| | | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | Just over six months until the midterm elections, President Joe Biden's campaign is shifting gears to further contrast themselves with Republicans. | Nathan Howard/Getty Images | | | | | DRIVING THE DAY | | It's May 2, just over six months until the midterm elections, which are generally a referendum on the president's performance. President JOE BIDEN is in rough shape. Let's look at how it happened, and how he hopes to prevent a wipeout … 1. How they got here: As early as April 2021, JOHN ANZALONE — Biden's top pollster — saw the writing on the wall. In a series of memos over the ensuing months, he tried to warn the president about the growing liabilities posed by immigration, inflation and crime, report NYT's Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns.
- The warning: "Immigration is a growing vulnerability for the president,' John Anzalone and his team warned in a package of confidential polling, voter surveys and recommendations compiled for the White House. 'Voters do not feel he has a plan to address the situation on the border, and it is starting to take a toll.' Within a month, there was another stark warning. 'Nearly nine in 10 registered voters are also concerned about increasing inflation,' said another memo obtained by The New York Times."
- And yet … "Despite the early warnings from his pollster, Mr. Biden and his top advisers have struggled to prevent either issue from becoming a major political liability. His economic team said inflation was temporary. Turmoil among his immigration aides delayed any serious action to address the border. For all the ambition of Mr. Biden's domestic agenda, his pollster also warned him that most voters did not have a clear sense of his economic proposals."
2. Where they go from here: Biden's Democrats "have struggled to overcome historical headwinds and worrisome economic trends in the lead up to the midterms," report Christopher Cadelago and Jonathan Lemire. "So aides are scheming up something else: Turning the campaign into a contrast with DONALD TRUMP and the Republicans."
- Variable No. 1: new Jan. 6 revelations — Team Biden is "eagerly awaiting potentially explosive findings from the Jan. 6 select committee and hope those discoveries can inflame a battle brewing within the GOP over former Trump's legacy and power."
- Variable No. 2: Trump's possible return to Twitter — "Biden advisers have also tried to game out this week the possibility of one particular October surprise. ELON MUSK's purchase of Twitter raised the chance that Trump could be reinstated to the social media platform. … The consensus among Biden aides about Trump's possible return: it could cut both ways. While the former president would eat up an extraordinary amount of political oxygen, it's also possible that he would push the Big Lie or feud with fellow Republicans and damage the GOP's otherwise strong chances of regaining at least one house of Congress."
- Variable No. 3: Dems' tendency to be in disarray — The White House's lack of coordination on messaging matters "has left outside officials frustrated. In particular, of late, Democrats felt empty-handed when asked to defend the administration's position on voting rights, the president's legislative agenda, and his decision to rescind Title 42 …"
Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from Amazon: Roughly 10,000 women give birth every day in the U.S. Lack of access to paid leave means 2,500 of them are back to work within 10 days. Amazon's paid leave policy provides up to 20 weeks for new parents, like Victoria, whose doctor ordered bed rest before her daughter's birth. | | TRUMP WORLD BRACES FOR TOUGH MAY — All eyes will be on Ohio on Tuesday, as Trump's post-presidential sway over the GOP will face its first major test in the Buckeye State's Senate primary. But while Trump endorsee J.D. VANCE appears to be sitting pretty, allies of the former president are bracing for a rocky month. This morning, our colleague David Siders details the "four-week stretch of primaries" where "Trump-endorsed candidates are slogging through difficult races" or "running far behind." Here's a look at a few of them beyond Ohio, as well as the dates to watch: May 10: Nebraska and West Virginia:
May 17: Idaho and Pennsylvania:
- "In Idaho, Gov. BRAD LITTLE is polling more than 30 percentage points ahead of his Trump-endorsed primary opponent."
- In Pennsylvania: As our Holly Otterbein wrote over the weekend, despite winning Trump's endorsement, MEHMET OZ hasn't exactly caught fire, and remains in a statistical tie with DAVID MCCORMICK in the Keystone state's GOP Senate primary."
