damage as a result of this incident, but my doctors have advised that out of an abundance of caution I remain under observation for a few days," Van Hollen said in a statement. More from CBS Baltimore … Van Hollen's full statement MACE'S MOMENT — Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.) has thus far struggled to find her footing on the Hill and has drawn the ire of former President DONALD TRUMP, who is backing her primary challenger in South Carolina. "On top of that, a half-dozen former staffers, all speaking candidly on condition of anonymity, described Mace in interviews as being so fixated on her image that she has trouble managing her office. That reputation is starting to stick, getting discussed in private by some GOP colleagues, according to four House Republicans who have mentioned her office to POLITICO," Olivia Beavers reports. BEYOND THE BELTWAY HOW WE GOT HERE — NYT's Nicholas Confessore and Karen Yourish write about "replacement theory" — a right-wing belief and "engine of racist terror" that serves as the common thread between three recent mass shootings, including in Buffalo this weekend. "In sometimes more muted forms, the fear it crystallizes — of a future America in which white people are no longer the numerical majority — has become a potent force in conservative media and politics, where the theory has been borrowed and remixed to attract audiences, retweets and small-dollar donations. … "Yet in recent months, versions of the same ideas, sanded down and shorn of explicitly anti-Black and anti-Semitic themes, have become commonplace in the Republican Party — spoken aloud at congressional hearings, echoed in Republican campaign advertisements and embraced by a growing array of right-wing candidates and media personalities." THE LATEST FROM BUFFALO — NYT's Troy Closson spoke to residents about the shooting on Saturday: "One day after a quiet, residential neighborhood in western New York became victim to the worst racist attack in the United States in recent years, scenes from the afternoon served as small windows into a collective anguish and anger that did not originate with the gunfire." MORE HORRORS IN AMERICA — "One person was killed and five others were wounded Sunday after a gunman opened fire on a Taiwanese church congregation in Laguna Woods," per the LA Times. "The victims were described as mostly Asian and mostly of Taiwanese descent, authorities said. All victims were adults. The oldest was 92. A law enforcement source said officials believe the suspect was a 68-year-old Asian man who is originally from Las Vegas." — "Two men were killed and three others were critically injured Sunday after a shooting at a crowded flea market in north Houston," KHOU 11 reports. "Investigators said they believe all five people were involved in the disturbance that led up to the shooting. Officials said they all appear to be in their early- to mid-20s and likely knew each other. They do not believe the shooting was random."
| | | | DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Nancy Mace's aides told her "we were going door knocking and shooting b-roll." Instead, her boyfriend was at the door with an engagement ring for her. "I said YES!!!" the congresswoman tweeted. Cynthia Lummis was booed during her commencement speech at the University of Wyoming after saying " the existence of two sexes, male and female" was a "fundamental scientific truth." The senator later apologized: "it was never my intention to make anyone feel un-welcomed or disrespected." TRANSITION — Ivy English is now a legislative correspondent for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). She previously was a legislative correspondent for Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.). ENGAGED — Hunter Goh, a director at PLUS Communications and Baker Group Strategies and NRSC alum, and Sami Gilkes, a managing director at Targeted Victory and also an NRSC alum, got engaged on Saturday at the D.C. botanical gardens surrounded by their parents and close friends. Pic WEDDINGS — Theo Meyer, a national political reporter for WaPo and a co-author of the Early 202 newsletter and a POLITICO alum, and Stephanie Asplundh , an assistant public defender for the state of Maryland, got married on Wednesday. The couple started dating in 2018 after they kissed on the dance floor at Eli Stokols and Elena Schneider's wedding reception in Greensboro, N.C. They eloped at the Manhattan Marriage Bureau and are hiking through the Julian Alps in Slovenia for their honeymoon. Pic — Jon Conradi, managing director at FP1 Strategies, and Kelsey Guyselman, deputy policy director for the Senate Commerce Committee Republicans, got married on Saturday at Saint Joseph's on Capitol Hill followed by reception at Hummingbird in Old Town Alexandria. The couple had their first date at Boxcar Tavern in Eastern Market and live in Vienna, Va., with Jon's son Christopher and Kelsey's dog Rosie. Pic … Another pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alexandra Veitch, lead for public policy across the Americas for YouTube and a Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama White House alum, and Chris Mewett , legislative director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), on Friday welcomed Lachlan Veitch Mewett, who came in at 9 lbs, 6 oz and joins 3-year-old sister Theodora. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) and Dwight Evans (D-Pa.) … Dan Coats … Minyon Moore … FTI Consulting's Jeff Bechdel … Bobby Frederick … Elias Law Group's Kate Keane … Andrew Mamo … PBS' Sara Just … Bradley Bottoms … Democratic Women's Caucus' Michelle Moreno-Silva … Emily Aden … Lyft's Jodi Seth … JoDee Winterhof … former Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) … Jay Perron … Brookings' Michael O'Hanlon … Jake Sticka … Andie Pivarunas … Marissa Lorenzetti of the Madison Group … Patrick Delaney … Olivia Kelley Delgado … Tucker Carlson … CBS' Rob Legare … Michael Wear … Christine Delargy … former Connecticut Gov. Lowell Weicker (91) … David Meadvin Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
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