May 24: Georgia:
- "In Georgia, Gov. BRIAN KEMP — one of Trump's most well-worn punching bags — may not only beat Trump's endorsed candidate, former Sen. DAVID PERDUE, but do so by a wide enough margin to avoid a runoff." Early voting begins today. … Further reading: "Kemp faces attacks from 4 rivals in last debate of GOP primary," by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Shannon McCaffrey
The big picture: "The losses Trump is poised to take this month could still do significant damage to him — providing the first ballot-tested, post-presidential confirmation that Trump, while the most important animating factor in the GOP, is not the only force moving primary voters. … [I]n Pennsylvania, one longtime Republican Party official said, 'What if his candidates don't win? What does that say? I think it could be the beginning of the end of an era. '" Speaking of Trump endorsements … 'J.D. MANDEL' — Ahead of the Ohio primary, Trump fumbled Vance's name at a rally Sunday. The former president called Vance "J.P." — then settled on "J.D. Mandel," swapping his last name with that of his top primary opponent, JOSH MANDEL. Right away, Republicans trying to beat Vance, who has surged in the polls with Trump's endorsement, took advantage. MIKE GIBBONS sent this message to donors Sunday night: "To be fair, you really can't blame Trump. No one knows who the real JD Vance is, as his views change faster than the weather in Ohio." Gibbons' email 2022 WATCH — Top Republicans are confident that the GOP will pick up "30 or 40" House seats in the midterms. Amid chatter of a growing red wave, Eugene sat down with GOP strategists to ask what exactly they'll need to do (and not do) to make it a reality. The answer, they said, is a combination of taking advantage of Democratic missteps, running pristine new candidates and — in some instances — gauging just the right amount of Trumpiness for the district. In our new video series, "The Midterm View," Eugene (along with JC Whittington and Monica Akhtar) keeps you in the loop on all the strategic choices and hot issues driving the 2022 midterms — and takes you behind the scenes with the people working to sway the electorate and win power in November. Click here to watch
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| | | A message from Amazon: Amazon offers up to 20 weeks of fully paid leave for hourly employees, including four weeks before the baby is born. | | BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 1:45 p.m.: Biden will present the Presidential Rank Awards in a virtual ceremony. — 4 p.m.: Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will host a reception to celebrate Eid al-Fitr. Second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will also attend. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 2:30 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up JOSHUA FROST's nomination as assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m. THE HOUSE is out. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Tuesday: The president will travel to Alabama to visit a Lockheed Martin facility. — Thursday: The Bidens will host a Cinco de Mayo reception in the Rose Garden.
| | HAPPENING NOW - MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: Go inside the 25th annual Milken Institute Global Conference with our special edition Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the world's most influential gatherings. Stay up to speed with the latest from #MIGlobal, which brings together 3,000 of the world's most powerful leaders and features 700+ speakers representing more than 80 countries. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
| Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks to media together with a congressional delegation after a trip to Ukraine on Sunday in Rzeszow, Poland. | Omar Marques/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | THE WHITE HOUSE EURO TRIP — Jill Biden will soon become the latest member of the administration to head to Europe: Her office announced that FLOTUS is slated to visit Romania and Slovakia from May 5-9, where she'll meet with educators, service members and displaced Ukrainians. CONGRESS DEMS SKEPTICAL OF MANCHIN'S BIPARTISAN CLIMATE PUSH — Sen. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) has given nearly 300 speeches begging Washington to act on climate change — and he isn't impressed with the GOP's sudden suggestion that they're open to a bipartisan climate deal, as Burgess Everett, Anthony Adragna and Marianne LeVine write this morning. He's far from alone. Across the party, Democrats are rolling their eyes — or grimacing — at Sen. JOE MANCHIN's (D-W.Va.) decision to suddenly want to find a bipartisan climate deal instead of using reconciliation to deal with the matter. More from the story: "A small bipartisan group of lawmakers will gather again on Monday evening to hash out whether a deal is possible to combat climate change and modernize U.S. energy policy. The meeting comes at a critical decision point for President Joe Biden and his slim majorities in Congress. Most Democrats believe they have just a few weeks to finish their legislative agenda before midterm politics derail everything, yet … Manchin started trying to recruit Republicans to work on energy."
| | A message from Amazon: "The doctor said that the reason she stayed to term is because I had that four weeks," Victoria said. | | ALL POLITICS ONLY THE YOUNG — POLITICO's newest national political reporter, Adam Wren, reports from Indianapolis on one GOP senator who blasted Trump for Jan. 6 — and appears to be totally skirting any political punishment for it: TODD YOUNG. (He doesn't even have a primary challenger.) "Young is one of only four Senate GOP incumbents without the golden ticket of a Donald Trump endorsement this year. He has a record of taking some decidedly non-MAGA friendly positions and said Trump bore responsibility for Jan. 6 — in a state Trump carried twice by double-digits," Wren writes. PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION THE NATIONAL ZOO — First it was the rabid fox on Capitol Hill. Now, a new animal is on the prowl in D.C. WSJ's James Grimaldi has the info on the string of wild turkey attacks hitting the nation's capital. — And as if that weren't enough: "The tick that makes people allergic to red meat is in D.C.," by WaPo's Kevin Ambrose
| | INTRODUCING DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED: Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | We were out and about all weekend at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner and the many events surrounding it. We then spent Sunday kibitzing with some of our favorite reporters and sources, and got a sense of what official Washington was privately buzzing about as the weekend wound down. Here's some of what we heard:
- You've probably read the trend pieces about how cigarette smoking has made a modest return among N.Y. and D.C. millennials. It's true among a small group at the Biden White House as well. But there's a twist: They smoke menthols.
- The left's weird Twitter obsessions: Trevor Noah's routine was widely praised, but there were a few clunkers that only the most extremely online lefty media addicts could understand. A question on some minds: How did so many of Matt Negrin's weird Twitter obsessions become Noah punchlines that didn't land?
- From Joe Biden's cutting-room floor: The comedy portion of Biden's remarks was relatively short, but well-received. We hear one joke that didn't make it in was a line about OnlyFans, because nobody wanted to explain what it was to the president.
- Best spotted: Antony Blinken and Kim Kardashian in conversation in the Hilton ballroom.
- Biggest head-scratcher: Noah repeatedly referring to people in the audience who weren't in the audience.
- Most surprising Biden reaction: His cackling at Noah's line about Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) being "openly bisexual but a closeted Republican."
- Fashion faux-POTUS: As you may have noticed, during his remarks Biden's bowtie became noticeably and distractingly askew. An awkward scramble ensued among staffers to relay that to him as he spoke. Someone finally got him the message by pantomiming the issue just below the podium, where photographers were assembled.
- Best celeb-staffing-a-staffer moment: Sophia Bush escorting press secretary Jen Psaki out of the dinner while blocking people in their path. Bush: "I have my heels on. Nobody can mess with us."
- Cringiest overheard from the parties: Bush at UTA's Friday bash at Fiola Mare, obsessing to her handler about whether she was at the right party.
- The star power at this year's dinner was dim. Hollywood had a pretty small turnout. So this may be remembered as the year that the event became somewhat de-celebrified. Which isn't such a bad thing.
- The weekend's Iron Man: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.). "Leahy is 82 years old, and yet, I saw him at 1 a.m. at the NBC WHCD after-party at The Kennedy Center, and then again just a few hours later at the POLITICO brunch. The man is a force of nature," one tipster wrote to Playbook. "For all the commentary about the WHCD, I think what's most special about the entire weekend is the opportunity to share special, unique moments with people like Senator Leahy who carry with them a distinct understanding of our modern history. … It's the moments that aren't captured on our iPhones or posted on Instagram that makes this weekend special."
WaPo's Jada Yuan has a good wrap-up of the weekend with some fun deets and anecdotes. Our favorite: "Martha Stewart, a guest at the Daily Mail's table, told her hosts: 'This is like my sixth time or seventh time [here]. I've never been at a table so far back before. The view is fabulous, though.' She was so far back that the doors to the kitchen were swinging open every five seconds next to her chair." SPOTTED at CNN's Political Hangover Brunch on Sunday: Bakari Sellers, Phil Rucker, Dana Bash, Audie Cornish, Don Lemon, Jake Tapper, John Avlon, John McCarthy, David Chalian, Josh Dawsey, Ned Price, Matt Hill, Brian Stelter, Zachary Cohen, Alex Marquardt, Connor Goddard, Liz Johnson, Anthony Coley, Ben Haas and Christine Romans. SPOTTED at the annual POLITICO Garden Brunch hosted by Elena and Robert Allbritton on Sunday, which brought the WHCD weekend festivities to a close: Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Cabinet Secretary Evan Ryan, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), British Ambassador Karen Pierce, French Ambassador Philippe Etienne, José Andrés, Sophia Bush, press secretary Jen Psaki, Mike Donilon, Rob Flaherty, Margaret Carlson, Jonathan Martin and Betsy Fischer Martin, Scott Mulhauser and Kara Carscaden, Susan Rice, Alex Burns and MJ Lee, Linda Bloss-Baum, Yohannes Abraham, Parita Shah, Mathias Döpfner, Francesca Chambers, Senay Bulbul, Jonathan Capehart, Andrea Mitchell, Carol Joynt, Fred and Ginny Ryan, Bret and Amy Baier, Ben and Ashley Chang, and Francesca Craig.
| Rodney Lamkey Jr. | IT'S MILLER TIME — Tim Miller, the former Republican operative-turned-Bulwark editor at large, has a book coming out in June: "Why We Did It: A Travelogue from the Republican Road to Hell." It promises to answer why so many prominent D.C. Republicans allowed Donald Trump to take over the GOP, using his own experiences as a "gay man working for homophobes to draw out comparisons to how my peers could've justified working for Trump." But what's more likely to get folks talking is him grouping his former colleagues (Sean Spicer, Reince Priebus, Elise Stefanik, Alyssa Farah and Caroline Wren, among others) into different categories of rationalization, including "Messiah Complex," "Demonizers," "Nerd Revengers," "Cartel Cashers" and "LOL Nothing Matters." (Contacted by Playbook, Miller wouldn't dish on who was assigned which category.) THE GREATEST CONN — WaPo's Damian Paletta is celebrating his Apple TV debut this week. A new documentary coming out Friday goes deep on a story he broke about Eric Conn, a West Virginia celebrity lawyer who was accused of "defrauding U.S. taxpayers of $550 million" through Social Security, using impoverished West Virginians to get filthy rich before escaping the country for a time,per a preview of the documentary. REMEMBERING MONDALE — In a belated memorial service for Walter Mondale on Sunday at the University of Minnesota, Biden said the former VP "helped him through some of the darkest days of his life," David Cohen writes. "'They helped me find my purpose in a sea of darkness and pain,' the president said of Mondale and his wife." A (NON-WHCD) SPOTTED: In Amelia Island, Fla., over the weekend, Republican Main Street Partnership PAC hosted their annual meeting, with guest speakers Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, former NRCC Chair Greg Walden, RMSP President Sarah Chamberlain, Charlie Cook and Congressional Leadership Fund President Dan Conston. In contrast to the party vibe of Washington this weekend, the group, which aims to help centrist Republicans get elected, held panels focused on supply-chain issues, building union relationships and energy and the environment. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — John Shelton is joining Mike Pence's c4, Advancing American Freedom, as a policy adviser. He previously was a legislative assistant for Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and is a Bill Posey alum. TRANSITIONS — Katharine Cooksey Noyes is now comms director for the Senate Republican Conference. She most recently was press secretary at the NRSC, and is a Mitch McConnell alum. … Zack DiGregorio is now deputy comms director for Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). He previously was national press secretary at Everytown for Gun Safety and is a Hub Project and Josh Gottheimer alum. … … Blake Adami is now a senior manager of federal policy at Snapchat. He previously led the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors' technology portfolio. … Gadi Ben-Yehuda is joining BAE Systems as director of digital and social media. He previously was director of social media at American Association for the Advancement of Science. ENGAGED — Jack Sterne, VP at SKDK, and Eliza Hamburger, a registered dietitian and diabetes specialist, got engaged in Red Hook, Brooklyn, on Friday. The two met through a mutual friend after college and began dating in 2018. Pic WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Justin Peligri, a producer at CNN, and Cory Combs, senior comms manager at Issue One, got married Saturday at Mountain Run Winery in Culpepper, Va. Pic — John Twomey of the Tiber Creek Group and Meghan Dugan, press secretary for the Senate Homeland Security Committee, got married Saturday at Veritas Vineyard in Charlottesville, Va.. The couple met while working for former Rep. Tom Price (R-Ga.) and both call Georgia home. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) … Mika Brzezinski … Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (54) … Steve Elmendorf … WSJ's Matt Murray … Jeff Butler … CNN's Poppy Harlow (4-0) … Karen Doyne … MSNBC's Jesse Rodriguez … Daniel Kroese … POLITICO's Andrew McGill, Andrew Atterbury and Justine Lore … Rick Stengel … E&E News' Nick Sobczyk … Megan Harrington … Russ Sullivan of Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck … Taylor Lioce … NRSC's T.W. Arrighi … Emily Tisch Sussman … BofA's Bess Evans … Twitter's Lauren Devoll … Nate Zimpher … Cogent Strategies' Will Bohlen … Joel Payne … Chieko Noguchi of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops … Protocol's Tomio Geron … Drew Florio … former Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker … Conchita Cruz … former Rep. Robert Turner (R-N.Y.) … Katie (Thompson) Sansone Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Bethany Irvine, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
| | A message from Amazon: Victoria faced the prospect that she might deliver prematurely if she didn't start bed rest. Amazon's paid leave policy made it possible for her to do just that. Victoria began her fully paid leave four weeks before her daughter's birth.
"The doctor said that the reason she stayed to term is because I had that four weeks of doing nothing," Victoria said. Amazon offers up to 20 weeks of fully paid leave for hourly employees. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | Follow us | | | |
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